There Is A God (and more thoughts)

KEN CUCINELLI WINS REELECTION

For now, according to Virtucon, Ken Cuccinelli has prevailed by a whopping 94 votes. There will be a recount, but I don't know if a recount can move that many votes-it only moved about 15-20 in the statewide recount between McDonnell and Deeds. But Janet definatly has the right to ask and I hope she does to make sure its correct. Cuccinelli's continued survival gives us all hope. I'm actually not as upset about this whole thing as I was last year. I was aware of everything weighing us down. But Ken . . . for Ken to win is a ray on sunshine in an otherwise cloudy day.

So why did Ken win (for now)? Moral clairy, an unappligetic conservatism and belief in its princples, and an adaptation of those principles to fit the needs of Northern Virginia. It also helps that Ken was running against perhaps the most unqualified candidate ever to grace this county. And everyone knows it . . . Democrats and liberals know it, too.

The Republican Party of Virginia needs to change. When I was at the state central committee meeting a couple months ago, I was apalled at what I saw. I saw a group of men and women more interested in the little fueds and cliques within the party than doing anything to actually help it. There is no leadership and what is there is rotting from the inside.

Here in Northern Virginia, we need to find new voters and figure out why we lost the center. How is it that conservative Ken Cuccinelli squeeks it out, but Jeannemarie gets the doors blown out when she was playing the moderate game? Too many people in the party are simply Tom Davis hangers-on, who don't care about growing the party or finding new voters. The just show up when Tom comes around looking for handouts. Its frustrating. The Northern Virginia Republican Party is on Tom Davis welfare and we need to get off it. Tom is a partybuilder, but the people in the party need to follow his lead not just follow him. I was at the party at the Marriot and the people there were cheering and claping . . . they just don't get it. They don't see what needs to change. There's always something else to blame. Bush's low numbers, Iraq, anti-incumbancy. There is always an excuse.

The good thing, I guess, is that it can't get worse tha this. We have nowhere to go but up. And I plan to do more than just talk about it in the upcoming months.

Comments

The reason why JMDD lost while Ken won is that JMDD did her level best to alienate the party by calling herself a RINO and running to the left of Chap. There's no way she could have picked up enough D's and I's to balance the number of R's she lost by doing that. All that money and "talent" on her campaign, but she makes a simple math error. Sad.

[Tom G.]

Nice post. Agree completely.

I am a relatively new resident to NOVA and I have to say, the Republican Party -- at least in NOVA -- is an absolute disgrace. What a rotting mess...

Excluding Arlington and Alexandria, this state is conservative from top to bottom. Even Fairfax and the rest of NOVA has predominantly conservative values.

That's why guys like Cuccinelli, O'Brien and even Chap! are popular.

That's why a candidate who advocates gun control or raising taxes or who is lax on illegal immigration will go down to defeat, even in NOVA.

We must remember that Dems like Warner, Kaine, Webb and Chap run as conservatives. Dems can crow about their recent victories, but conservatives are really winning on the issues as these Dem candidates continuously have to play up their conservative values to win state and local elections.

So why are Dems winning? They have much better leadership, they are running better candidates, they are more disciplined, they are more organized and they are more enthusiastic. And they run as conservatives.

That’s the whole ballgame.

Look at the VA Senate race last year. George Allen is extremely popular in VA and should have cruised to re-election. But the great Dem leadership made a brilliant pick in getting Jim Webb to run. Even putting the Maccaca comment aside, this was going to be a close race. The Dems were extremely enthusiastic and very organized.

I can only speak to NOVA, but the Allen team was disorganized and without passion. You could just feel it. For example, phone banks were not running at 100%, the neighborhoods were not walked sufficiently and even on Election Day, there were precincts that had ZERO Republican presence handing out sample ballots.

I took the day off of work to hand out sample ballots at a McLean precinct because I heard that no one was scheduled to work the precinct at all. Why this wasn’t addressed weeks prior to the election is criminal.

Conversely, the Dems had a beautiful and organized setup. They had a big table with plenty of literature, coffee, and about a dozen people working the table in 2-3 hour shifts. I worked the precinct alone with no scheduled to relieve me. I knew Allen was going to lose.

