Burning Jim Gilmore

A small conversation started at Too Conservative about many Republicans lack of support of Jim Gilmore in the US Seante race.  Whatever excuse people use, I just cannot accept it.  To me, he is our candidate and the US Senate and the country is far better off with a Republican Seante than a solidified Dem one.  This mind-split of many Republicans, sadly too many up here in Northern Virginia, is one of the most frustrating things I've had to deal with in my short time active in politics.  The main criticism I hear up here is that Gilmore is a "jerk."  Perhaps, I don't know the man personally.  But I also personally don't care.  Lets break it down.

All of this boils down to Tom Davis and Jim Gilmore.  I started off a fervent Tom Davis supporter, his strength in Northern Virginia us unparalleled in the state, and he had spent a good four years working the rest of the state and was starting to see it pay dividends.  I think Tom was our strongest candidate.   So the first stage was a vote for nomination by means of either a convention or a primary.  Gilmore favored a convention and Davis favored a primary - predictably because each played to the candidate's strengths.  The vote came down at State Central, and Tom had claimed publicly that he had the votes.  He didn't.  I was there as a proxy, I watched it all unfold.  Gilmore beat Tom Davis fair and square, nothing more nothing less.  Tom made a mistake by insisting that the ballot be secret, so people who told him yes to his face could vote against him without being outed.  After this, Tom vowed to continue to the convention.  At least thats what his people said leaving the school this took place.

But he didn't.  He quit.  He took his ball and went home.  To this day, I still believe Tom Davis could have taken Jim Gilmore in a convention, and he owed it to many of his supporters who went all in with him to do it.  So with that void, nobody seemed willing to fill it.  I waited for Eric Cantor to get in.  I waited for Randy Forbes or Peter Pace or Chris Saxman.  I too thought Gilmore was not our strongest candidate.

But they all kept saying no.  Gilmore kept saying yes.  His willingness to take on Mark Warner from the very start is something to be admired, and something that I understood.  Instead of trying to get people in who didn't want to make the race, we had a candidate who really did and who is a 97% conservative.  That missing 3% was the platform of Bob Marshall, who admire, but was just too ambiguous on Iraq and too protectionist for me.  I decided to give Jim Gilmore my 100% support because he wanted to fight when maybe five others said no.

Is Jim Gilmore a perfect candidate?  No.  But I made the point on TC that Gilmore is our candidate, he represents our party mainstream, and deserves our support.  Its a two-way street.  Many rock Gilmore for not raising money, but I wonder why people are giving more?  The one thing I constantly admire about the Democrats in this state is their single-mindedness to victory, no matter who the candidate its.  We tried to believe that the Miller-Webb divide would hold.  It didn't.  As for us?  Gilmore is probably a thousand times more conservative than John McCain, but we ignore that right?  On what issue does Jim Gilmore hold that so many Republicans reject?  

So that makes me believe that this is personal.  And it is.  There is no question that Jim Gilmore is a politician with sharp elbows, I can't otherwise.  But thats who I want taking on Mark Warner right now, someone willing to fight.  Yet when I talk to some folks out there, they just don't like him.  Its so childish, and so counter-productive.  We are Republicans, friends.  We want to win elections and the fact that we don't do all we can for Jim Gilmore right now is just shameful.  And it all begins in Northern Virginia and with Tom Davis.  It just baffles me that someone so dedicated to party-builder would so brazenly snub our Senate candidate who beat him fair and square.  Its given cover to every Davis supporter out there to open bash Gilmore while supporting Fimian and McCain openly.  And lets be honest here, all of Davis's grudges right now are self-inflicted.  Nobody told him to run his wife's race so far to the left on many core issues, while minimizing issues that conservatives care about, that she lost by 10 points, he did.  Nobody told him to quite the Senate race when, as Bob Marshall proved, Gilmore was still vulnerable even by convention.  He did.  The genesis of this anti-Gilmore Republicans starts with Tom Davis supporters in the 11th district.  And its killing me as someone trying to get out there and elect all Republicans.  All of them.  And I've head the arguments - Tom will be back in 2012.  Perhaps getting Gilmore out of the way now it will allow Davis to step in and say, "see, I told you so."  But, as a friend predicted to me, after this display, George Allen has a better chance of a comeback than Tom Davis.  Its just too bad that in such an important campaign, where Virginia has a chance to take a true stand for conservatism and show how we really think of the Democratic Congress, we will be so willing to bolster it by petty sour grapes.

