The Virginia Primary

These are just the thoughts of me and me alone, but here is what I predict will happen in Virginia.

Republicans
The most visible endorsements among Virignia Republicans for the remaining candidates are Lt. Governor Bill Bolling for Mitt Romney, Speaker Bill Howell for Mike Huckabee, and Senator John Warner for John McCain. First off, Bolling's endorsement of Romney came early and I think it signals that the conservative, Richmond junto will be Romney's strength in the state. I look for Romney to do very well in the Richmond exurbs that make the heart of the Bliley/Gilmore/Bolling. Though Gilmore has stayed away, I have little doubt he will himself be voting for Romney. Romney will also do well in Prince William County in Northern Virginia, where Republicans are driven by illegal immigration. A look at Romney's Virginia elected supporters reflect Romney's strength in Central VA and in PWC. Romney will have to max out every single vote he can find in these areas.

As for John McCain, his support is formidable. His power centers around Northern Virginia where a lot of federal employees will support him. In 2000 despite losing Virginia to George W. Bush, McCain carried the 11th, 8th, 2nd. What do they have in common? More affluent areas in the 11th and 8th with loads of fedearl employees who like McCain. Furthermore, McCain will be boosted by support from Rep. Tom Davis, who's name still carries meaning despite his retirement. As for the 2nd, its loaded with military veterans and voters who have been flocking to McCain. McCain's official supporters reflect his strength in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. There is a huge glob of votes in these areas, and if McCain can get turnout high he could take a commanding lead.

As for Huckabee, I really think he will do well Southside. Though my prediction isn't particularly ingenious, what Huckabee showed me on Super Tuesday that he can connect with rural and religious voters. Despite the Kilgroe's lineing up behind McCain, I think Huckabee will do well Southside and in SWVA among the rural voters who were backing Fred Thompason.

In the end, the analysis in Virginia is what it has been all over the country. Religious conservatives for whom Romney wishes he could have will slide to Huckabee. As I've outlined, Romney should do very well in the Richmond suburbs thats the center of power for the old Bliley Machine that has given us Gilmore and Bolling, among others. Though there are votes there, the massive numbers McCain will run up in the miltary-centered 2nd district and among the more moderate Tom Davis Northern Virginians will carry the day. Romney's chances of holding up will be lost when Huckabee runs up strong numbers in rural VA in the West and Southside. In fact, I think Huckabee could finish second in this primary of he gets enough of his voters out. I believe that Romney will be boxed into Richmond and PWC and almost knowhere else. McCain will dominate Northern Virginia and Hampton, enough to earn a comfortable vitory.

Predicted Winner: Senator John McCain.

Democrats
Here are the list of Obama suppoters in Virginia: Gov. Tim Kaine, Rep. Bobby Scott, Rep. Rick Boucher, ex-First Lady Lisa Collis (Marky Mark's wife) and current First Lady Ann Holton, Mayor Doug Wilder, 10 out of the 21 Virginia Democrat state senators, 18 Virginia Democratic Delegates lead by Leader Ward Armstong. Obama's support is wide-spread and across the state in terms of endorsements. Rural, Northern Virginia, balck leaders, women, everyone. I expect Obama to blow up in Richmond and among rural black voters. But I do not think he will win this primary. Why?

Look to Massachusetts. Then look to Northern Virginia.

As Massachusetts showed, endorsments mean nothing in this primary for Democrats. Real divisions along race and sex have developed in the Democrat primary. And though Toddy Puller and Janet Howell are backing Obama, I think the grassroots liberals in the party will come out for Hillary in huge numbers. Much like in McCain's case, Northern Virginia is chalk full of federal employees who still revere Bill Clinton, especially after 7 years of Bush. I think white women will fuel a Hillary stampede in Northern Virignia and Hampton Roads as well. Though I'm not as much an expert here, I just have this feeling that Hillary will win a tight race.

Predicted Winner: Senator Hillary Clinton.

Comments

[Old Zach]

Good analysis, but I do have a couple questions? What about the African-American vote? Do you think this federal employee and women vote will outweigh the huge advantage Obama will have in the urban centers? I think Missouri is instructive in that case, where Clinton won virtually every county between Kansas City and St. Louis, but lost the state. Also, what about the rural white Democrats in SWVA who might have gone for Edwards (call them the "Mudcat vote")? Might they go for Obama as well?

[SE VA MWC Alum]

Mudcat vote is a good question. Do they go with Obama, Hillary, vote in the R primary or just not show up. Obama most likely wins Hpt. Roads. Agreed that Hillary's strength is in NOVA but there are a lot of young high tech types up there that may go with Obama. Personally, I like McCain (although not a Republican).

One good thing for all is that VA's vote counts this year instead of it being over before we vote.

[Spank That Donkey]

I Love it Chris... Mr Limited Government, John McPain will do well with all the Federal Employees... Absoulutely, because he talks out of both sides of his mouth...

If Virginia doesn't reject McPain the nation is in serious trouble...

Have you considered that Conservatives much older than you have been tired of McPain's BS for a long time now, just due to exposure?

Come on down here for a week and hang out with us, you might get a different perspective than you get hanging out in NOVA. No disrespect, I think you are just getting a little too comfortable up thar in NOVA...

[Chris Beer]

Spanky, I've been born and raised in NOVA. This is my home.

I would say that perhaps the rest of VIrginia should come up here for a week to see what ist like.

I just realized I don't know how the primaries are set up -- would I go to my normal polling place no matter which party's candidate I am voting for? Thank you.

[Simon Oliver Lockwood]

Just got a pro-Huckabee push poll in NoVa. The questions dealt with immigration, taxes, & life. The final questions dealt with Mark Warner vs Jim Gilmore. No disclamer in the call either.