Anecdotal evidence, yes, but it speaks to the overall organization and effort of the parties. They were better organized and more passionate. I think we all know it’s true. And it’s a shame.

Look, I know Repubs may never win NOVA from the Dems, but in a statewide race, if we able to keep it closer, we will win the rest of the state sufficiently to carry the day.

So where do we go?

We need to copy the Dems and build the party from top to bottom. We need better leadership and we need better organization. We need to take all elections seriously and take all regions seriously.

We need a grassroots GOTV effort and we need to out organize and out work the Dems. If we do that, we will not lose b/c the nature of this Commonwealth is conservative.

So, how do we accomplish this?

[Jackson Landers]

Tom G. is absolutely right. We (Virginia Democrats) are marching to victory in election after election because we have become a home for moderate conservatives. As we grow, Republicans lose but traditional conservatism is winning. The far left becomes even more marginalized with every new Democratic victory, as more conservative leadership is added to the party.

Republicans could win in Virginia. It's just that the party apparatus has it's head up it's ass through years of poor management by Kate Obenshain and Ed Gillespie (who had no real grassroots understanding of Virginia and was never going to do anything for you except maybe raise money).

You need to start running some old-fashioned conservatives again. Enough of this foaming at the mouth stuff about immigration and homosexuals. Virginia wants leaders who keep the machinery humming, deal with any crises that come up and otherwise stay out of our faces. We don't want a lot of ideology. We don't want these guys who want to shrink government to where they can drown it in the bathtub. We want the old-fashioned conservatives that balance budgets and would generally be inclined against making new laws.

Stop trying to change the world. Most people do not want to live in a fundamentalist Christian state where government breathes down our throats but doesn't do anything for us. And like it or not, that is exactly what the popular perception of the Republican vision of governance is. Just make the trains run on time and then guys like me will start to seriously consider voting for Republicans again.

[hoobie]

Jackson, you nailed it. The party needs to ditch the social conservatism and get back to basics.

[Tom G.]

I disagree with Jackson and Hoobie, and maybe I did not make myself clear.

I was talking about tactics and process, not issues.

Agree that a Republican can't and shouldn't expect to cover up incompetence and lack of organization by disingenuously using "wedge issues" in the 11th hour of a campaign.

That's not enough to win.

But, VA is a conservative state and socially conservative issues can only help Repubs -- even in NOVA. Remember, Chap ran to the RIGHT of JMDD and Ken beat the liberal Oz.

Again Virginia is one of the most socially conservative states. It would be a huge mistake to abandon social conservatism.

Better organization and tactics are needed.

Repubs lost last night b/c of tactics and process, not issues.

[Tom G.]

Jackson and Hoobie,

I do agree that Repubs should never look like "foaming at the mouth" radicals and shouldn't be intollerant or angry.

There is a way to stay socially conservative without scaring people.

Perhaps Ronald Reagan was a good example of that.

[daytonflyers]

Totally on board with Chris' comments. The Dems were 10x more organized that the GOP in Fairfax County. I worked 13 hours at a precinct essentially solo for most of the day. The Dems had 2-3 people at each precinct, they had cars come by every two hours to collect counts and deliver food and drinks. We had nothing....

Ken C. proved again why he has the strongest grassroots organization in the state at any level....

Kudos also to M. Cadin for giving a self-proclaimed moderate in Chuck Caputo a real run for his money. He should be very proud of the way he ran his campaign and his effectiveness in attracting a large percentage of independent voters....

[Tom G.]

Dayton,

My experience exactly with the Fairfax GOP for the US Senate race.

Disgraceful.

Thanks for giving it your all.

We need organization from top to bottom. We need a party that knows where every voter in every precinct is located and gets them to the polls.

We are giving away race after race after race b/c we are out-organized and out-hustled. That's a shame.

[novamiddleman]

Its time to stop sugercoating this. We have an enormous problem. We are getting CRUSHED.

so what are we going to do about it

I think it starts from the top as well. I assume all of you saw the last minute blurbs from McDonnel and Bolling. The "accomplishments" were all from at least 10 years ago. What has happened lately. Those piece were utter fluff.

