Jim Geraghty Explains PPP Poll

The PPP poll has the race much closer than the SurveyUSA poll.  Well, sort off.  Instead of me trying to ramble through it, allow me to allow NRO's Jim Geraghty to explain what Deeds needs to do in the PPP poll to win.

So All Deeds Needs to Do Is Outpace Obama's Get-Out-the-Vote Effort

Good news, sort of, for Creigh Deeds. As long as the voter turnout on Election Day is 37 percent Democrat, 29 percent Republican, and 34 percent independent, as in PublicPolicyPolling's latest, he'll only lose by 5 percentage points.

PPP shows McDonnell leading among independents by a mere 16 percentage point margin.

For comparison, on Election Day 2008, the presidential year with enthusiasm for Obama driving Democratic turnout, the party ID split was 39 percent Democrat, 33 percent Republican, and 27 percent independent in CNN's exit poll.