Top Ten Winners of 2009

Like everyone else, I’m going to give my diagnosis for what happened this week in the form of a top ten list.  I’ll start with the top ten winners, and tomorrow I’ll post the top ten losers.  Enjoy!

1.  Bob McDonnell.  I know, I know, out on limb I'm going with this one.  But remember there were serious challenges ahead for him when he kicked this deal off last February.  I remember standing at the victory party in 2008 (so to speak) and wondering aloud to some friends if Bob McDonnell had the stones to fight this race given the shellacking we had just taken.  There was the whole Jeff Frederick-RPV soap opera, there was a potentially divisive Attorney General's battle, and the Democrats were looking more and more like a self-financed Terry McAuliffe would swoop in.  But Team McDonnell went by the old adage K.I.S.S:  Keep It Simple Stupid.  And they did.  McDonnell deserves every accolade showered upon him now for in 12 months turning the party from its worst beating since Albertis Harrison was governor to a victory unlike any we have ever seen here.  The scope of this victory, the context of halting Virginia's record of turning blue over the last decade, and McDonnell's mechanical and professional campaign has turned him into a national figure.

2.  Republican Party of Virginia.  Ever since I've been active, every campaign has told me that you can't rely on RPV for anything.  Not money, not good voter lists, not good lit, nothing.  We had also bounced around from drama to drama - the eavesdropping scandal, Kate Obenshain, Ed Gillespie bailing mid-battle, and the Hager-Frederick battle.  Coming into this year, the Frederick saga had a potential to turn the RPV from inefficient to something that could really drag the entire ticket down.  I didn't like what happened to Jeff, I felt from the beginning he was set up to fail, but this had to be done.  Instead of the drama, we got a remarkable combination of Pat Mullins and Tim Murtaugh putting together great press releases, doing outstanding research, media outreach, new media innovations, funny and cutting web ads, and generally becoming an offensive force in this election instead of a liability.  The RPV turned into some of the strongest glue that held this whole thing together.

3.  Ken Cuccinelli.  There were forces at work around Ken from both parties that were looking to drop him.  Unlike his ticket mates, Cuccinelli faced a vigorous challenge from former US Attorney John Brownlee and Arlington lawyer Dave Foster.  The Brownlee campaign, recruited by many McDonnell supporters because they worried about Cuccinelli being a drag on the ticket, was the most direct threat.  But how Cuccinelli overcame that explains a lot in how large a margin the entire GOP victory was.  McDonnell deserves enormous credit for wining independents and even Democrats, but Cuccinelli's campaign awakened a sleeping giant of tea party activists, values voters, and other conservative voting blocs that had supported George W. Bush in 2004 but don't always get out and vote.  The unwritten and under-appreciated story of 2009 is how important Ken Cuccinelli was to Bob McDonnell's election.  He covered Bob's right flank, these voters are so devoted to Cuccinelli that they were coming out, which allowed McDonnell to count on their votes without having to overreach to get them, potentially damaging his standing among the independents.  Cuccinelli freed McDonnell to pursue his strategy of courting the center, while in return all those independent voters that came out for McDonnell nearly all voted for Cuccinelli.  Between the two of them, it was a perfect political marriage.

4.  Bill Bolling.  This is the man that deserves as much credit as anyone else for what happened on Nov 3.  For three years there was legit tension within the Republican Party as to what was going to happen when Bill Bolling and Bob McDonnell squared off for the nomination.  It was a card contest to gage, and he very well could have beaten McDonnell in a convention.  But Bolling seemed to sense something in the air, motivated by our poor performances he clearly understood that a nomination showdown could have destroyed the party before the election even happened.  By stepping aside and becoming a team, Bolling allowed McDonnell to spend upwards to five months working on messaging and branding their joint campaign while the Democrats ended up being the ones who committed political hari kari.  It was that time, where nobody was watching, the time Bolling gave McDonnell, were Bob was able to push his jobs profile, and defined himself before the Democrats got a chance too.  In many ways, this election was won in this winter and spring months where McDonnell effectively defined himself before anyone else could and it stuck.  For that, Bill Bolling was responsible.  Now Bolling is in the political drivers’ seat as he gets the right of first refusal for both a senate race in 2012 and the gubernatorial race in 2013.  Not bad.

5.  Jeanine McDonnell.  I think that the single most important person in helping Bob McDonnell overcome the thesis problem was his eldest daughter, Jeanine McDonnell.  Her life story and the way she was raised, and then her tour of duty in Iraq helped give living proof of what McDonnell’s views were towards women.  While the McDonnell of the thesis was a young man writing in theory, Jeanine McDonnell is proof of how McDonnell supports women, working women, and families in real life.  She was did what even a spouse could not, because she was raised by him as her father she was the embodiment of what Bob’s views on women are.  She was the single most effective weapon the McDonnell campaign had in beating back a potentially disastrous distraction, and it centered on the way McDonnell raised her and his support of her service in Iraq.  One can’t help but wonder if the political gene also hasn’t been passed down from father to daughter.

