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March 02, 2008

Warner Not Running For Senate?

Via Spanky, we find a fascinating article in the New York Observer about rumors that Mark Warner might ditch his US Senate race to run for Vice-President with Barack Obama.  First off, if this is true, isn't it a bid dishonest for Warner to be telling people he wants to be a US senator when he doesn't?  But thats politics, I can live with that.  Still, this is a fascinating story:

At a private fund-raiser for a nonprofit organization in New York yesterday, Warner was asked by an attendee about his interest in being a Democratic running mate. In response, he said he was commited to the Senate race, but also noted that he never rules anything out.

And a Virginia investor and influential Warner supporter I spoke to afterward seemed to reaffirm the idea that the VP idea was in play. “I can’t imagine that he’d rule it out,” the supporter said.

With Warner in the Senate race, national Democrats have been penciling in the Virginia contest as an almost-guaranteed Senate seat pickup, a rare opportunity for a sweat-free incursion into traditionally Republican turf. A former governor with stratospheric favorable ratings, Warner leads his presumed Republican opponent, former Governor Jim Gilmore, by at least 20 points, a margin that probably won’t shrink much before Election Day. (There’s a remote chance that Bob Marshall, an ardent abortion foe in the Virginia House of Delegates, could beat out Gilmore at the G.O.P. state convention this spring.)

But a perfectly plausible scenario exists that would enable Obama (assuming, of course, that he’s the nominee) to tap Warner—something that would instantly enhance the Democratic ticket’s prospects of carrying Virginia and its 13 electoral votes for the first time since 1964—while preserving the party’s strong position in the Senate race.

The idea is that Tim Kaine or, of all people, Don Beyer would replace Warner in the Senate race.  For Kaine, its a risk that could leave the statehouse in the hands of Bill Bolling.  Nominating Beyer would ensure that Democrats have someone with money, but this guy would make a liberal blush in how left wing he is.  I personally don't believe this will happen, because Jim Gilmore gains 15 points on Don Beyer just because nobody remembers who he is in terms of being a politician.  But despite the uselessness of the VP office, its grown considerably in recent times and Mark Warner could position himself for the higher office he clearly covets.  Helping Obama defeat Hillary could be sweet revenge for the Clinton-machine pushing out Warner by however the did last year.

Comments

This makes sense, except that would mean two people on the ticket with very little political experience and no foreign policy experience. Putting Warner on the ticket would be Obama's only hope of carrying Virginia.

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