2010 US Senate, Kentucky-Wisconsin

So a couple days ago I outlined the 2010 Senate races here from Alabama to Kansas.  We have four pickup possibilities in Colorado, Illinois, Delaware, and Connecticut if we run the right candidates and get our message together.  We also have only one major loss possibility so far in Florida.  Here's the rest of the lineup:

ALABAMA, ALASKA, ARIZONA, ARKANSAS, CALIFORNIA, COLORADO, CONNECTICUT, DELAWARE, FLORIDA, GEORGIA, HAWAII, IDAHO, ILLINOIS, INDIANA, IOWA, KANSAS, KENTUCKY, LOUISIANA, MARYLAND, MISSOURI, NEVADA, NEW HAMPSHIRE, NEW YORK, NORTH CAROLINA, NORTH DAKOTA, OHIO, OKLAHOMA, OREGON, PENNSYLVANIA, SOUTH CAROLINA, SOUTH DAKOTA, TEXAS, UTAH, VERMONT, WASHINGTON, WISCONSIN

Kentucky:  Jim Bunning (R)

Bunning might be a good conservative but he is also one of the worst members of the US Senate, a combination of hapless and blowhard.  He almost talked himself out of the seat in 2004 and staring him down right now is Rep. Ben Chandler.  But McCain and McConnell both won here.  If Bunning runs again, and he wants too, this could be bad news.  In addition to Chandler, one candidate has already announced, a former whistle-blower named Darlene Fitzgerald.  To hold this seat, Republicans in Kentucky need to dump Bunning.  He can still win, but he will be 79 in 2010.  A perfect candidate would be new Rep. Brett Guthrie, who I like.  Also there is former LG Steve Pence who openly broke with the former indicted gov, Ernie Fletcher.  But either way, Kentucky is still Republican in national elections as evidence by McCain and McConnell's victories.  Bunning will be the slight favorite but one more gaffe and he could be finished.

Toss-Up

Louisiana:  David Vitter (R)

Vitter was the first candidate in years, and first Republican ever, to win a US Senate seat in Louisiana without going into a runoff.  That won't happen this time.  Vitter has been a tremendous conservative leader in the Senate, but the DC madame scandal has hurt.  But Louisiana has turned more reliably Republican with the effects of Katrina and he will still be the favorite.  I think the fact that Vitter came clean before the story broke helps with the mea culpa.  I think the favorite for the Dem nomination is probably LG Mitch Landieu, brother of the current senator.  I think despite everything, Vitter is the favorite here.  Landrieu is a good candidate, but the demographics aren't there to take on an incumbent.

Leans Republican

Maryland:  Barbara Mukulski (D)

Nothing much to see here.  The only drama will come if Mukulski retires, which she might.  The favorite to replace her would be Chris Van Hollen.  But either way the GOP can't win a national election in Maryland.  

Safe Democrat

Missouri:  Kit Bond (R)

Bond is fine.  He's an institution in the state even when the Repubs have lost ground in the state.  This race might make a little noise at the end of the election, but I doubt anyone with serious stones will challenge Senator Bond, his last election he got 56%, a solid cushion to run on

Safe Republican

Nevada:  Harry Reid (D)

Aaaah, the apple dangles before the GOP.  Harry Reid has serious problems back home, with his approval ratings in the mid-to-low 40s.  But Obama just carried Nevada so he's the clear favorite.  The Republicans have taken a beating and will continue to with the unpopular GOP governor Jim Gibbons.  Republicans took a beating in congressional races, losing top challenger Jon Porter.  Who knows, he might still run.  There is also Rep. Dean Heller who is probably the best challenger right now.  Things are tough for the GOP in Nevada and Reid is no longer as vulnerable as he once seemed.

Leans Democrat

New Hampshire:  Judd Gregg (R)

He's the most popular politician in NH, so he should be fine.  He's been around forever and the people seem to know and trust him.  He's a sure bet for reelection.

Safe Republican

New York:  Chuck Schumer (D)

Safe as safe can be.  If the GOP is going to make gains in NY, its going to be running for governor not trying to take out Schumer.  

Safe Democrat

North Carolina:  Richard Burr (R)

Obama win NC and Liddy Dole went down in flames, so Richard Burr is in trouble.  The difference is that Dole never excited the conservatives the way Burr does so he should be running from a stronger base.  He is also a tremendous fundraiser.  Expect challenges from outgoing Gov. Mike Easly or Rep. Heath Schuler.