6.  Fairfax Republicans.  First and foremost, again let us praise the job done by county chairman Anthony Bedell.  I don’t think in any of our wildest dreams did we think that Bob McDonnell would carry Fairfax County, nor would Bolling and Cuccinelli garner 47% of the vote.  Bedell and county leaders like Tim Hugo, Pat Herrity, and Jay O’Brien help recruit candidates for nearly every delegate race, even in eastern Fairfax against entrenched incumbents we couldn’t hope to beat.  Instead of not running candidates in selected districts, triangulating and out-thinking ourselves based on polls and consultants like in 2007, the all-out assault strategy worked.  Jim LeMunyon and Barbara Comstock prevailed, while Jim Hyland and Kerry Bolognese came so agonizingly close to winning that they might have done enough to soften those districts up for pick-up in 2011.  For the first time in as long as I can remember, the entire county political structure worked together and did so seamlessly.  In the end, we sent a message that conservatives and Republicans can still win in Northern Virginia, we sent a message to Sens. Petersen, Barker, and Herring that hell’s coming for them, and we sent a message to Gerry Connolly that this district in play.

7.  Virginia Beach Republican.  The surest sign of the Republicans titanic collapse over the last decade is the ground we’ve lost in Virginia Beach and in the 2^nd district.  The election of Dels. Bobby Matheison, Joe Bouchard, State Sen. Ralph Northam, and Rep. Glen Nye over the last two years have exposed how weak the Republican brand has been in an area of the state we use to dominate.  Northern Virginia was always kind of tough sledding, but VA Beach was our town.  Last night, with hometown boy McDonnell leading the charge it appears we took back both of those seats with Chris Stolle and Ron Villanueva, Northam is in the cross-hairs, and Nye’s amateurish congressional career thus far looks to be in jeopardy by a resurgent local party and a governor from that town.     For Republicans to build a lasting and winning coalition, Hampton Roads and Virginia Beach needs to be one of the centerpieces.

8.  Tea Party Conservatism.  I’m not sure if this is the proper name for it but let me define what I mean.  This is the new conservatism that has risen up out of the ashes of George W. Bush’s failed compassionate conservatism.  It’s in response to Barack Obama’s radical progressivism of government takeover of banks, car companies, and now health care.  It’s a more intellectual conservatism, based on strict adherence to the Constitution, and a small government philosophy that is more libertarian than evangelical.  This is the movement Ken Cuccinelli is leading and they clearly came out to vote in 2009.  It’s a move away from some of the more social conservative aspects of the movement, but not totally.  It’s defined by guys like Glen Beck and Mark Levin, who are talking about government overreach, government takeover, and the loss of liberty.  It’s the folks waving the Gadsden Flag at the convention last June.  It’s fueled by opposition to Obama and his govern-by-fiat czar system where major decisions are made by people unelected and unaccountable.  Virginia is fertile ground for this movement and Tuesday showed if harnessed correctly in can elect a ticket. 

9.  Mark Keam and Luke Torian.  These two gentlemen took what could have been a disastrous night for Democrats and made it a little better.  Keam is a rising star, with deep connections through Dick Durbin and the White House he should be a man on the move in local politics.  Torian flipped a seat Democrats have been salivating over for a long time.  Both will still have to fend off stiff challenged in 2011 to solidify their positions, but they were two of the lone bright spots in Northern Virginia this year.  I expect, because of this, both will quickly be raised up the ranks with Assembly Democrats.

10.  NoVA Democrats.  WTF, you must be thinking?  Follow me here.  For some stupid reason, Democrats in Virginia for the first ran a ticket with no deep Fairfax connections.  I mean, yeah, Steve Shannon was there but he’s a backbencher unknown outside of Vienna.  Part of the reason McDonnell won Fairfax was there was nobody on the Dem ticket with deep political connections or who knew how to articulate the values that drive NoVA Dems.  That will never happen again.  Where its Gerry Connolly or Chap Petersen or Mark Herring, Democrats will make sure a major name from the area is at the top or near the top of the ticket.  The Deeds campaign ran a “I’m a rural old Virginia” campaign that was put to bed in 2001 and was a theme that was the exact opposite of what brought Warner, Kaine, Webb, and Obama into office.  Expect 2013 to be different, where again Democrats will blanket Northern Virginia   

Comments

[ProudBobFan]

Enough can't be said about #5 on your list. Throughout my door knocking efforts, I constantly heard people say that the main reason they are not buying the thesis attack was due to his daughter.

[Mark Keam]

I'd like to add my congratulations to Bob McDonnell, Bill Bolling, Ken Cuccinelli and to all the House candidates of both parties who won this week. As a Democrat, I also want to give credit where it's due -- to the Republican candidates, staff, volunteers and grassroots activists for the strong campaigns they ran and also for generating the energy and enthusiasm we saw in the recent weeks. As for your top ten list, I was surprised to see my name included! I certainly didn't expect it, and I'm not sure if I deserve to be on your list considering the circumstances of this week. But I do appreciate your generous words and for reaching out to include Democrats. Now that the campaigns are over, I'm looking forward to the upcoming legislative session and seeking ways we can all work together. Let's stay in touch, and again, thank you for reaching out to me! Mark Keam

[SE VA MWC Alum]

OVerall good analysis. McDonnell and Cuccinelli did "balance" the ticket in a way by making it attractive to both moderates and independents as well as the hard right base. Also on the Va Beach thing, agree with you on three of the four, the exception is Northam-Va Beach is a very small portion of his district and Northam is likely to remain strong in Norfolk and on the Eastern Shore.

On another note while I didnt vote for the three victors I would like to congratulate them and wish them well.

[Anne]

I'd add Patty Reed to your list in her own right. Although School Board is an independent gig, she was the Republicans' endorsed candidate in a Democratic stronghold. She ran a fine, very positive, very grassroots campaign. It was great to see that she had pulled off a victory.