Republican Winners and Losers of 2007

I don't know how much I'll be blogging before the New Year, so I wanted to do this now before I forgot. 2007 was an interesting year for the Republican Party of Virginia. If I could choose one motto, it would be: "It Could Have Been Worse." We lost some close races and fell behind in Northern Virginia. But we held in rural Virignia and the State Senate is more conservative than a year ago, and it looks like both Republican chambers will be united this year. So, like I said, it could have been worse. So here is my list:

~ WINNERS ~

1. Gov. Jim Gilmore
The former governor cleared the way for his nomination to the US Senate by skillfully outmaneuvering Rep. Tom Davis in the fall. Certainly he has a uphill fight against Mark Warner, and still has to deal with Bob Marshall – though it shouldn’t be too difficult. Gilmore is back where he wants to be, in the middle of a fight and determined to take back the lead of this party in Virginia. He’ll have his chance in 2008, but in 2007 Jim Gilmore came back and came back strong. 2008 will be a tough year, but 2007 could have ripped apart the party. Somehow, Gilmore waded the waters and elbowed aside Tom Davis without hardly a fight. Jim Gilmore now has 11 months to overcome a 17 point hill, and he's a battler. Will he win? I dare say he can. Its up to him now to run the perfect race and find an issue or two to connect with all voters. If there is anyone who can do it, its Jim Gilmore.

2. Rep. Rob Wittman
When 2007 began, hardly anyone outside of the 99th House District knew who Rob Wittman was. A career local politician, it would seem that then-Del. Wittman was content with life in local and state politics. Then, sadly, Rep. Jo Ann Davis passed away. Wittman jumped in to the congressional race after running unopposed for reelection. But in his way stood the arch-conservative Williamsburg millionaire Paul Jost on the one side, and on the other stood the grieving widower of Rep. Davis, Chuck Davis. Yet someone, running on the tried-and-true convention strategy of being everyone’s second choice, Wittman emerged from the rubble as the 1st distrct Republican nominee, then destroyed Phil Forgit in December to win the 1st Congressional seat. Not bad for a guy nobody knew about 12 months ago. Wittman's future is not only secure in the 1st distirct, his future in the state is bright. Wittman is a fresh face that the party needs right now and hopefully he can carve out a place in the House like Eric Cantor and Tom Davis have. The party will be stronger for it.

3. Delegate Tim Hugo
Ken Cuccinelli got all the press for being the lone Republican senator left in Northern Virginia, but Delegate Tim Hugo’s victory over Democrat Rex Simmons was even more impressive, capturing 57% of the vote. Hugo not only won, but he embarrassed the DPV by exposing Simmons’ vicious attacks and turning them back on the Democrats. The DPV is facing litigation from this race. Furthermore, Hugo’s victory is even more important given the growing likelihood that Tom Davis will retire. Hugo is now the logical successor, and a candidate that will be formidable. Like Wittman, his future is bright and he proved a lot in this last election. He proved he can take the worst kind of politics - the kind that would be practiced by Leslie Byrne or Gerry Connolly - and not only survive but thrive and turn it around on the Dems. Hugo, moreso than Cuccinelli, gave Republicans a roadmap on how to win in Fairfax. Put a huge flash light on Democrat dirty tricks, have great consittuent services, and build a consensus conservative record.

4. State Sen. Ken Cuccinelli
Ken has turned into something of a beacon of hope for Republicans in these downtrodden times. With our candidates falling like raise in Northern Virginia, it still just blows the mind that the most conservative member of the VIRIGNIA Senate still resides in Fairfax County. He’s blessed with a great organization and the kind of luck that all winners have. His opponent was about as horrible as the Democrats could have recruited, as was her entire campaign. Though Ken still only won by 101 votes, its worth remember that “moderate” Sen. Davis got the doors blown out. Cuccinelli, as the lone remaining Republican in Fairfax, figures to have his district packed with Republcian precints that Sens. Barker and Petersen don’t want, as well as a shift westward. With his Senate district looking to be consolidated, the future looks bright. Many have speculated that Cuccinelli will look statewide, but with such a young family might Ken wish to stay home and concentrate on whats right in front of him, namely the 10th Congressional District? Cuccinelli is the heartbeat of conservatives in Virginia.