Toss-Up

North Dakota:  Byron Dorgan (D)

When, oh lord when, will the GOP recruit a candidate worth something to run against one of these Democrat senators from North Dakota?  Hopefully John Cornyn can do what Ensign couldn't, and that is to recruit and convince Gov. John Hoeven to run for the US Senate.  Dorgan has been around a long time and has a bit of the Abramoff taint on him.  Hoeven can beat Dorgan, but nobody else can.

Toss-Up if Hoeven enters, Safe Democrat if he doesn't

Ohio:  George Voinovich (R)

Another state party in chaos, another vulnerable senator.  Catch a theme?  Voinovich is a squishy McCain-type, so he might even get a challenge.  I doubt it though.  Plenty of Dems to go after him including SecState Brunner and Rep. Space among others.  Voinovich has to be the favorite though.

Leans Republican

Oklahoma:  Tom Coburn (R)

Expect a classice Sen vs. Gov race here with term-limited Governor Brad Henry making a run at Coburn, but unlike Burr, Coburn has the demographics on his side.  McCain and Inhofe both won here and Coburn is loved and respected for his principles and his independence.  I suspect Henry will give him a good run, but Coburn's tenacious campaigning, outsider-status, and devoted conservative base will come through for him.

Leans Republican

Oregon:  Ron Wyden (D)

No worries here, even if Gordon Smith tries to run again.  Wyden will have no problems

Safe Democrat

Pennsylvania:  Arlen Specter (R)

Specter has already said he will run again and he should do just fine.  Nobody will challenge him because he is just too popular.  But if his cancer comes back and forces him to retire, this is a prime Dem pick-up chance.  But Specter is a warrior, he will be fine.

Safe Republican

South Carolina:  Jim DeMint (R)

Again, nothing to worry about for the best senator in Congress.

Safe Republican

South Dakota:  John Thune (R)

Stephanie Herseth could make a strong run at this seat, but Thune is popular in South Dakota and has been fine ever since he save their air force base from being closed down.  Conservatives will rally to him and he has been in tight, tight elections before.  Herseth could make a challenge, but Thune is the favorite.

Leans Republican

Texas:  Kay Baily Hutchinson (R)

So here's the deal.  Hutchinson is likely to resign so she can run for governor in 2010, which will allow Rick Perry to appoint a successor and then have a special election.  There are a lot of Republicans out there:  Perry himself, Dewhurst, Abbot, Hensarling, among many many others.  But the man to watch is Texas Railroad Chairman Michael Williams, a charismatic black Republican who has deep experience in running statewide.  Perry might appoint Williams to help his position in a primary against Hutchinson.  Of the Democrats, its probably Houston Mayor Bill White or Rep. Chet Edwards (who represents George W. Bush).  As usual, Texas politics makes for great theater.  Edwards is probably a better candidate than White, but no matter, Republicans continue to dominate Texas.

Safe Republican-please GOD make it Michael Williams.

Utah:  Bob Bennett (R)

This is the most Republican state in the Union, so if Bennett runs or not it doesn't matter.  If he doesn't, it will either be Gov. Huntsman or newly-minted Rep. Chaffitz.

Safe Republican 

Vermont:  Pat Leahy (D)

If Leahy runs, and he will, he's safe as safe can be.  If not, Jim Douglas could make things fun.  But its a Dem state and they might like to stir a few GOP govs in New England, but not likely for a Senate race.

Safe Democrat

Washington:  Patty Murray (D)

Washington is a lot like Pennsylvania, its a state that continues to give the GOP small signs of hope but keeps breaking our hearts.  Patty Murray is in the Democrat leadership and will be very hard to take down.  One intriguing name is Rep. Dave Reichert, the man who closed the Green River killings.  He continues to win in a difficult district in suburban Seattle that includes King County, the heart of the Democrat stronghold in Washington.  He could give her a run, but Murrary is strong.

Leans Democrat

Wisconsin:  Russ Feingold (D)

The days of thinking Feingold is beatable are over.  The Republicans will make their run at the open governor's race, not here.

