Brownlee and Kilgore, Old Virginia Rises Again

I've been running around all week and I wanted to take special time to go over something that came to mind the second I read that Jerry Kilgore endorsed John Brownlee.  Suddenly I was warped back to 2005 when the Republican Party didn't care about Northern Virginia, where we insisted that if we can just hold on and max out the rest of the state, we win.  It was the old math, the math of 1993 and 1997, completely ignorant of the shifting demographics of Northern Virginia and the issues that move it.

There has always been a grudge held against Northern Virginia within the Republican Party.  We whine too much about Transportation, we whine too much about not getting all our money back, we whine that we aren't paid attention too.  Besides, why bother helping an area that has turned so blue.  I have dealt with these attitudes in person, and they exist in the conservative enclaves in southwest and southside Virginia.  The Old Virginia that Jerry Kilgore came out of, that John Brownlee is now coming out of, is the epicenter.  Its the part of Virginia that still thinks Republicans can win without Northern Virginia.  Its the part of Virginia that in many ways have yet to grasp how important Northern Virginia is, and fail to understand it.  The Republican activists in Northern Virginia, the folks in unit committees and YR clubs are often some of the most conservative in the state, while many others are acolytes of the Tom Davis school of moderation.  But if your a conservative activist or a Davis moderate in Northern Virginia, you have still always been an outsider in the state party, regardless of ideology.  Let me elaborate.

Since 1993, Northern Virginia has been represented exactly once on the statewide ticket, and that was Michael Ferris for lieutenant governor in 1993.  Allen (Charlottesville), Gilmore (Richmond suburbs), Hager (Richmond), Earley (Hampton Roads), Kilgore (Southwest), Bolling (Richmond suburbs), and McDonnell (Virginia Beach).  In the General Assembly, there is exactly one Northern Virginia delegate with committee power, and that is Dave Albo.  We lost so many seats in Northern Virginia in both the House and Senate because so many of our electeds were so powerless in Richmond because the party leaders either didn't understand or didn't care about the problems facing us.  It left our delegation out on their own, and with the shifting demographics good Republicans like Jay O'Brien get beat by people who have no business beating them.  That, my friends, is the core problem facing our party.  Do we stand with Old Virginia or help forge a New Virginia where the Republican Party is active in promoting Northern Virginia, and using its principles to help solve the area's problems.  

Jerry Kilgore was the epitome of that school of Virginia Republicanism.  In many ways, its rooted in the old conservatism of Harry Byrd, a state built on pay-as-you-go and rural votes (among other things).  Kilgore was the first Republican gubernatorial candidate to run in New Virignia, where Northern Virginia had fully transformed for traditional conservative suburbs to a more left-leaning enclave dominated by traffic woes, national moods, government workers, new Asian, Hispanic, and Indian immigrants, and IT workers with masters degrees from all over the country.  Jerry Kilgore's old Virginia Republicanism still thought it was 1993, where death penalty ads could move votes.  

John Brownlee is simply an extension of Old Virginia, the same rural conservatism that has drowned this party.  There is no place for Northern Virginia in Old Virginia, we are just a bunch of liberals up here anyways.  And sure they'll give lip service to us, but how much effort will they really put in?  Its clear to me that if Brownlee wins the nomination, his only chance of victory is on the McDonnell-Bolling coattails.  What the Republican Party of Virginia needs to be doing is showing the state that our principles can fix the problems of Northern Virginia.  The problems have been that Old Virginia hasn't even bothered to figure out what the problems of Northern Virginia are and have spent even less time trying to solve them.  We can't afford to fall backwards.  I have a good feeling that both Bob McDonnell and Bill Bolling have come to understand that because they almost dragged down by Kilgore's monumental mistakes.  

One of the reasons I am such a supporter of Ken Cuccinelli is because in many ways, he is the only New Virginia conservative in the state.  He is as conservative, in fact moreso than any southside/soutwest rural senator or delegate.  But he gets how the state has changed, and has carefully built an organization carefully put together election after election to reflect that change.  He gets that people care about potholes more than abortion on a local level, and if we can apply conservatism to help fix those potholes, that traffic, and schools we can win again.  We just have to take the time to figure out what the problems are and how to fix them.  Its not hard.  

When Kilgore endorsed Brownlee, it further exposed to me just what a giant step backwards this party will take again if Brownlee is nominated.  It will be one more time Old Virginia will get its way and push Northern Virginia back to the kids table where they think it belongs.  We will continue to fall further behind in this state, and Democrats will continue to win over and over.  When this party decides to really contest Northern Virginia, we will come back.  And as a resident of Northern Virginia, we need strong Republicans.  Total Democrat control has led to a a $650 million deficit in Fairfax County alone, but the Democrats under Mark Warner have captured the trust of the voters like it or not.  And they have done it by building a base in Northern Virginia base on national political attitudes.  But locally they have nearly bankrupted our local governments.  We don't have a strong enough party right now to exploit this because so much of our political leadership has no clue about what is going on up here and how to exploit it.  

Ken Cuccinelli is more than just a conservative to me, he's the first in what could be a long line of Northern Virginia Republicans to take back this party.  I'm telling you right now, the more NOVA Republicans that rise in this party, the more elections we will win.  Because when we start electing local Republicans (like John Cook, Corey Stewart, Pat Herrity) we will prove our way is the right way and that trust will flow upward.  But we need the state party behind us, our state elected leadership to believe in a strategy that includes Northern Virginia.  Ken has shown he can win as a conservative by not taking this area for granted, by working it twice as hard as anyone else, and above all believing that Republicans can win in Northern Virginia.  He's proof of it.  We need Ken in a position of leadership in this party to fight for Northern Virginia in RPV, to help build a New Virginia where the Republican Party doesn't pray to just get 43% of Northern Virginia, but to compete and win at every level.  Old Virginia Republicanism of Kilgore and Brownlee dive bomb Northern Virginia banking on old ideas for a bygone era that don't work anymore.  

