UFC 100 FULL Preview

This is it, the big one.  UFC 100, the century mark show for the UFC has been hyped for months now and boasts a stacked line-up of can't-miss fights between some of the sports biggest stars in fights that mean a lot for the present and the future.  It also features two of the sports biggest names:  Brock Lesnar and Georges St-Pierre.  There are good and interesting fights up and down the card, but its dominated by three main event fights: the heavyweight rematch unifying the titles between Lesnar and Frank Mir; a welterweight fight between champ St-Pierre and challenger Thiago "Pitbull" Alves; and a middleweight contenders battle between TUF season 9 coaches Dan Henderson and Michael Bisping.

MAIN CARD:

Heavyweight Title Unification:  Brock Lesnar (c) vs. Frank Mir (i-c)

Welterweight Title:  Georges St-Pierre (c) vs. Thiago "Pitbull" Alves

Middleweight:  Michael "The Count" Bisping vs. Dan "Hendo" Henderson

Middleweight:  Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Alan "The Talent" Belcher

Welterweight:  Jon Fitch vs. Paulo Thiago

PRELIM CARD:

Light Heavyweight:  Mark "The Hammer" Coleman vs. Stephan Bonnar

Lightweight:  Mac Danzig vs. Jim Miller

Light Heavyweight:  Jon "Bones" Jones vs. "Irish" Jake O'Brien

Welterweight:  Dong Hyun "Stun Gun" Kim vs. TJ Grant

Middleweight:  DB Dolloway vs. Tom Lawlor

Lightweight:  Matt Grice vs. Shannon Gugerty

Three Stories For Three Fights:

1.  Lesnar vs. Mir II:  The First True UFC Heavyweight Superfight

There has been a lot of s-talking between the UFC's dual heavyweight champions, Brock Lesnar and Frank Mir.  This whole heat between the two stems from Mir's anger at Lesnar getting a title shot with a 2-1 MMA record and after he had beaten him.  The heavyweight title was held for a long time by Randy Couture who had left the company in a dispute while champion.  Unwilling to strip Couture of his title in the hopes of getting him back, the UFC created an interim title (which they have done before) which Minotauro Nogiuera won over Tim Sylvia the same night Frank Mir tapped out Lesnar.  Mir was named the #1 contender and the UFC centered season 8 of The Ultimate Fighter around Mir and Noguiera.  But between the taping and airing of the show two things happened - Brock Lesnar destroyed legitimate contender Heath Herring and Randy Couture came back.  Not only did Lesnar steamroll Herring, he popped a huge pay per view buy for the UFC.  So with Mir and Noguiera tied up and a weak HW division the UFC decided to match the superhero Couture against the massive Lesnar.  And Lesnar won.  Then a month later, Frank Mir shocked the world and annihilated Nogiuera to take the interim strap.  

For me, a lot of Mir's trash about Lesnar has been annoying.  Its one thing to mock his skills, thats fair game.  But Mir has talked about Lesnar not deserving the title shot even though he got one based on his win over Brock!  And he says that Brock was in MMA only for the money and has no real appreciation for the art . . . nevermind the fact that Lesnar literally walked away form millions of dollars when he walked out on WWE.  For me, Mir has sapped a lot of the goodwill he got from his win last December by the way he has acted in the run-up to this fight.  But Brock Lesnar is a hard guy to like.  Mir is articulate, technical, and smart.  Lesnar is athletic, powerful, and sullen.  They couldn't be more different in both style and personality.  Lesnar is a smasher, a modern version of Mark Kerr but who's past wrestling superstardom has opened doors faster than most fighters - he's gotten bigger fights and paid more faster than most.  But he's also worked incredibly hard to further his career.  Mir has strugged to find his way in a game he's a natural for.  He skilled BJJ fighter, he so often in the past refused to train hard and instead relied on one submission and perhaps a lucky punch.  It led him to the UFC title in 2004, but a motorcycle accident and broken leg ended that.  He struggled to come back, and surely resents how easy Lesnar has had it.  Mir was a gifted fighter who has found his heart, and Lesnar is a moody outsider who is trying to find MMA skills to catch up to his natural gift of size, power, and wrestling.  

This fight will be won or lost in the stand up.  Both men have fight ending skills on the ground - Lesnar by powerful ground n' pound and Mir by some of the best submissions in the game.  Lesnar's power doesn't seem normal, he sent Heath Herring ass-over-head backwards with a broken orbital bone in the first punch in their fight.  Mir broke Tim Sylvia's arm to win the UFC Title five years ago . . . I repeat . . . he broke it.  He took the arm home.  So for me, its about who gets to the ground on their terms.  Will it be Lesnar's bonecrushing power and reach, or Mir's technical skill and boxing.  If Lesnar wins he will be an unquestioned top 2 heavyweight after beating Herring, Couture, and Mir.  If Mir wins, he gets the same distinction.  Two fighters with two contrasting styles at the top of their games.  It gets no better.

