The first big post-convention/primary poll has come out, and low and behold the entire ticket is six to seven points up on the Dem rivals. But wait . . . I thought Ken Cuccinelli was suppose to be a drag on the ticket, I thought he couldn't beat Steve Shannon?
What this poll shows me is that Republicans up and down Virginia are incredibly unified, and that the strength of the ticket is that it constitutes the spectrum of Virginia Republicans. And don't forget, no state has turned ticket-splitting into the artful that Virginia has, especially when it comes to electing Republicans. Democrats have swept all three offices three times ('81, '85, '89), but the Republicans have only done it once ('97) in the post-Byrd era. Routinely you'll see at least one holdout make like Andrew Miller in '77 and Jerry Kilgore in '01. So what this shows me is that Republicans in Virginia are, for the first time in a loooooong time, very unified behind this ticket.
As for the Dems, they have amassed a very strange ticket that has no coherency. Deeds is a rural state senator who's claim to fame seems to be that he's a "conservative" Democrat, but that doesn't jive very well with the increasingly progressive turn of Democrats both in Virginia and nationally. And you can't out conservative this GOP ticket, I'm sorry. Wagner has nothing positive in her background, unless you count massively underestimating the state debt and consistently proving useless when it came to finance, gaining the nomination because nobody else of substance would run. As for Shannon, he's in the strange place of trying to prove he's more law-and-order than Cuccinelli, and has a thin record of any accomplishment. Democrats have been winning in the 2000s by a combination of anti-Bushism, a perception of being conservative, and the GOP warring within itself. This year Bush is gone, these guys can't get tot he right of our ticket on anything, and clearly the GOP is unified behind its ticket.
I also wonder if there is something of an enthusiasm gap. My theory on winning elections is that its based on energy, what kind of energy is created by the base and by supporters. I believe that independent voters generally, in the end, want to be on the winning side and tend to swing towards the side with the most enthusiasm, organization, and energy. Our team has that right now on all ends of the GOP spectrum. Nothing about Deeds, Wagner, or Shannon seems to be exciting any Democrat but the most committed. I don't see either of these three inspiring voters to sway their way. All three are bland, unaccomplished, and have no base outside of their elected districts - there is nothing ideologically that seems to link the three the way it does on our side. All three of our candidates have statewide organizational experience (McD and Bolling in '05, and Cuccinelli w/ the marriage amendment '06).
That being said, its still only a six point lead and none of the GOP team are over 50% so anything can sway this election. McDonnell has done a good job so far running a structured, disciplined message . . . he clearly understands why Earley and Kilgore failed. Though "a jobs governor" might sound kind of hokey, its effective because it makes it easy for people to understand what he wants and what he stands for. He's defining himself before he gets defined. Four months out, we are where we want to be and its up to these three guys to really stay dialed in, work hard and get the message out.
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