5. Prince William Chairman Corey A. Stewart
The famed “third world dictator” has take a stand on immigration that, at every step, critics have claimed would blow up in his face. Not only has Stewart won election in the face of a national Democrat sweep (in 2006), but in a statewide year of Democrat gains (2007). Stewart has cemented his grip on the country Board, and has drawn a line in the political sand that has paid off. While many Republicans in Northern Virginia, and indeed across the commonwealth, have hemmed and hawed and calculated their votes; like Cuccinelli Stewart is who he is and he makes no bones about it. While Republicans nearly crumbled in Fairfax, they did quite well in Prince William; and important development as Democrat statewide gains have been made by winning in Prince William. Stewart has now seemingly turned his sights to the state party, and fully expect Stewart to start making waves in 2009 with a possible LG bid.

~ LOSERS ~

1. Tom and Jeannemarie Davis
I love Tom Davis and he has been an excellent congressman over the last fourteen years, but 2007 was a terrible year for both he and his wife, the state senator. The year opened with Davis poised or a senate run. Instead, he found himself out maneuvered and out worked by Jim Gilmore, losing an important vote at State Central in favor of a convention. On the heels of bailing on the Senate race, Davis spent all his time working for Jeannemarie, neglecting the local party he helped build. And in the end, they all lost. Jeannemarie got crushed, and a lot had to do with the miscalculation that Republicans would stick by her no matter how far to the left she moved on guns.

2. “Chichester and Potts” Republicanism
The two senators have made it their life’s mission to prove conservatives in Virginia wrong. In many ways, the way Chichester ran the Senate; and the way Potts ran for governor, helped validate the image of moderate Democrats and lead to the Democrats ascendancy in the state. But time finally ran out and clearly the Party has moved passed both these men. In the face of electoral defeat at home, both me decided to pack it in and both were replaced by more conservative members. And as the Senate fell to the Democrats, the moderate Republican way of leadership was utterly repudiated.

3. Ed Gillespie
I warned about Gillespie. He swooped in, charmed everyone with his presentation and national credentials. But in the end, he bailed for a national role. And so many of us saw it coming. It was a terrible sign that in the heat of a campaign, your state party chairman bails. And Gillespie promised he wouldn’t do it, either. I think a lot of people felt hoodwinked, which is why they went to a tried and true Virginia pol, John Hager. Though he brought the party back into the black, Gillespie jumped ship just when we needed him the most, and his broken promise was early symbolism of what was to come.

4. Delegate Dave Albo
I can’t imagine a luckier politician in Virginia. Though Albo is now Chairman of the House Courts and Justice Committee, he has the daunting task of overcoming the residue of being the chief supporter of the hated abuser fees, that really hurt Republicans and derailed whatever momentum we gained by passing the landmark Transportation bill. Two very credible candidates await in two years, either Greg Werkheiser or Kate Wilder. But never underestimate Albo, there is nobody who is closer to his constituency than him. But 2007 was a rough year, the abuser fee controversy effectively silenced Albo, who’s leadership was badly needed for Northern Virginia Republicans.

5. Faisal Gill and Tom Kopko
First off, let me state that I supported Faisal Gill in his race, going back to the primary. But his candidacy did untold damage to Republicans in Northern Virginia and cost us the State Senate. But its complicated, and most of this was not Gill’s fault. Instead of ensuring an even playing field, Prince William GOP chief Kopko rigged the process for his guy, and continually gave him bad advice and put him in awkward positions. When Julie Lucas announced, Kopko set up the entire machinery against her. Sadly, this had disasterous consequences for Jay O’Brien. I firmly believe he could have hung on to his seat had Lucas been the nominee. Gill’s controversial candidacy combined with Kopko’s splitting the party hurt O’Brien badly and enabled unknown Paul Nichols to win election to the House. Lucas won by nearly 70% in the most Democrat district in Prince William, Neabsco; something O’Brien had to look at with despair on election night.