History will repeat itself if we allow Brownlee, Kilgore, and the other Old Virginia Republicans who don't see where the state's politics is headed (north) to continue to elbow out Northern Virginia, the continue to ignore and even insult the largest and most important part of the state.  We need Ken Cuccinelli on this ticket to help find voters nobody else has found, and more importantly to prove to Northern Virginia that the Republican Party is there to fight for their vote.  To say we will keep taxes low, we will fix traffic, we won't put individual counties is more debt than many states, and we will do this with our principles.  

Our choice at the Convention is, as Republicans, do we stay in stale comfortable Old Virginia where we get to pound our chests at how conservative we are but continue to lose; or do we build a New Virginia defined by the party truly willing to fight for every inch of the Commonwealth based on solving all of the states problems with our solutions.  

Comments

[James]

Chris: I think you forgot one important thing: BROWNLEE IS FROM NORTHERN VIRGINIA. According to his website, John Brownlee graduated from Robinson High School in Fairfax County, was stationed at Ft. Myer (Arlington) while he was in the Army, and was a local prosecutor in DC (again living in Arlington) before he was appointed US Attorney. The beauty of Brownlee is that he will be very attractive to NOVA voters, but he can also bring in tons of voters from the west and south. Brownlee is the furthest thing from Old Virginia politics. This guy is the perfect candidate who has the necessary credentials to win and will appeal to all Virginians. Think about it: Brownlee is the only prosecutor and veteran running. He has strong ties to NOVA and the western part of Virginia. He will also appeal to Va. Beach voters b/c he is a veteran. I like Ken and under normal circumstances would support him. But Brownlee is too good of a candidate to pass on. I am supporting the prosecutor/veteran for AG.

[200 Grande]

Brownlee has never run for anything in NOVA and cannot be relied on to passively attract voters by the mere virtue of his bio.

Chris, this is one of the most well-written statements on the current political dynamic amongst Republicans in the state of Virginia. In particular, the tension over issues facing ROVA and NOVA (and to an extent, areas such as Hampton Roads and Chesapeake).

True unity will come to the Republican Party in this state by running candidates that understand that the application of our principles solve problems for all of Virginia, regardless of region.

You make a good case for Cuccinelli in this context (which I also subscribe to), although I hope the Republican anti-Cuccinelli crowd do not use this as an excuse to ignore the rest of your analysis. I appreciate that James appears to take your analysis into account even when advocating for Brownlee.

I think McDonnell and Bolling understand this, too; but I still find them a bit too defensive, in posture. Nevertheless, there's plenty of time, and this campaign hasn't even started.

[Chris]

Saying Brownlee can win NOVA because he went to Robinson is like saying I can win in Rhode Island because I went to Portsmouth Abbey. Its ridiculous. Brownlee has never been an organizer, someone who moves votes.

He is typical of Old Virginia Republicanism, trying to find some meaningless "in" with the voters here in an attempt to "connect" with us. But he doesn't live here, he doesn't know what moves votes here, he'll just be a coattail, a drag at the bottom. He campaigns on meaningless conservative platitudes, having nothing in his background to suggest he means or can accomplish any of it.

Lets go with the real deal, the guy that will change the state GOP and make us relevant again.

[Spank That Donkey]

Chris:
Excellent Post! Cuccinelli was at our Staunton/Augusta/Waynesboro (SAW) breakfast this morning, and I was completely impressed by him.

What struck me the most was that he votes the same way that he campaigns...

Brownlee is a Kilgore type candidate. You can see it from where his donations are coming from. I supported Brownlee at first, but I am firmly in Cuccinelli's camp now.

I want to also thank our 'buddy' Loudoun Insider for helping me make up my mind...

[Steven Osborne]

Chris,

I am also a Cuccinelli supporter, however, I was disappointed in your dismissal of Southwest Virginia. The Southwest, Southside, and Central portions of Virginia will likely play a big part in a Cuccinelli victory. I feel like there are many residents in ROVA that are undecided and railing against "Old Virginia" is not the way to win. I am from the Central/Southside area and I am a Cuccinelli supporter as well as a student and really don't like being called old.

We do need Cuccinelli in the AG's office. He is a leader with integrity.

[Britt Howard]

Chris, I'm a big fan of Ken Cuccinelli despite being from that other big area to the far southeast. I traveled across the Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel to attend a Cuccinelli fund raiser in Newport News. Unfortunately, I couldn't make the one closer to home featuring Mike Huckabee.

I empathize to a degree. Hampton Roads also has to fight to get its share of revenue. I see the whole regional transportation taxing authorities fiasco as an attempt to force us to pay for our roads with our money and not get the general funding WE send to the state back for road building.

Still, you don't alleviate your isolation by talking that way about your neighbors.

You have a great candidate there in Cuccinelli. He has my support.

[novamiddleman]

I respect that Cuccinelli is a strong conservative. Here is the thing all of these strong conservatives are voting no matter what. So, whether it is Brownlee or Cuccinelli you get the same amount of votes.

Cuccinelli is also very polarizing. He will generate the grassroots but he also generates the opposition grassroots just as much if not more so. You also have to remember that Shannon is right here in our backyard and unlike Olysek Shannon actually has brains.

Foster is the guy that will actually unlock more votes.

Then again I am a Davis Acolyte :-p.