Deeds's Dilemma

I was taken aback by the Dopiest "profile" of Creigh Deeds in the Sunday paper.  It was devastating and continued to show the szchitzophrenic nature of the Post, where all stories not written by Amy Gardner seem fair and even harder on Deeds, while the Gardner pieces look like they were written by Joe Abbey.  What it effectively shows is that Deeds is "a work in progress," which apparently in Deeds country means you bring people together.  What it tells me, along with most people who can think and wants an active and articulate governor, is that he has no idea what he's doing.  

Creigh Deeds was stammering, as is often his way when trying to explain a change in one of his political positions. He indicated that he felt conflicted over a stance, not the first time during his campaign for Virginia governor. "I'm not certain I would do that again," he said. 

He was referring to a vote he cast three years earlier to place a state constitutional amendment on the ballot prohibiting gay people from marrying or entering into civil unions. Within weeks, seemingly in an about-face, Deeds said he would not support the amendment. Now, a tentative Deeds sat in a Washington conference room, still not quite sure where he stood. "My thoughts have evolved in a lot of respects," he said, noting that his evolution had carried him to the point where he had doubts that "government ought to be involved" in same-sex marriage. 

There is a central problem with Deeds' candidacy for governor that no matter of slime they throw at Bob McDonnell can cover up.  Its been said over and over on this blog, but this profile shows it over and over.  Creigh Deeds is a product and a representation of Old Virginia and he has very little understand of New Virginia, of the middle-to-upper class suburban voters who know nothing of Harry Byrd, Blackie Moore, Willis Robertson and the various ghosts of Old Virginia's past.  As this profile shows, Deeds is a product of this, of the old Courthouse rings, of the Old Virginia that was famously - and accurately - described by V.O. Key as a "Museum of Democracy."  

Deeds's quest for his current state senate seat is a reflection of this problem, as he had to grovel before New Virginia to gain acceptance, and acceptance he has never fully gotten.  If he had, perhaps he wouldn't be continually making out his poll numbers at 45%.  Remember, Old and New Virginia are as much about attitude, background, and how you present yourself as a modern candidate versus any political ideology.  Old and New Virginia politicians exist in both parties.  Democrats, most notably Mark Warner, understood this trend more than anyone else.  New Virginia is not about riding a horse, wearing boots, spitting tobacco, or twanging football references in your speech.  Its about the new suburban axis that runs from Tyson's Corner, through Hanover, down to Virginia Beach.  Its the suburbs, where voters of both parties don't come from Virginia, know nothing and care even less about the Old Dominion's old genial traditions.  For three straight statewide elections, Republicans nominated staunch Old Virginia politicians who understood little of the changes reflecting the commonwealth - Mark Earley was a son of evangelicals, Jerry Kilgore was a southwest Virginia product who understood nothing of the new changes, and George Allen arrogantly assumed his previous victories would ensure a second term and a presidential nomination while failing to realize that the state shifted under his feet in his six years in the US Seante.  

But back to Deeds.  The recent kerfuffle over Sheila Johnson making fun of the way Deeds spoke warranted an apology, but it also explains why so many residents of New Virginia - represented by Ms. Johnson - have turned their back on Deeds in favor of Bob McDonnell.  Whatever has been thrown at him, McDonnell is clearly a son of New Virginia - raised in suburban Fairfax County, taking on a professional and political life in Virginia Beach, and relocating to suburban Richmond as he assumed the full time duties as Attorney General.  Despite the slime thrown at him, McDonnell's political resume is that of New Virginia, continually working on budget, transportation, public safety, and education issues.  Deeds is a throwback, and not in a good way.  As much as Democrats want to corner McDonnell of the stuttering crack, it reminds voters that Deeds sounds funny, he sounds like he's not one of us, and he sounds like he has no idea what he's talking about.  Its like Jerry Kilgore, but with a D next to his name.  And it has little to nothing to do with an accent, its all about what he's saying and New Virginia can tell that Creigh Deeds isn't one of them.  He's not.  Listen to how he can't figure out what to say here:

McDonnell can answer that question in one sentence and there is no question where he stands.  Deeds might say this is a "work in progress" but with unemployment in parts of this state, especially in Deeds Country, reaching upwards to 20% Virginians have to have the confidence that the governor won't stammer his way through decided what to do to fix this.  Nothing about Deeds's campaign thus far has proven to anybody that he has any plan of what he's going to do about anything.  All he says is that "everything is on the table."  I've got news for you, Sen. Deeds, you can't leave these decisions up to the General Assembly, it will never get done.  The governor's job is to run on an agenda, get elected, and the use your mandate to put forward that agenda.  Deeds, the work in progress, is agenda-less because he doesn't understand the issues of New Virginia, and he's even more confused about what to do about it.  

There is a reason why a lot of interests and individuals who backed Warner, Kaine, Webb, and Obama are backing Bob McDonnell.  Because for Virginia, Creigh Deeds represents the old ways.  McDonnell does not.  

Comments

[Voltaire Cortez]

You're wrong in so many ways it's not even funny.

Pundits from across the Political spectrum have attributed McDonnell's advantage over Deeds as a natural backlash against Barack Obama (and conversely Corzine's comeback as attributed to Obama's fairly stable popularity in New Jersey).

Now if what you say is true, that Deeds represents Old Virginia and McDonnell new, then how do you explain this backlash? New Virginia is the Virginia that voted for a black Democrat to go to the White House. And if Virginia is now permanently this new and improved Virginia, then it should stand to reason that Obama should still have massive ammounts of support in the commonwealth, and with that, massive amounts of support for Deeds.

But that's not the case at all. The backlash against the President (and thus against anyone with a D in front of their name) is coming from "old" Virginia. And these people continue to tell pollsters that Bob McDonnell is the better alternative to Obama and Deeds.

So your argument falls apart in two ways:

1) Virginia has not made the complete transition into this so called "new" Virginia.

And,

2) Creigh Deeds is losing not because New Virginia has completely shut him out, but because Old Virginia hates the president (and thus Democrats) that much.