Comments

[Aimee]

While Tim Hugo HAS done impressive things this year, I don't think that beating Rex was that big of a deal--from what I can tell Rex barely campaigned. As a democrat, I was never expecting us to win that seat this year, so I don't think his victory is particularly impressive. However, he HAS managed to be one of the only republicans left in NOVA, and if he can continue to hold on there will be lots of opportunities for him in the future. He deserves to be high on the winners list--but I think Cuccinelli should be even higher. Cooch ran a great campaign, as usual, and has set himself up for a pretty good AG run.

Decent list though, and an interesting read.

Faisal Gill was probably the worst candiate in the history of the GOP. Just awful! That being said, this whole thing could have been avoided if Julie Lucas could have decided to run earlier. There is absolutely NO excuse for Lucas to lose this convention. She could have outnumbered Gill's supporters by 3-1 but she did not work at all. She ran an absolutely horrible campaign and did virtually nothing until a few days before the convention. I think people in PWC should think long and hard before letting her run again. If Lucas does not want to work at all to get the nomination, folks in PWCGOP should look elsewere so Gill cannot get the nomination. Hard work wins House of Delegate nominations, not a name.

O'Brien lost because he did not essentially run a campaign at all. He found out too late that he was losing. . Anyone blaming Gill for O'Brien's loss really does not understand either O'Brien's district or Gill's. Compare the precincts, and see. If you want to blame anyone, blame Jeanmarie Davis for O'Brien's loss. She took all of the Fairfax supporters for her own campaign and if these supporters would have been split a little better, O'Brien would have been in a much better position with grassroots. All these people helped Jeanmarie who lost big and Jay only lost by a very small margin. Jeanmarie hurt Jay O'Brien much worse than Faisal.

[Loudoun Insider]

JMDD was just awful on the campaign trail and Faisal Gill indeed was a horrendous candidate. RPV really has to get its act together.

[Shaun Kenney]

What precisely does RPV have to do with JMDD or Gill?

You nominate them, we turn out the base for 'em.

Beyond that, I think a *lot* of people have no idea what state party does (or more precisely put, expects RPV to do things better done by unit committees).

Yes indeed, RPV really should not play a role in the primary process but we all know that is not the case. Just look at what happened in a certain state senate race primary this year.

I do agree generally about party expectations. The PWC unit committee this year did very little for anyone. The Gill issue divided the entire committee and many just quit coming to meetings altogether. The ones that were involved in the committee were usually too busing fighting amongst themselves to be any help. There was very little to no grassroots activity coming from the committee.
To be certain, not all of this was related to Gill. The GOP brand is really hurting right now in NOVA with Bush's populartity essentially at an all time low. It's nearly impossible to generate grassroots activity when the party in the White House has low ratings.
Bush's popularity combined with the divisions over Gill made it extremely difficult in PWC this season for volunteers.
Most of the elected officials and candidates who canvassed, did so with non committee members or homeschoolers that had no affiliation with the committee. It did not effect O'Brien in PWC as he did reasonably well. O'Brien's problem was in Fairfax were it was "all hands on deck" to "save "Jeanmarie who abandoned her GOP principles in the closing weeks with the appearance by Bloomberg. If O'Brien were given more (or any for that matter) help from Fairfax he would have won. That is the bottom line.

[Shaun Kenney]

For the record... we're being way too hard on Gillespie here.

Gillespie came with every intention of sticking around. Problem is, when the President asks you to do something, it's kinda hard to turn him down...

I know people might want to look into it more than what it is, but the truth of the matter is much more simple: the President asked, and rather than continue to grow his firm, he went to the White House.

Nothing less. The only real "loser" in that instance are Virginia Republicans... because what Gillespie did in five short months was huge (and notably missed).

[It's the truth]

Shuan, give me a break. RPV is a non-factor across the board. What does RPV have to do with JMDD and Faisal Gill? Nothing. You are right about that. That's because RPV has nothing to do with anything. They are a complete NON-FACTOR across the board. The most non-strategic loons hold leadership positions there. It is sad...very, very, very sad.