Safe Democrat

Comments

[Utah Voter]

You're way off on your prediction for Utah. Governor Huntsman's second term as governor carries him into 2012 and it's highly unlikey that he'll take a run at a Senate seat in the middle of his term. He might do so for a Cabinet appointment, but that's not likely to happen either.

As for Jason Chaffetz jumping from House to Senate in two years--Jason himself has made it clear he will not seek Senator Bennett's seat in 2010. I do know two or three politicians who are eying the seat and within a few months I promise you'll hear them announce they're throwing their hats into the ring.

[brimur]

I appreciate your attempt here. It's comprehensive. But I think you're off on Missouri, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin.

Robin Carnahan will be formidable in Missouri - and Kit Bond may retire rather than go through that. New Hampshire is trending very hard Democrat and Lynch, Hodes, or Marchand would pose a serious challenge to Gregg.

Finally, Wisconsin is a funny state. I think Feingold could have a tougher time than you think. And depending on what the polling looks like- your rising star, Paul Ryan could run.

Robin Carnahan would make Kit Bond vulnerable.

Vitter is vulnerable...he isn't the family values candidate he professed to be, and he never was. Mitch Landrieu could win this one for the Democrats.

Specter was never that popular...and he only received 51% in the primary against Pat Toomey in 2004. Someone like Rep. Joe Sestak could easily beat Specter.

You're right...the Republicans would be smart to appoint Williams if Hutchison wins the governor's race.

If Hoeven runs against Dorgan, Dorgan will still win. Burr (NC) was never the strongest candidate, and can be beaten. Voinovich is strong, but a Dem like Tim Ryan or Space could win too. Robin Carnahan could narrowly defeat Bond, but Missouri is always so close that you just never know most of the time.

If the Democrats can pick up Florida, New Hampshire, Missouri, Louisiana, Ohio, and North Carolina, they could have nearly two-thirds of all the Senate seats.

[asmith]

Interesting analysis.

I don't think the GOP has a shot in any of the 4 Democratic states you mentioned.

OK: Henry/Coburn will go down to the wire. Henry has been re-elected twice in the state. Governor Henry is more talented than the Boren's or Edmundson's in OK. I'd call it a tossup.

Texas, Perry won't appoint Williams. Williams wants to run for Attorney General. He'll likely appoint someone like former Rep. Henry Bonilla, Lt.Gov David Dewhurst, or former SOS Roger Williams. 2010 will be an interesting statewide election in Texas. Democrats have been making gains since 2002. State house is 76-74 GOP, Senate is at least 19-12 GOP, but likely to be 18-13GOP after the runoff election. GOP is favored to hold the seat, but the state is going back to two party status.

[Lanny44]

I don't see the dems losing any more than maybe Salazar's seat in Colo. On the other hand the republicans can lose up to 6 maybe 7 seats. Bunnuing should be toast--Vitter should be toast--Burr is weak---Thune is weak and if the Republicans insist on killing union workers Expect people like Specter, Voinovich, Bond and Gregg to pay the price---Specter can lose in PA--I live here and have watched it become very blue in the last 10 years.

[The runnin' fool]

I like the analysis. A few updates, though, to rain on the overall parade...

1. Judd Gregg--He's out now. won't run in 2010. This sucks for Brand R, since the state is going blue, and there isn't a real viable alternative to Paul Hoades up there. gov. Lynch probably won't run, but either of them could beat a Republican. Sorry, but advantage? Dems.

2. George Voinovich--Like Judd Gregg, a retiring Senator in an increasingly Democratic state doesn't bode well. Even if Rob Portman can win the seat, there will be a lot of time and resources diverted from other races, to make this happen. Advantage? Pick 'em.

3. Kit Bond--see points one and two above. Roy Blunt could pick up the seat, but this state, as always, will come right down to the wire. Again, not where the GOP wants to be spending time and money. Advantage? Pick 'em

4. Chris Dodd--on the flip side, the bloom is certainly off this rose. The problem for the GOP is finding a candidate who can challenge a suddenly unpopular 6 term Senator. Conservatives would love a GOP pick up, but not someone like Chris Shays. Shays could win, but he would drive the Limbaugh crowd crazy with his moderate views on everything from environmental policies to tax compromises. Still, Shays could be a real player in this race. Advantate? Democratic, but by less each day...

[gvldoh byspfeiz]

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