In what was otherwise a completely ridiculous list (No Palin? No Steele? No Hensarling? No DeMint?), Chris Cillizza's has nailed it when he put Bob McDonnell No. 5 on the list. And its not because McDonnell has any sort of national name, but because of what this governor's race means in 2009. Bob McDonnell is our last vanguard, and if he fails we have to sit around for three long years and stew on the fact we have all our three statewides with a D after their name.
5. Bob McDonnell: McDonnell, Virginia's attorney general, will be the Republican standard-bearer in the Commonwealth's gubernatorial race in 2009. Off-year statewide elections are always looked to by the two parties as litmus tests for how each side is doing, and the fact that this campaign will take place in the purple state of Virginia makes McDonnell all the more important. If he wins, it will be seen as a sign that the Republican party is alive and well and living in Virginia. If he loses, he'll join the Jerry Kilgore Hall of Fame.
This hinges on a lot of things. First of all, the McDonnell campaign must adapt to the new math of Virginia. What has happened statewide since 2001 is Republicans believing that Virginia is a Republican state. Folks, its just not. Its a 48-48 state, with 2% up for grabs, and the McDonnell campaign needs to operate with the 2008 math, not the 2000 math. We are the underdog and we need to build a brand new organization from the ground up. That means in the next six months McDonnell needs to use his money and time to rebuild a brand new Republican organization. The old rules are off, so McDonnell needs to create new ones. I think that McDonnell has the skill and the team to make this happen. I have heard and seen assurances that they understand what they are up against.
The past elections have been a rewind of the previous. In both 1993 and 1997, our candidates had the pulse of the Commonwealth, and addressed those concerns by articulating conservative message that applied to those concerns. Its really not that hard. But in 2001, 2005, and again in 2006 our statewide candidates assumed they would win based on early polling and played prevent defense. When the hardworking Democrat candidates caught up to them, they panicked and made stupid and panicky decisions that lose us elections. There was never a full game plan, a beginning to end strategy that both Warner and Kaine had. It was hang on for dear life until we cross the finish line. Luckily, McDonnell has the pleasure of having those campaigns to look back on.
Find a clear message that resonates and hammer away. McDonnell has six months to find and hone it.
But its not totally on him. We as activists at the grassroots level must help him. We too have gotten a bit spoiled, waiting around for a certain candidate just to our liking to emerge or we won't do much. But McDonnell is our guy now, and its up to the activists to get out and work for him.
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