So the candidates have been nominated for an abbreviated winter campaign that will commence to see who fills that state senate seat of Attorney General-elect Ken Cuccinelli. It will be a test of Republican strength, Democrat resilience, and how strong a hold Gov. Bob McDonnell has over Virginia politics now. It will also see if Republicans really have made the strides we think we have, or if the election last month was a rejection of the rural Old Virginia politics of Creigh Deeds.
The Democrats have presented us with Del. Dave Marsden. Many have laughed at the YouTube video "Ouch Mr. Speaker" and derided him as a carpetbagger. He's never had a strong hold on his district electorally. But he has run and he's won three times. Its nothing to sneeze at. While many snicker at his carpetbagging, I looked at his delegate district and see how much it overlaps the 37th. I see a guy in deep with the state Democrat party grand poo-bahs which will assure huge amounts of money funneled to this race.
In Steve Hunt, I see a committed grassroots conservative who has run for local before, he's won and he's lost. He's always been behind the scenes even when he was on the ballot. He's worked hard for others and there is not a Republican in Fairfax that I know that doesn't like Steve or his wife Monique. He has not been as successful a candidate as Marsden has, nor does he have the Richmond experience. Hunt has also had problems raising money in the past. But unlike Marsden, Hunt's path to the nomination did not come from party elders trampling down opponents, but rather in an open firehouse primary that got Republicans engaged and gave us a real winner.
When I analyze this race, something comes back to me over and over. The idea behind Marsden's candidacy seems to be geography. His district encompasses most of the Senate district, he knows the voters, etc. Republicans use to do this. Back in 2005 during the special election to fill Bill Mims's old seat, Republicans pushed through Mick Stanton because he was supposedly stronger than Randy Minchew or anyone else because he was a sitting pol. Mark Herring wasn't, but he was an active Democrat who was likable and effectively campaign on Tim Kaine's recent victory. The very same thing could play out in the 37th that played out in the 33rd. Marsden's perceived strenghts really aren't. He was elected by back room deal in 2005, wasn't contested in 2007, and almost got caught sleeping by a fiercely hard-campaigning Kerry Bolognese. There has never been a glowing endorsement of Dave Marsden in Fairfax, he's simply survived through connections he has locally in both parties.
But because its the only special election this winter, this contest will become more than just a local election. We have seen where the Marsden campaign will go . . . they will attack Steve for his conservative social views and his tenure on the school board. What really makes people mad about Steve's time on the School Board, by the way, was asking too many questions. You know, real riddles like "how much will this cost?" Or maybe, "is this needed?" You know, silly accountable things like that. This might be a replay of the general election where Creigh Deeds tried (and failed) to tar Bob McDonnell by social positions. Marsden will do the same to Steve Hunt, and with about as much guile and tact as Deeds did. That will be the first salvo, and I expect Marsden to try and hammer that home over and over.
For Hunt, he needs to stick to the McBollinelli Plan - talk up the every day issues that Virginians face and give solutions. And he's doing this already. He's talked about changing the funding formula for transportation dollars, putitng his engineering background to work, about creating a health care system similar to car insurance where you own it no matter what car (or job) you have. He talks about lower taxes and properly funding education not by buying off the unions and central office but by making sure money goes where it should be. Hunt has been very clear about his belief in the role of government, and its three things: infrastructure, education, and public safety. Thats it.
The 37th is mostly Sully, and Sully Republicans haven't always been the best organized. While Pat Herrity did very well across the board in Fairfax, he underperformed in Sully. Mike Frey has been reelected supervisor very easily over no opposition. Cuccinelli has always built his own organization, and a very effective one. Ken's people are Steve's people, and I expect AG Cuccinelli to make sure his seat doesn't fall. In addition, the state party swooped into western Fairfax for McDonnell's race and did a great job whipping it into shape. I expect Hunt will have the full party apparatus behind him, as well as Cuccinelli's personal treasure trove of lists.
For Marsden to win, he needs to do what he always does . . . hang on. He seems to just do enough, he's done a good job throughout his career blurring the political lines in his public career. He worked in the Gilmore Administration, was close alleged Republican Del. Jim Dillard, and was seen handing out Cuccinelli lit in 2002 and 2003. Then as part of a deal with Jim Dillard and the Democrats, Marsden becomes the Dem candidate for delegate in 2005 and clings to Kaine's coattails to get elected. He's a trimmer, and his Senate nomination is simply in keeping with his entire political career. Other higher ups that he has cultivated who are more powerful than him have cleared the field once again.
For Hunt, we need to see the hard work he puts in on the grassroots come out as a candidate. For Marsden to win, he needs to have the big boys come through again. But this is why I think Hunt wins. The math says he needs Sully big, and Marsden needs Burke big. But campaign-wise, Hunt needs to stay on message and hammer Marsden as an opportunist with no clear convictions, and without convictions how can he possibly fix any problems facing Northern Virginia? Don't simply call him a carpetbagger, make it a part of a larger argument that defines Marsden for what he is, a political opportunist who loves the title and perks (tix to UVA-Tech game) more than actually working for the people. His own delegate district is hardly convinced. The only reason Kerry Bolognese didn't beat Dave Marsden was because he ran out of time. He was sprinting right behind him.
For Marsden to win, he will need Hunt to bite on the social conservative attacks the way McDonnel did not. But when candidates on either side use social issues to attack the other side, it rarely works out. Social issues work in motivating your base or winning conservatives by advocating for them rather than attacking others with them. Marsden will try and paint Steve as anti-gay and anti-women, and will try and bait Hunt into getting into an argument about it. Steve needs to keep to his three principles of infrastructure, public safety, and education. Stay basic and hammer away at Marsden's lack of any record that has helped his district in any way. Marsden can only win if he can suddenly swing the McDonnell independents over to him, which will be hard to do given Marsden lack of any record on anything.
This is also still a relatively conservative district. Ken won three times, and did so in one of the darkest decades for Virginia Republicans. McDonnell won Fairfax County, and all three won the 37th easily (McDonnell taking 57%). A special election in the dead of winter is all about motivation, and clearly from the firehouse primaries in the 37th and 8th today where turnout has been astronomical, momentum is still on our side. The special election will occur right around the inauguration so expect Republicans to be excited about that and channel that energy to get out for Hunt to cap off the election properly.
But make no mistake, Marsden can win if we get fat and lazy just like the Dems did, if we getting into a glorified pissing match about social issues, or if Hunt can't raise the money needed and gets drowned in money. . The Dems don't do well in using social issues well against Republicans, especially when they have all lost credibility on the economy from Washington on down. Hunt also needs all the money he can raise, something he's had trouble with in the past but he clearly won the GOP nomination over big-spender Horinko.
It'll be fun to watch.
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