2.  GSP:  The Best Ever?

Georges St-Pierre is on a mission, and there are very few in sports on the plain he is on.  For GSP its not about being champion anymore, its about being the greatest ever in his sport.  We don't get to see that alot in sports . . . Tiger Woods, Michael Jordan come to mind.  GSP is on that same path in his sport.  After getting his title back he's torn through the durable Jon Fitch and the talented BJ Penn, both top ten fighters.  Thiago Alves presents serious problems, a vicious striker who's as bigger or even bigger than St-Pierre, St-Pierre will not have the size and strength he used to obliterate Penn.  What Alves has more than anything are leg kicks that are the most devestating in the game, and he's a flurry away from putting you away.  But this fight somewhat reminds me of Lyoto Machid and Thiago Silva.  Silva is a slugger, a talented fighter who rushes forward over and mover, but Machida was the smarter fighter with the most complete skill-set.  I do not believe Alves has the tools.  He catch GSP sure, but St-Pierre is so good he knows how not to get hit, and how to style a game plan specifically for his opponent.  Alves is good, damn good.  So was Fitch.  But this is his first jump to the big time, and I don't think he has any idea what's coming.  And GSP has more on his mind . . . if he wins here it will have effectively cleared out a weak welterweight division and he gets to set his sights on a bigger honor and one that fans have been buzzing or - Georges St-Pierre vs. Anderson Silva.

3.  Bisping's Chance

A lot has been invested in Michael "The Count" Bisping since he won The Ultimate Fighter season 3.  As one of the few British MMA fighters and its only true star, Bisping has had to carry the sport for an entire country.  And the UFC has been behind much of this, making Bisping the face of their UK extension with him headline two fight cards overseas and made head coach of an entire team of British fighters on TUF 9.  His Wolfslair MMA camp is so strong it attracted Rampage Jackson to join.  He was just a little too small for the light heavyweight division and dropped down to middleweight after a razor-thin win against Matt Hamill and razor-thin loss to Rashad Evans.  At 18-1, Bisping is probbaly the least respected fighter with that record.  Much of that is because Bisping has never taken on a proven top-5 fighter in his weight class.  This is his chance.  Dan Henderson has been there and done that, has a great wrestling background and a powerful right hand.  But he's also 39 and at the end of his career while Bisping seems to be cresting to the top.  I am not as impressed by Henderson as others and think his game is a bit outdated and I think he did lose his fight against Rich Franklin.  The Franklin fight should be Bisping's blueprint as Henderson was dominated in the first round by dynamic striking, movement, and angles.  Bisping can do that and had done that.  He just cannot let Hendo take him down, something I'm sure he's worked hard on.  I think this will be Bisping's coming out party and Dana White has dangled the prize for Bisping if he wins, a title shot against Anderson Silva at UFC 104 in Manchester, England.  

My predictions below the fold

LESNAR

ST-PIERRE

BISPING (upset special)

AKIYAMA

FITCH

BONNAR

DANZIG

JONES

KIM

DOLLAWAY

GUGERTY

Comments

[Steve]

Hey Chris, any advice on where to watch this in the Falls Church/Fairfax area? I don't have cable or satellite so if you know of a sports bar or public venue that would be great!

[Chris]

I think McGreevy's shows it, and so does whatever is at Fair Oaks mall.

[A.G.Gilmore]

Good call on the Lesnar/Mir fight. I was expecting more out of Mir.

I was also happy to see that Henderson defeated Bisping

[Chris]

I'm actually pretty upset with Hendo throwing that forearm on a prone Bisping, admitting that he knew he was out cold. He could have really really hurt Bisping, and for what? So Bisping ran his mouth? He was trying to sell a fight to make both of them more money. What Henderson did was really dangerous, and he should be punished in some way.

[A.G.Gilmore]

That's probably true. Fair point.

I also didn't like Lesnar's post fight rant. I understand he's an intense guy who does things his own way, but there's also something about winning like a champion. Having the belt doesn't say everything about a fighter.

I was also ecstatic to hear that Dana was WILL sign Fedor. Lesnar v. Fedor will be the biggest fight in MMA history combined.

[A.G.Gilmore]

that' last sentence didn't make sense.
Lesnar v. Fedor will be the biggest fight in MMA history bar none.*