Clearly many in this party are willing to perhaps give Mark Warner a seat in the Senate he can have for as long as he wants.  Thats not acceptable to me.  Its too bad that it is for a lot of people in this party.  

 

Comments

[James Atticus Bowden]

Thanks for the commentary. Loyalty is a one-way street for too many Establishment Republicans.

[SWAC Girl]

You make excellent points, Chris, as you have before on this subject. Where is the GOP establishment to stump for Jim Gilmore? I have linked to you.

[mytwocents]

I completely disagree about the how the anti-Gilmore stuff started. This has been brewing since he left the governors mansion. Its like this all over the state right now and even worse in some areas outside of NOVA. NOT just with TD supporters.
Gilmore has managed to upset both sides of the party not only the establishement Republicans. Tom Davis Republicans are just a very small group that do not like Gilmore. Allen Republicans, Marshall Republicans, McDonnell Republicans, even some Bolling Republicans, and you name it Republicans do not like Gilmore. I have met very few committee people that do like him. That is his biggest problem. In many places no one has seen or heard from his campaign period. Don't expect people to take you or your campaign seriously when you cannot raise any money or show up at events. It is my opinion this is the most disasterious Republican campaign in modern history here in Virginia.

This race is over. The biggest question is how to we prevent this from happening again in a winnable Senate race?

[Buffal0Bill]

Jim Gilmore is pro-choice. Going along with the killing of unborn babies is abhorrent to me. I will vote for him as the lesser of two evils, but I can not give him money or campaign for him. Whine all you want, but I can recall Mike Farris for Lt. Gov. and Oliver North for Senate among others where "John Warner" Republicans refused to support them and wouldn't vote for them. Pro-life Republicans have voted for pro-choice candidates in the past, and the reverse hasn't always been true. Now I see "establishment" Republicans not supporting JIm Gilmore for other reasons. Please no more lectures to social conservatives about being single issue voters, etc.

[Disagree]

I generally agree with your analysis. However, I do not believe that this starts and ends with Tom Davis Republicans in Northern Virginia.

While Northern Virginia may be cool to Jim Gilmore's candidacy, it appears from polling that the same attitude can be found in other parts of the Commonwealth. Gilmore is not beating Mark Warner in Virginia Beach or other key population centers.

Also look to Gilmore's fundraising. Where is his base support from Richmond or his network from his years as a state-wide official and former RNC chairman? One Congressman is not going to deny a state-wide candidate their ability to raise campaign funds.

While Davis and Gilmore may not see eye to eye, it seems that Davis is only taking a pragmatic view point towards the 11th District.

Do you believe that McCain, Palin, and Fimian are capable of pulling Gilmore across the victory line in the 11th District? I do not. In fact, Gilmore is the drag on the chance of having Republican victories in the 11th CD.

There is a basic level of credibility that a candidate must bring to the table on their own. Their key groups of supporters, donors, etc. From FEC reports, its hard to see that Gilmore has even this group well-defined, motivated and actively supporting his candidacy. If he does not have that basic level of support from Richmond, why would Fairfax provide it?

I agree that we need to support him, but the causes of his current standing should be focused on the candidate himself.

[GOP4Ever]

The man is a jerk. My personal experience: I've extended at least 3 personal invites to his campaign contacts, personal email and his secretary at his law firm to speak to my GOP group. He never returned my call or via email. In addition, everytime I see him (at least 5 events) he never seems to want to really. It's just 3 seconds of "Hello I'm Jim Gilmore running for US Senate" then he moves on. I will never phonebank for, canvass for or donate money to his campaign

[D.J. McGuire]

Relax, Chris, it's worse than you think.

