McCain/Gilmore vs. Obama/Warner

A very interesting analysis by DCPost's Tim Craig.

I think its pretty good work by Craig, but he misses one major curveball in Northern Virginia that could be the turning point in both the presidential and Senate races:  the 11th District.  Tom Davis's five-point drop between 2004 and 2006 more than makes the vote difference between Jim Webb and George Allen.  Gerry Connolly is a formadible but flawed candidate - the "Other Gerry" is a story that is out there but no Republican has effectively communicated.  Keith Fimian, both the man and the campaign, has much more fire than Gary Baise did, and more resources to get the other story out.  Connolly's weak performance in Prince William County (despite the endorsements of Paul Nichols and John Jenkins) is a warning that 40% of the district are not fans.  If Fimian can win this race, and it'll be close if he does, the ramifications on the Senate and Presidential race could be huge in Virginia; particularly the Senate race.

The second thing Craig misses is any discusison of the issues.  His analysis is based purely on identity politics.  But Jim Gilmore is a street fighter, and he's best when he is an underdog.  He wasn't suppose to beat Steve Agee, William Dolan, or Don Beyer.  Yet he beat all three, and did so pretty comfortable.  Gilmore has a knack of understanding kitchen table issues, to zero in on a couple of things that really hurt folks, and just hammer away at his opponents with it.  Some forget that people really hated the Car Tax.  Gilmore is looking at gas prices and his insistence that beginning to allow domestic exploration will be a good argument to win over voters angry at the pump.  At his best, Gilmore plays his own form of conservative populism; and has been blessed with rich opponents he can paint as out of touch.  He did it with Beyer, and Warner is an inviting target.  Warner, this far, has underwhelmed while the Marshall contest has helped re-sharpen Gilmore's skills.  Every single person who has run against Jim Gilmore has dismissed him, as Craig seems to do, and his "combative style."  But Gilmore, along with Fimian and McCain, enter the contest as the de-facto underdogs.  They have to be combative - its how Jim Webb won.  Mark Warner seems willing to rest on his past laurels, and he needs to be careful because I think he's running flat-footed right now and the political conversation is always changing.  He can have ads with Lord Chichester all he wants, but Gilmore is out there talking about the price of gas the idiocy of not allowing domestic production to free ourselves from the Arab oil cartels.  Virginia has a real rebellious streak to it, and Gilmore has fit that mold in the past.  But its up to him to make the case, and it won't be easy.  But McCain's standing among independents might give Gilmore a second chance to preach his message of the future while Warner seems stuck in the past. 

For Republicans to win in Virginia, these are the most important thing.  John McCain maintains popularity with moderate and independent voters, Jim Gilmore continues to hammer Mark Warner relentlessly on issues that matter now, and Keith Fimian rise to the occasion and provide GOP excitement in the 11th and win.  It will be exceedingly difficult but the best thing about our team - they have nothing to lose since we aren't suppose to win anyways.  The "minority mentality" and the quiet weaknesses in all three of the Democrat candidates discussed here gives his room to move. 

So while pundits like Craig base their analysis on identity politics, my view is that we have complete control of our destiny.  We just need our people to go out and make it.

Comments

[Spank That Donkey]

Well said Chris, Craig is using the conventional wisdom.

I think Warner has committed a macaca with his $6 Billion dollar lie... it is completely made up to try and justify a $1.4 Billion dollar tax increase.

Here is my point... the MSM always whispered that Allen was a racist, constantly, and using this Goebbels strategy of repeating the lie, got it in the psyche of Virginians....

Well when macaca hit, they had their so called evidence that they of course doctored thanks to wikipedia.

Now all Virginians know that Warner lied on vowing not to raise taxes, and to phase out the car tax...

Now he has just given Gilmore the ammunition to show that he is still just lying...

You know what I mean?

Warner lies, when the truth would do him just fine.... I just think he can't help himself.

He literally puts a lie right into his campaign literature, and then gets lackeys in the press to drill home to the electorate, how big a liar he really is....

What a strategery....