Also, as far as organization it is abyssmal. We lost every single Fairfax County Wide race except Frey and he BARELY hung on. We did not win a single at large school-board race. The root cause of this is the sample ballots. There is no excuse to not have at least one person at every precient in Fairfax handing out sample ballots. This is the least we can do for McDade, and the excellent school board candidates that were running.

Finally I am going to repost a portion of a Democratic email from Brian Moran. Before you roll your eyes look at it. It has specifics it tells you what the party is going to do. Where is this vision and leadership for the Republicans

"Eighteen months ago, I set out on a mission to bring change and new leadership to the General Assembly. Having given or raised well over half-a-million dollars and traveled nearly 100,000, I'm confident in our success tomorrow. Thank you for all you've done to help.

Going forward, Democrats are offering fresh perspectives and new ideas like a Military Veterans Bill of Rights to protect those who are serving our nation in harms way; a new plan for alternative and renewable energy that strengthens our economy and preserves our environment for generations to come; a new compact with Virginia's seniors to make sure they can live in dignity in the home in which they raised their families; and a commitment to expanding access to early childhood education for Virginia's families. I recently talked with Mark Plotkin on WTOP about our ideas. You can listen to that program by clicking here.

Unfortunately, at every turn, Virginia Republicans have stood in the way. When we tried to help working families by raising the minimum wage, Virginia Republicans stood in the way. When we led efforts to raise teacher pay to the national average, our efforts were obstructed by Virginia Republicans. When we stood together to put Virginia's fiscal house in order and preserve our AAA bond rating, Virginia Republicans opposed us every step of the way. And when we looked to develop a transportation solution that gets traffic moving on our roadways, Virginia Republicans brought us a Washington-style gimmick of abusive driver fees.

From Galax to Gainesville, we must knock on each and every door. From Norfolk to Norton, it's time to get out every vote. And from Franklin to Fairfax we must do all we can to change the General Assembly this November 6th.

[Hokie Fan]

There are some good comments made here. I would like to say that too many Republicans in Fairfax (especially this year) were unwilling to do anything. When your back is to the wall, it is time to FIGHT not QUIT. We have far too many quitters. Also, there is something in the water in Fairfax. When I knocked doors and asked people about issues on their mind, they often said illegal immigration or taxes or traffic. When I asked what they were doing about it I usually got blank stares. The idea of joining a political campaign or an organization like Help Save Fairfax was foreign to them...........

JMDD lost by what - 5K vote. Figure that her anti-gun antics pushed 2500 gunowners to come pull lever for Chap. She loses 2500 - Chap gains 2500 - thats all it took. I think she lost on gun issue alone.

Think of what she could have done with all that money if she had stuck to conservative principals - unfortuntly she gave those up long before the election.

I predict Tom Davis will collect as much dough as possible and then shortly before next Congressional election will become a Dem.

[NoVA Scout]

I suspect that Cuccinelli's survival had everything to do with the lack of a competent opponent and the considerable advantage of incumbency and nothing to do with his adherence to "conservative" principles. Cuccinelli is one of several Rs in Northern Virginia who have mined the cardboard conservatism vein way beyond any real utility as far as providing competent governance to the voters. While no crystalline theme emerged from the various results around the state and region, one of them is that the sloganeers are getting found out and that the citizens are demanding competence in government. Cuccinelli will have to change his stripes considerably to have a political future.We Rs should take from this that these old dinosaurs who failed so completely to use their past incumbency to better the state need to be abandoned in the future.

[Tom G.]

Nova,

Respectfully disagree with your post esp. as pertains to Cuccinelli. From what I have heard from people I trust, Cuccinelli's strong and loyal support is a product of his consistent and principled conservatism.

Others have made the point that JMDD likely lost more votes than she won by running so hard left and Chap himself noted that he won more crossover votes than he lost and he was endorsed by the NRA and ran as a somewhat conservative alternative to JMDD.

