Stosch Out? Cuccinelli In? Maybe Newman?

Jeff Schapiro is reporting that Walter Stosch could be challenged by either or both Ken Cuccinelli and Steve Newman.

"The party needs new leadership -- from the very top to the very bottom," said Sen. Ken Cuccinelli, R-Fairfax.

"There will be a leadership challenge in the Senate, [and] the details of that need to be worked out. If you're in the current leadership, what's the rationale for staying there?

Here is the Republican Senate caucus: Stosch, Cucinelli, Stolle, Holtzman Vogel, Norment, Smith, Wampler, Newman, Quayle, Martin, Stuart, Hurt, Obenshain, McDougle, Ruff, Wagner, Watkins, Blevnes, and Hanger.

If Newman and Cuccinelli both run, that would probably ensure that Stosch hangs on for another term. But if only one of them runs, things will get interesting. I can name eight solid "moderates" and eight "conservatives."

Moderates: Stosch, Norment, Blevins, Wampler, Quayle, Wagner, and Watkins
Conservatives: Cuccinelli, Holtzman Vogel, Smith, Obenshain, McDougle, Newman, and Martin

That leaves three toss-ups: Richard Stuart, Emmett Hanger, and Robert Hurt. Stuart is an enigma right now, some claim he's a conservatives, others think he's a younger Chichester. This will be an important vote to see where he stands. Emmett Hanger is coming of a primary where the grassroots in his district were on fire against him and a vote for a conservative minority leader could be a first step towards healing that wound. Hurt, I don't know much about him but his record in the House seems conservative enough that he might be willing to someone new the reigns of leadership

I've talked about Stosch before, and the Senate leadership in general. But he has been severly weakened not only by the repudiation of Senate Republican policy this year, but also by the fact that he has such little support in his own distirct among Republicans. I know Ken won by only 92 votes, but he had every Republican behind him. Stosch can't say the same thing. I also think he's had his chance, and the election proved, if anything, the way the Senate did business was the wrong way. How can any of them stand for leadership?

That said, a conservative challenger must be careful. In the end, whoever the leader is, they need to be just that: a leader. I don't mind a little whipcracking and armtwising when need be, but if either Cuccinelli or Newman do challenge Stosch they can't alienate half their caucus. This year more than any we need someone who can bring the caucus together. The old way didn't work, but Chichester and Potts are gone and the moderates took it on the chin last week, but a new way must be a unifying way. That said, I do like the sound of Senate Minority Leader Ken Cuccinelli.

If anything, I can't wait to see Cuccinelli publically dismantle Dick Saslaw. My problem with a lot of the moderates is that they are too chummy with the Democrat leadership and fall for them and the party looses in the end. Democrats like Saslaw are counting on a guy like Stosch or Stolle, a buddy or friend, to do business off the floor and away from conervative eyes. If Cuccinelli is leader, he will challenge Senate Democrats and Governor Kaine every step of the way. That is what we need in a minority leader.

Comments

Despite having the title, Stosch has never been the Republican leader in the Senate. Norment ran the floor while Chichester and Stolle formed most of the strategy. All along Stosch just sat up there on the sixth floor doing nothing.

Newman or Cuccinelli would both be huge improvements for the party. Cuccinelli brings the added bonus of coming from voter-rich Fairfax where the GOP needs to improve their relationship with voters.

Hanger isn't going anywhere. VSRLT was a huge asset to him in his primary. If Hurt even thought about playing with VCAP senators, Charles Hawkins would kick his ass. And Charles has a lot of spunk for a man his age.

Oh and whoever wrote the 1:48 comment obviously never worked at the GAB in the past four years. Stosch isn't flashy and he doesn't angle for headlines, but he does get things done. Some people prefer a leader who is on the front page every day of session.

You forgot Sens. Ruff and Stolle in your analysis.

[Chris - Mason Conservative]

I don't disagree that Stosch gets things done, the problem is what the Senate got done in the last four years was repudiated in these elections. Its clear Virginians support the House of Delegates more than the Senate. The Senate acted like Democrats, so Virginians said what the hell, if you act like Democrats we mght as well elect Democrats. I can't see how any of these guys can maintain any of their positions.

Here's my take on Stuart. He'll be a reliable conservative vote in the Senate, however, he won't go down there and rock any boats. I'd expect him to support the current Senate leadership in this challenge.

The two GOP Senate fundraising committees are the Trust (the ins) and RSVP (the conservative outs). VCAP is an unrelated organization that often plays in GOP primaries. Not one of the RSVP members was first elected with VCAP support. In 2007, most of the Republican nominees who won the nomination by going to the right of their opponent did not receive VCAP support in the primary. There is no group of VCAP Senators. Jill Holtzman-Vogel formerly sat on their board, so it could be said that she is the VCAP Senator in the same way one could say Obenshain is the JMU Senator. There are not VCAP senators though.

[Dorothy]

Every Republican did not support Cuccinelli!
Many of us voted only to save the seat for the Republicans and, had Janet shown any ability, Ken would have lost by 92 votes.
He needs to show some humility and watch that his head does not get bigger. He has been weakened by this race and should not challenge the leadership.

The VCAP group of senators is the group of Senators VCAP endorsed, that align with VCAP through the overlapping membership of the Tuesday Morning Group, and who share the anti-tax ideology of VCAP. While not all RSVP senators are VCAP senators, there definitely are VCAP senators. The comparison between VSRLT senators and VCAP senators was not based on fundraising. (Especially since RSVP and VSRLT were cooperating to fund candidates in the general election.)

[novamiddleman]

If Republicans want to remain relevant in Virginia the TRUST and RSVP must be reconciled immediately. Its impossible to have an effective party otherwise.

The RSVP believers always claim that they will punish the Republicans by staying home (-1 vote). The TRUST believers punish the Republicans by staying home sometimes (-1 vote) but also on some occassions voting for Democrats (-2 votes).

Think about what scenario caused us to lose the first district and control of the senate... I might also add that Stuart was the most moderate candidate from the convention and he won and finally look who just became the nominee for the 1st congressional district

I don't want to start a civil war... just some food for thought

Dorothy, Cooch will not change. He was actually one of the founders of the RSVP. His win has provided more support to the RSVP but the fact remains his days are numbered. He almost lost to an idiot.

[SE VA MWC Alum]

Being friends with people from the other party is a senate tradition. There is a senatorial camaraderie.

[Mike Stollenwerk]

Hit the link at http://tinyurl.com/yv8494

This link comes from a recent Virginina Citizens Defense League alert email to its members entitled "VA-ALERT: Action Item: Senate needs new leadership!"

Everybody needs to hit this link at Click the link below and fill in your name and address to tell your Senator or your Senator elect that you want his or her caucus leadership REPLACED with pro-gun leaders!

Your message will be sent to your Senator or Senator elect automatically - no need to find his or her email address!

Please forward this message and link to all your friends and associates in Virginia ASAP. The time window to change the Senate leadership is clsoing soon.