So How's That Drag On The Ticket Doing?

The first big post-convention/primary poll has come out, and low and behold the entire ticket is six to seven points up on the Dem rivals.  But wait . . . I thought Ken Cuccinelli was suppose to be a drag on the ticket, I thought he couldn't beat Steve Shannon?

What this poll shows me is that Republicans up and down Virginia are incredibly unified, and that the strength of the ticket is that it constitutes the spectrum of Virginia Republicans.  And don't forget, no state has turned ticket-splitting into the artful that Virginia has, especially when it comes to electing Republicans.  Democrats have swept all three offices three times ('81, '85, '89), but the Republicans have only done it once ('97) in the post-Byrd era.  Routinely you'll see at least one holdout make like Andrew Miller in '77 and Jerry Kilgore in '01.  So what this shows me is that Republicans in Virginia are, for the first time in a loooooong time, very unified behind this ticket.

As for the Dems, they have amassed a very strange ticket that has no coherency.  Deeds is a rural state senator who's claim to fame seems to be that he's a "conservative" Democrat, but that doesn't jive very well with the increasingly progressive turn of Democrats both in Virginia and nationally.  And you can't out conservative this GOP ticket, I'm sorry.  Wagner has nothing positive in her background, unless you count massively underestimating the state debt and consistently proving useless when it came to finance, gaining the nomination because nobody else of substance would run.  As for Shannon, he's in the strange place of trying to prove he's more law-and-order than Cuccinelli, and has a thin record of any accomplishment.  Democrats have been winning in the 2000s by a combination of anti-Bushism, a perception of being conservative, and the GOP warring within itself.  This year Bush is gone, these guys can't get tot he right of our ticket on anything, and clearly the GOP is unified behind its ticket.  

I also wonder if there is something of an enthusiasm gap.  My theory on winning elections is that its based on energy, what kind of energy is created by the base and by supporters.  I believe that independent voters generally, in the end, want to be on the winning side and tend to swing towards the side with the most enthusiasm, organization, and energy.  Our team has that right now on all ends of the GOP spectrum.  Nothing about Deeds, Wagner, or Shannon seems to be exciting any Democrat but the most committed.  I don't see either of these three inspiring voters to sway their way.  All three are bland, unaccomplished, and have no base outside of their elected districts - there is nothing ideologically that seems to link the three the way it does on our side.  All three of our candidates have statewide organizational experience (McD and Bolling in '05, and Cuccinelli w/ the marriage amendment '06).  

That being said, its still only a six point lead and none of the GOP team are over 50% so anything can sway this election.  McDonnell has done a good job so far running a structured, disciplined message . . . he clearly understands why Earley and Kilgore failed.  Though "a jobs governor" might sound kind of hokey, its effective because it makes it easy for people to understand what he wants and what he stands for.  He's defining himself before he gets defined.  Four months out, we are where we want to be and its up to these three guys to really stay dialed in, work hard and get the message out.  

Comments

[john]

As the race continues you will find Cook will be a huge "drag-line-sink"

[Dan]

Clearly what is needed is for Sarah Palin to come to Virginia and campaign vigorously for the Republican ticket. She needs to be here from the time she steps down later this month right through election day.

I urge everyone reading this to contact McDonell, Bolling and Cuccinelli and press them to get Sarah to Virginia as soon as possible and as often as possible.

Contact RPV and your local party too. We need her at every event and on every TV screen and in every newspaper in the Commonwealth.

You want energy? Sarah will energize the base.

She is the key to victory in 2009.

[Bruce]

Dan - I sense some sarcasm. But I imagine if you polled the popularity of Gov. Palin in the commonwealth her favorables would exceed those of all six statewide candidates.

[Dan]

Bruce,

If you are right about that, then Republicans should be anxious to take my advice and get her to Virginia pronto. Maximum exposure of Palin to the Virginia electorate through election day should be the first order of business.

Although she clearly is wildly popular with a small segment of the general electorate, I doubt you are correct about her favorable rating being higher than all six of the statewide Virginia candidates. And I'd bet dollars to donuts that her unfavorable rating is higher than any of the six among all voters.

If you are counting on an incredibly small turnout election where the whole ball game is turning out your base voters, then Palin actually could help you. With anything like a normal turnout the damage she would do with middle of the road, non-ideological voters far outweighs her benefit.

Since McDonnell has his hard right, social conservative, Pat Robertson baggage locked away in the attic for this campaign and is wearing his brand new "I am really a moderate" suit instead I wouldn't expect to see him ask Palin to come to Virginia. In fact, I'd expect him to avoid her like the plague.

I notice New Jersey Republicans are no more anxious to have Palin's "help" than Virginia Republicans are.

[PWConservative]

Dan

McDonnell told the Post that He wants Her to come campaign for Him.

[Dan]

PWConservative,

I find that fascinating. Since McDonnell is not a stupid man, my guess is that that public statement does not mirror what he is saying privately.

He certainly can't say publicly that he doesn't want her here. That would alienate the slice of the electorate who thinks she is the greatest thing since sliced bread. But he also doesn't want her marching around Virginia torpedoing his chance to win the election.

You are not going to see the McDonnell campaign trying to bring her here. On the contrary, I imagine they will quietly and strongly resist any attempt to bring her to Virginia this year.

They want to win.

[Mickey Deez]

PWConservative, have McDonnell and Palin been promoted to god and goddess, or is it just capitalization for emphasis in your post?

I think Palin might help the rah-rah Republican base get their rah-rah on, but who are they gonna vote for if not McDonnell anyway? Every vote counts.

Most of us are independents who lean one way. I lean Republican, but will vote for Democrats who are reasonable. I view Palin as a bit dull and O don't think she's a help. She wouldn't affect my opinion of McDonnell. I'd figure if he had her around, it was to get the Republican rah-rah on. Besides, I already know that he is not a dullard. He was a fine attorney general and deserving of my support. Even if he parades around with the likes of Palin, Allen, and other Republicans I don't necessarily respect too much.