[Loudoun Insider]

Well said, It's the Truth. RPV simply sat idly by while major unit committees imploded. I'm sick of RPV not taking the reins and watching its majorities crumble. PWC and Loudoun were embarrassments that could have been at least partially avoided with direct intervention.

Talk about problems, just have RPV attempt to centralize the power from local committees. Do you want a riot? I am not a huge RPV fan right now but there is very little to nothing they could have done about the situation in Prince William and Loudoun unless they are direcly and willfully breaking the law.

Just because people do not like the nominees and party leadership does not give cause to "take over committees". Believe me, RPV was watching these local committees and conventions like a hawk to make sure things were done legally. Blaming RPV is the lazy and irresponsible way of shifting blame from the localities. If you want chance in politics you have to start from the bottom up. Don't like the Gill nominee? Then get someone to run who actually wants to work for the nomination instead of have it given to them. Want better nominees and a GOP committee in Loudoun? Than go out and recruit new members. Don't blame RPV for these local mistakes.

Some people are constant whiners and blame anyone who is in leadership. Just like the crowd who said Oh, if we get rid of Kate O. things will get better, no if we get rid of Ed Gillespie, things we be fine, and now if we get rid of John Hagar and the curent team things will be better. Why not attempt to change your local committee? I'll tell you why, because its easier to whine and complain and actually change things from the ground level. I for one do not ever want to see a centralized party machine as I believe locals can always do the best.

[Loudoun Insider]

If you have any experience with the LCRC at all, you would know just how entrenched the wingnuts are, and just how absolutely nasty they can be to any who oppose them. There are those who are willing to stand up to them (yours truly included) but the vast majority of everyday Republicans in Loudoun County want nothing to do with the local committee. It really is that bad. There will be yet another effort to bring back hundreds of disaffected Loudoun Republicans into the LCRC this coming March at the Mass Meeting, and thankfully Glen Caroline is a great Chairman nominee who can maybe bring back some sanity to the committee. Of course this will do nothing to right the wrongs of the last couple years and election cycles. A similar effort was made at the last Mass Meeting, but for every person that chose to give it a shot, 3-5 said - no way in hell will I associate with those crazies. I will give RPV credit for smacking down the horribly flawed convention call, but it is time to permanently ban some of those responsible for that travesty and continual lying to the committee and candidates.

PWC was another mess, and flawed 51st HOD Convention should have been watched like a hawk by RPV after the revelations of Kopko's consulting contract with Faisal Gill. Both of these committees have been run like personal fiefdoms for the exclusive benefit of the leaders and their chosen ones. Real local unit democracy must be returned before the hemmhoraging will stop and outsiders again feel welcome.

[Shaun Kenney]

You know Loudoun Insider, it's not like your ID isn't the best kept open secret out there...

Needless to say, there are a lot of things unit committee's blame RPV for that have nothing to do with state party. It's the great scapegoat in the sky.

I don't know who anon 09:36am is/was, but that's about spot on.

95% of the problems most people associate with RPV are direct problems with unit committees, or people who work so hard to get *other people* to do the yeoman's job of grassroots campaigning.

Fact is, RPV did quite a bit this year for unit committees in target races, and rather than take things over, we paid for staff to help unit chairs. That's a first, and we can expect more of it in coming years and races. Of course, that's just one of the many things state party did, but it's pertinent to the conversation.

Anyone who argues RPV didn't offer more help in 2007 than in years past simply wasn't involved.

Barring RSLC, we probably would have done much better across the board. There's about 40 campaign operatives in Virginia who know precisely what I'm talking about... but Loudoun Insider wasn't one of those guys, so he wouldn't know a thing as to what RPV did behind the scenes. No worries -- quibbles like this are easily overseen and forgotten.

One day, I'll just do an open thread with questions, and y'all can ask anything you want about what state party does, what unit committees do, what district committees do, etc. There's a handful of people who really understand the process... and most of them punch out when they get tired of dealing with the personalities beyond the principles.

That's all I got. Merry Xmas!

Shaun, since you are now free from the shackles of RPV, I would like to hear your perspective on the effectiveness of an outside organization such as the RSLC on this years GA races? I don't really think its a good idea to let a D.C. organization like RSLC have so much potential sway in our unique Va races. Was this RPV's call?