See, a lot of people in RPV are (a) moderates, or (b) social conservatives only (or first). Gilmore, by contrast, is an economic conservative first. Moderates don't like him because he took a hard line on taxes; social conservatives are upset at him over the abortion stuff, but many of them are also comfortable with tax hikes, and thus their anger at Gilmore is compounded.

For both groups, a tax-hiking Democrat is actually preferable to Gilmore; they just don't want to admit that to anyone, so they play this "he's a jerk" game, when in reality they couldn't care less what kind of person he is.

[J. Scott]

If Gilmore wants to right the ship maybe he ought to be touting that national security experience/Homeland Security/ Gilmore Commission a bit more focused.

You want to convince the pro-lifers in Chesapeake, make the campaign about Obama/Warner and proposed defense cuts and limited appropriations for the military. These cuts will hit the Eastern Virginia region hard if Obama wins and Warner is in the Senate to endorse massive defense cuts that will certainly come.

Ask yourself where BilL Clinton cut in the 90's to reduce the deficit. Defense and Military.

Alter of Freedom has an great post about this. If Virginians vote pocket-book economics they will reject the team of Obama and Warner and preserve the Virginia economy.

60 billion in spending in Virginia could simply go away with the stroke of a few pens.

[Brutus]

Great points Chris. Let me give you a Marshall supporter view on all of this. At the state convention, a Gilmore supporter asked me how and why Marshall supporters were so energized. Being a Marshall supporter, I quite frankly was speechless. I didn't know how to answer it other than to query, Marshall is more exciting? Since Gilmore is the nominee, I of course support him with my vote. But I don't really want to do more simply because, I'm not excited. The question is why not? After all, as you point out, Gilmore is a decent economic conservative vis-a-vis pork barrel Republicans. Over time, I've given it consideration and here's what I think Gilmore's current problem is.

Looking at his web page, it is vanilla moderate Republicanism that fails to address the issue of change. In terms of "Why I am running . . ." there is no halcyon cry to meaningfully cut the size of government, get government out of our lives, or preserve individual liberty and freedom. In fact, he said he's not going to get into "labels, and 'us against them'." If you intend to fight, it is us against them. You have to punish "them" and make them feel ashamed for opposing you.

The issues page offers scant distinction between him and well, the past 7 years. He's not proposing to do anything exciting. It is here that he must really set himself apart. Much of his issue statements are vague though there are nuggets to be expanded upon. He needs to come out and tell Warner and Washington, D.C., "Warner, you’re not going to be hired and Washington, you're fired!" He needs to tell us that the founding fathers are back in town and we're fighting the British. He needs to tell us that government isn't going to centrally plan our lives anymore when he gets in. He must accuse Warner of central planning and violating our rights. Those are fighting words and rile the base.

What I see in Gilmore press releases is milk toast. Warner doesn't support the right to work. *Yawn* How about, "Warner wants to take away our right to hire and fire employees and replace it with government control. He wants to limit employee choices. He wants to create an impenetrable barrier in police departments by stopping the firing of bad workers through union control. Let him go and he'll start doing that to small businesses. That's not what unions are for and Warner knows it. He's hiding the truth from you so he can get the camel's nose in the tent. If I’m elected, I’ll not only stop those like Warner, I’ll increase your freedoms." But why is the right to work issue so prominent? Why is drilling so prominent? How about a detailed economic plan?

And, where is "Palin power for Gilmore" on his page? Gilmore needs to steal that mantra for change like McCain did. No, he needs to rip it out of Warner's hands. Only then will Warner cry for a debate. But he can't do that without a message. His speeches, though smooth, lack fire in delivery. The first hint of a good attack was Gilmore’s recent attack against Warner’s promise breaking tax increase. But at the end of the commercial, all we see is, “Drill now”, “keep us safe”, and “pay less”. There was a disconnect in the video. Gilmore barely distinquishes himself. See? Where is his promise to cut taxes, cut spending, and cut the size of a bloated federal government? Where is a specific “Here’s how I’m going to get government out of the small business so you all can achieve the American Dream”? Where is limited government? That's the rally cry for Republicans everywhere.