[Chris - Mason Conservative]

Tom G, its not just a generic conservatism that Cuccinelli espouses. He has found solutions through conservatism to solve local problems and issues. So it gives him an air of being principled, which people respect. Once they can get past that, he's so nice and has such a engaging charisma that its impossible not to like him. He has masterfully melted ideology, personality, and working 3x than anyone else in the state to win.

Everyone knows it should have been more than this. Even Democrats know, deep down that Ken is a good guy and Janet was simply a disaster as a candidate. They go after Jonathan Murrah becasuse they can't yet bring themselves to realize what a terrible candidate he had to work with. Ken's victory should have never been this close, and EVERYONE knows it.

[Tom G.]

Chris,

I agree. I do not mean to argue that conservatism itself is enough to win. You have to "walk the walk" as well. As you note, Ken apparently does that.

In fact, that's my point. Ken's principles earn respect and respect translates into loyal votes in an area where people don't necessarily agree with his politics.

Yeah, it shouldn't have been so close, but that happens, esp. in a Dem year in a Dem district. But Ken survived. And he survived perhaps b/c his principled position won him enough loyal support to weather the storm.

So, perhaps Ken's principled (and solution-driven) conservatism put him over the top on Tuesday. An unprincipled and generic "Republican" likely would have been crushed by Janet O on Tuesday.

[Jay]

One of the little known facts about N VA is that the Democrats’ solution is “smart growth” which means high density development in already built up neighborhoods (Vienna, Fairfax, Merrifield) around I-66 and the Metro.

This has led to impossible traffic build ups in areas that were already too congested. The Democrats want to turn what used to be a suburban county (Fairfax) into an urban Arlington - Alexandria style area which will vote one party Democrat all the time.

The fact that we have a County Chairman who works for a developer who has orchestrated this mess has been mostly ignored by the mass media. Innovative solutions like synchronization of traffic lights or light rail seemed to be ignored by the present increasingly one-party regime. Also, most everyone in Fairfax wants to live in a cul-de-sac neighborhood with few short cuts that will allow traffic to be diverted from major roads.

Our county party also needs to work on building a far better grassroots organization with reliable lists of who are Republicans (which could easily be gathered from past campaign lists and primary voting). The lists I used to help turn out voters were riddled with staunch Democrats and voters who had not lived there in years. A check off list of who voted should also be utilized. In a low turnout election like the one we had, we could have won if we had turned out our vote. Of course, internet technology could be effectively utilized to do this in the future.

[Tony]

I strongly disagree with Nova Scout’s comments regarding what Ken C will need to do to survive the next election – that he will have to “change his stripes” – should he do so, I am certain he would go the way of JMDD. Ken’s values were clear, as was his “taking the high road” regarding his ethics in the campaign.

The reason that Ken almost lost is the reason that I considered voting for Janet (for about 30 seconds, until I spoke with Ken directly and he explained his vote) – and that is his vote for the bill that contained the abusive driver fees. By his own (honest) admission, his was the deciding vote that moved the fees into law – clearly his voting for the bill that contained the fee's was mistake…however...

This was the ONLY substantive issue that Janet could and did try to use against Ken – and, frankly, if I believed that Ken did have a choice to vote against the abusive driver fees, I would have probably voted against him…but he did not…he had to make a ways/means decision on bringing $400 million to help alleviate the traffic problems we have.

Janet’s latest “low key” and “out of sight” actions over the past few days continues to demonstrate her true core…that of a typical liberal – too “above it all” to be bothered with the election results. Why has she not been involved and visible in the canvassing process that has been ongoing? This is leadership?

While Ken has been out, leading the troops, where is she? Instead of having the courage to face the music, she sends out her “flying monkey” Jonathan Murray to speak for her…I wonder if she has found the ruby slippers yet…

[Paul]

Jay's comments above are right on the money.

The Republican's lost in Loudoun because they were seen as the cause of traffic.

Fairfax Republicans should make a strategic decision to fight to keep

KEEP FAIRFAX SUBURBAN - NOT URBAN

Which means stopping Ballston style condo projects along metro routes - folks don't take metro because the parking is expensive and inadaquate

We need metro PARKING lots not Metro Condo Developments

This serves existing residents and voters - not future condo dwellers who as DINKS/singles will trend Dem