[Chris - Mason Conservative]

As someone active in a unit committee, I'll tell you that they have the most impact both negative and positive in a race as far as grassroots was concerned. I'm in the Fairfax City GOP committee, and it was awfully hard to get any traction becasue Chap Petersen being from the City his entire life. On the other hand, the City Dems seem to really have things going well because of their enthusiasim for Petersen. The RPV, at its best, should be supplying money and resources to unit and other local committees that know the area best. They must work to build strong committees. The worst thing that can happen is the state party taking over everything, becasue each part of the state is so distinct you can formulate a single statewide policy that fits all. I don't expect much from RPV accept money, staff, and volunteers.

One of the things that hurt Northern Virginia so bad was, in hindsight, the all-hands-on-deck to save Jeannemarie. It left a lot of candidates in the lurch and without the help and guidance of Rep. Davis. Then again, if it were my wife I would do the exact same thing.

[Loudoun Insider]

Shaun, my experiences with the LCRC are quite surreal in many aspects. I made a huge personal sacrifice to get several popular Republicans re-elected, so don't try to whip out any criticism of me being just about criticizing and not doing anything on the ground. Nearly all of my efforts were outside of the LCRC precisely because they worked to get these popular Republicans defeated at the behest of their funders. It was special interest influence at its worst. Luckily some people had the backbonce to stand up to this, while the majority on the committee remained cowering. You and others can complain about me all you want, but the real fault lies with the committee leadership in Loudoun and PWC that let things sink to such a sorry state of affairs. A party that was truly built on conservative values and principles would not behave like these two units have. If the units don't want to play fair and square, then RPV should step in to preserve the brand name.

[Shaun Kenney]

Chris:

There's some truth to what you say. But here again, it's not the RPV's job to funnel money, volunteers, and staff to unit committees.

In fact, it's quite the opposite. RPV *relies* on unit committees to raise the money, find the volunteers, and at times hire staff to help local candidates.

Now what RPV does do and is designed to do is help *complement* a unit committee's role (hence the reason unit chairs received RPV-funded staff under their direction in 2007)... but in no way can RPV or should RPV "take over" -- which I have experienced first-hand and has been the criticism in unit committees where RPV has (in times past) sent staff and volunteers.

The #1 misconception about the state party is the sending of resources to unit committees. Send too much, RPV is taking over. Send not enough, and RPV isn't doing enough to help. The GOP is supposed to be the party of entrepreneurship, but most folks have forgotten how to do grassroots campaigning (or better still, the party hasn't given the grassroots a reason to do raise money, find volunteers... etc). In short, RPV is not going to do the job of a unit committee. It can compliment, but it cannot make at unit committee work any harder than it wants to.

Saying otherwise is putting RPV in a Catch-22 between taking over and not doing enough... there will never be a happy medium until unit committees have enough presence where RPV invovlement truly is complimentary and not invasive.

LI:

I'm not going to dither on the particulars of the LCRC situation. But I would love to know your opinion of the previous 10th District Convention in 2006... which Executive Committee detailed as anything but fair.

I have to correct you on this much: RPV is not about protecting the "brand name" when it comes to who wins or loses. What RPV will protect (and will continue to do) is a fair process for the selection of leadership and candidates. That includes unit committees, HOD nominations, and even 10th District conventions...

Cheers!

[Loudoun Insider]

The 10th District Convention was fairly run in my opinion. The biggest complaint was not letting Eve Marie Baner go on a witch hunt to protect her vision of party purity. It is precisely that party puritan mentality that is the root causeof the demise of the GOP in NoVA. The end result was a 60-40 win for Jim Rich, the only chance the wingnuts had was to delay delay delay until most non-fanatics had to get home to their families. This attitude, the convention over primary philosophy and the castigation of anyone not 100% wingnut as RINOs or Democrats is a huge problem for the GOP in NOVA. You don't have to take it from me - the proof is in the election results.

As far as RPV guaranteeing a fair process, this only happened in Loudoun because someone bothered to file a detailed complaint, and apparently it didn't happen in the 51st HOD convention. I understand the reticence of RPV to appear too heavy handed, but they have to step up if they want to preserve any chance of retaining a GOP majority in this state.