How about a quote from Franklin on his web page: “It would be thought a hard government that should tax its people one tenth part of their time, to be employed in its service.” Gilmore could respond, "Dear God, please let us find such a hard government!"

Sorry for the rants...just a few thoughts to throw out there on why Gilmore may be having trouble. I've heard a few good speeches from him but not enough specifics to get folks excited.

[Anne]

I think I am probably best described as a pro-life, moderate Republican. That makes me one of the people set up to be ambivalent about Gilmore. I'll vote for him (I don't like tax hiking Democrats, D.J.!), but I won't go out of my way to help him, either. I feel bad admitting that. But thanks for posting some food for thought.

[David]

My past experiences in meeting with Jim Gilmore have been very positive. He has been very engaging with me and my family. You can tell that he is very interested in what people have to say about the issues of the day. My family has photos hanging on their wall with Jim Gilmore taken on three different occasions. I don't know you Mr. Gop4ever but Gov. Gilmore has never acted like a jerk when I have had the opportunity to speak with him.

[Lauren Yoder]

The question I have is " what were all the folks at the convention thinking"? I drove 4 hours to vote for Marshall becouse I knew that Gilmore would lose to Warner by at least 20%. After the vote I had folks telling me " well, now you have to support Gilmore". Well, no I don't. If the party would like to put an bad candidate on the ticket then they will just have to live with the bad results. I'm voting, but not for Warner or Gilmore.

[Anne]

I don't think Tom Davis will be back in 2012. I think he's blown it by retiring his House seat. The last couple years have been a set back, but as you say, no one told Jeannemarie to run to the left of Chap. Chap was a tough opponent. Well liked in the community, deep roots. A lot of people I know who are Republicans voted for him.

One thing that has troubled me, since I've been in Fairfax, is that people talk about Tom Davis like he's a party boss. He's not the boss of you or me. He's been a good Congressman and actually, I think he's the finest Congressman whose district I've lived in, but he chose to bow out and not fight for Senate or for re-election to his House seat. He chose this. That's fine if that is what he wants.

I've never been able to be all gung ho for anyone who just happens to be in the party. We've had some great candidates, but we've also had some bad candidates, too. I can think of many times when I've really been bummed at the poor choice, but when in doubt, I vote for the Republican unless the Republican is somehow vile. The lesser of two evils, as they say.

I'm motivated enough to vote for Gilmore because I don't want two Democratic Senators. But I also think we set ourselves up for that possibility. Marshall versus Gilmore was close, their camps were distinct, and if Gilmore really knows anything about the politics of comeback, he'll bow his head with a little honest humility and try to make peace with the Marshall supporters, many of whom clearly don't accept him yet. That, or he can just be aloof and lose big.

As far as Tom Davis, I don't expect him to do much for Gilmore of his own accord. Tom is retiring from office. I wonder if Gilmore has actually asked Tom for his support? If not, I'm not going to criticize Tom too harshly for not giving it. If (and really only if) he has asked and Tom has refused, then I do see some room to criticize Tom as a Republican official and as a prominent member of the party.

[vamayhem]