The 10th convention was probably the most poorly handled event in NOVA GOP history. Everything from picking a temporary chair to Eve Barner's little diatribe was an absolute joke. Its seemed like there were no adults in the room conducting this event. Both sides were equally at fault.

Questions of delegate eligibility should have been addressed before these folks were approved as delegates long before the convention. There credentials should have been addressed locally. Barner just made herself look bad that day.

Rich's people also should have picked a neutral party to moderate as convention chair. I cannot believe they could not find one in the entire state.

McHugh, Stirrups campaign manager behaved like an absolute clown that day. Stirrup ruined any chance she ever had of winning in the future with this event. Trying to delay the inevitable was stupid. I am still not sure to this day why Stirrup's crowd wanted to get rid of Frank Wolf's guy Jim Rich unless her husband John or someone from that sector of the party had their sights on primarying or forcing a convention on Wolf in 08 if Heidi Stirrup would have won. This could almost be seen as a test convention vote on Congressman Wolf's popularity. Vote wise, I think Wolf's people still dominate 10th politics.

[Loudoun Insider]

Jim Fisher may have been a heavy handed in his approach, but I believe that firmness was needed to keep things moving along. The other side's choice for Convention Chair was Suzanne Volpe, who brings her own baggage. While McHugh went crazy on one side, the other side of the convention hall had Eugene Delgaudio and Dimitri Kesari acting like rabid cheerleaders. It definitely was not a pretty picture, and certainly not a good face for the party. It's a good thing events like that aren't televised! The next 10th District Convention will be a closely watched affair. I wonder if Wolf challenger Vern McKinley will show up on the opposition side to cause a scene.

Neither Volpe or Fisher should have been temporary chair that day. Fisher was a big supporter of Rich and Volpe a huge supporter of Stirrup. They could or should have picked a neutral party.
McKinley so far appears to have just about 0 support from Republicans throughout the district. He may have a few libertarians but thats about it.
Rich survived handily in 06 so I really don't think anyone will attempt to do the same thing again. People will think twice this time about going against the wishes of a a sitting Congressman, especially right before a contested election. Basically a vote against Rich is a vote against Congressman Wolf.

[John Light]

To the person who did not sign their name (or alias) who wrote: "She could have outnumbered Gill's supporters by 3-1 but she did not work at all. She ran an absolutely horrible campaign and did virtually nothing until a few days before the convention."

Let me go on record and say that you are right. She DID slack off. All she did was make phone calls every night, send out mailers, have volunteers working non-stop for her every night and all day on weekends. Her campaign was going against someone with unlimited funds from terrorist organizations around this country (go to vpap.org and you will see that nobody from the 51st dontated money to the Gill campaign.

If the Lucas campaign HAD gotten off of their butts, they could have done a better job raising money not from the lowly mom and pop from the 51st (come on, who actually raises money legitimately anymore, right "no-name"??? If she had worked, MAYBE she could have gotten some other terrorist organization to fund her money, then, stuff the ballot boxes as the Gill campaign did in the 50-worst convention, paid off the pwers-that-be, and then won the election.

Unfortunately, the Lucas campaign ran a campaign with honor. They did not have men working for them who believe a womans job is to vote the way their husband tells them to. They did not have men working for them who have violated the UCMJ. And they DID NOT have workers who not only speak the language, but are actual voting citizens of the 51st.

So yes, I agree with you. She DID slack off on her campaign. She DOES have a history of that, you know. She won her last election against just one person with 65% of the vote, this time with two opponents she only got 71%. MAYBE if she worked harder, she could have gotten 99%. The other 1%, why those would be Faisal Gill supporters seeing as how the rest of his supporters live in Texas, Maryland, Illinois, The Department of Homeland Security lol.

[James Young]

Regarding the Anon (12/26) comment, it never fails to amaze me how the people who savage Kopko and the PWC GOP over the completely letigimate 51st District Convention have nothing to say about Jim Rich's underhanded tactics in maintaining his position in the 10th.