Good commentary by all. There isn't just one reason why Gilmore is having such trouble but a compilation reasons. The biggest reason is Gilmore has three word slogans as too many republicans do these days that amount to nothing to inspire the base. What's missing is a true republican message and passion from Jim Gilmore. To say that he is in line with the mainstream republicans is not correct unless the mainstream republican party is pro-choice the first 8 to 12 weeks of pregnancy. If that is the case the republican party can forget ever having any majority whether at the state or federal level. While independents and moderates might decide elections, you can't get close to the top for that too happen if you don't rally the base (social conservatives). Someone on Gilmore's campaign told me...you pro-lifers don't get it...you can't see the forest because of the tree. I explained to them that you can't get through the forest if you don't deal with that tree (pro-life, social conservatives). You might not like this but it is the reality of the day. What republican candidates are learning the hard way is that if you run away from the social conservative issues you will lose. Sure your political consultants might tell you to stay clear of these issues as they will upset the other side but these people will never vote for you anyhow. Politics 101, you have to rally the base first. Why Jim Gilmore would say he is pro-choice the first 8 to 12 weeks of pregnancy as a republican candidate in Virginia makes no political sense. Mark Warner already has the pro-choice vote. You only anger the base as was shown at the convention. How a two-time state wide office holder could barely win to Delegate Bob Marshall proves this point. Bob Marshall is a principle leader in the social conservative movement. He is a new face in the republican party statewide. He had a clear and concise republican message to the voters and if had won the election, which some believe he did, would have painted a clear contrast btw himself and Mark Warner. Well Gilmore is the candidate now and he is harvesting what he planted. Nobody can be blamed but Jim Gilmore and his consultants. Sarah Palin's introduction to the presidential ticket has shown this. Before she was chosen McCain was our choice but few were excited and Obama was poised for victory. Now the base is excited and will work hard for the ticket and just look how the press is handling it. They as well as the democrats are in a panic. Plain, old-fashioned, never out of style principles still win the day for republicans if were gutsy enough, as Marshall was and Gilmore isn't, to win the day. Gilmore has only himself to blame. If he gets 35% of the vote I will be impressed. We can't be blamed for Gilmore's problems. He thinks this is owed to him, give me a break. If he wants to represent me he has to earn it and he isn't doing so.

[Mason Democrat]

Chris,

Can you fault the establishment for not directing precious time and resources to a candidate without a realistic path to victory? Since I'm a Democrat, I'm not going to pretend to know what is at the heart of the GOP, nor am I going to "concern troll," but here's how I would see it if the tables were turned...

The presidential race is very, very competitive nationally, and is quite competitive here in Virginia as well. There is a GOP open seat in a now Democratic-leaning congressional district. Thelma Drake, though in less trouble than in 2006, still has a spirited challenge and the prospect of a significant increase in African-American turnout with Obama on the ticket.

Addressing all these issues requires time and money, both of which are finite resources. Gilmore is admirable from a party perspective in that he was willing to take on a candidate in Mark Warner who was probably going to beat anyone on the GOP side. But there's just no reasonable scenario where he wins or even cracks 45-46%. With all the other competitive races this year, including POTUS, if Gilmore was the D and Warner the R, I think I'd probably cut bait too.

That's not to say it's necessarily fair to Gilmore, but you've seen the polls and the incredible fundraising gap. The GOP establishment might make things a little closer, but since it's highly unlikely they could come close to winning, I can understand them directing their efforts to races where they can win.

[Fred Newbrough]

I don't know what is wrong with conservatives and the GOP in Virginia but there is something wrong when a guy who ran on tax cuts and cut them 1.5 billion dollars, left a fully balanced budget with a surplus, signed into law some of the strickest pro-life legistlation in the nation and he is slandered on his budget, slandered on his record as not being pro-life enough. I've met Jim Gilmore, he is a millionaire and is one of the most unassuming guys I've met in politics. Eric was out there campaigning for him.

Here is one thing for certain. Mark Warner will vote with the Democrat congress. There is no question where he will stand on life issues, there is no question where he will stand on energy issues, tax issues, and on traditional family issues. There is still time for Virginia to wake up but with so many selfish childish Christians and gop politicos I'm not sure if they deserve a real leader that gives you his word and keeps it.

This race is an embarassment not because of Jim Gilmore. He has been running himself ragged from one end of this state to the other while people complain he doesn't give them a personal phone call back. Come on people get with. Volunteer, help Jim, Eric, Goode,Goodlatte, and the whole slate of conservatives get elected. Even though we will not win every race we can at least say we did not retreat from challenge.

Jim Gilmore, Steve Pearce(NM) and others have been given up for dead by the national party who seems intent or snatching defeat from the cusp of victory. Let us say that on election day that we did our part even if they failed to do theirs.

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