MASON CONSERVATIVE

UFC 99: The Comeback Full Preview

Another European UFC show usually means a throwaway, but the company's first venture into Germany looks to be suprisingly solid with exciting fights that have real meaning.  They will have to work hard to follow up Strikeforce's last show, but especially the amazing WEC 41 from sunday that might have been the best show of the year so far.  This show his headlined by former UFC middleweight champion Rich "Ace" Franklin taking on "The Ax Murderer" Wanderlei Silva meeting a catchweight of 195 lbs as Franklin moves up to light heavyweight and Silva moves down to middleweight.  

Here is the full card:

MAIN CARD:

Catchweight (190lbs): Rich "Ace" Franklin vs. Wanderlei "The Ax Murderer" Silva

Heavyweight:  Cain Velasquez vs. Cheick Kongo

Heavyweight:  Mirko Cro Cop vs. Mustapha Al-Turk

Welterweight:  Mike "Quick" Swick vs. Ben Saunders

Lightweight:  Spencer "The King" Fisher vs. Caol Uno

Welterweight:  "The Irish Hand Grenade" Marcus Davis vs. "The Outlaw" Dan Hardy

PRELIM CARD:

Lightweight:  Terry Etim vs. Justin Buscholtz

Lightweight:  Denis Siver vs. Dale Hartt

Welterweight:  Paul Taylor vs. Peter Sabotta

Lightweight:  Paul Kelly vs. Roli Delgado

Heavyweight:  Denis Stojnic vs. Stefan "The Skyscraper" Struve

Welterweight:  John "The Hitman" Hathaway vs. Rick Story

Three themes to watch for:

1.  Rich Franklin:  Nothing to Gain, Everything to Lose

I scratched my head when I first head about this match-up.  As a fight, its great.  Both are aggressive strikers, both are former champions, and both never have boring fights.  But for Rich Franklin, he's been like a fighter without a country.  The once dominate middleweight was thoroughly dominated by Anderson Silva twice in losing his title.  He can't beat him.  The problem is that Franklin can beat every other middleweight in the UFC, so they asked him to move up to light heavyweight where he started his career.  They matched him with Dan Henderson with the winner coaching the Ultimate Fighter . . . but Franklin didn't want to do that, because that would mean fighting Michael Bisping at middleweight.  But with this fight with Silva, there is no end game here.  If he beats Silva, he beats a guy who's lost three out of his last four fights.  If he loses, he just lost to a guy who's 1-3 in the UFC.  Franklin has also had a problem with the big fight.  Of his four career loses they were to Anderson Silva (twice), Dan Henderson, and Lyoto Machida.  These are all elite fighters, and Franklin lost to all of them.  His wins were over great fighters, but not elite ones.  Can he overcome that to defeat a legend in the Ax Murderer?  He should win, he is the more complete fighter over all, but . . .Right now, Franklin is sort of the lost man in the UFC, so I guess all he can do is go out and win.

2.  Wanderlei Silva vs. Anderson Silva, The Real Main Event

Despite being destroyed twice, Rich Franklin has become close friends with Anderson Silva - the middleweight champion.  So much so that Anderson and Franklin spent eight days training in LA together for this, much to the anger of Wanderlei.  See, the two Silvas were training partners years ago in Chute Box in Brazil, and these Brazilian fighters are very sensitive about loyalty - there is a strong strain of Brazilian rivalry and even hatred through all of MMA.  Suddenly, all the talk has been about Wanderlei and Anderson - with Dana White pretty much saying that if Wanderlei wins, he gets a shot at Silva because he beat Rich Franklin.  Normally, this would be crazy because there are hard working middleweights who are making their way up (Maia, Bisping, Marquardt, Henderson, Okami, Cote) who might have a problem with this.  But from the UFC's perspective, they are losing big time on Anderson Silva because he has been so dominate his last two fights have been complete bombs since his opponents won't engage him.  Throwing him in with Wanderlei Silva would not only sell tickets based on their feud, but would also give Anderson Silva what the UFC wants, a fighter who will charge in and engage.  If Silva wins, this fight could sell some big business.

3.  The Kongo Gamble

Chieck Kongo is probably already the number one contender for the UFC heavyweight tile once Frank Mir and Brock Lesnar finish their feud at UFC 100 and settle who is the undisputed champion.  He's won three straight in a dominate fashion and holds a marquee win over Mirko Cro Cop.  He hasn't only won, he's been dominate.  This fight was suppose to be Velasquez against Heath Herring as a showcase for the young Velasquez - but with Kongo taking the fight on such short notice this suddenly is a very important contender's match.  If Kongo wins, I'm not sure he can be denied a title shot.  For Cain Velasquez, this is an even bigger oppurtunity.  He's a pheanom at 5-0 in his career and just flowing with skill as a champion wrestler.  A win over Cheick Kongo suddenly puts him in perhaps one or two fights away from a title fight.  This is a big gamble for Kongo, but one I like . . . he's a fighter, and guys who fight like this get rewarded.  Besides, he can't wait.  With Cro Cop back in the UFC, and the Ultimate Fighter focusing on heavyweights (led by Roy Nelson, Wes Sims, and Kimbo Slice) the division is about to get a lot more crowded.  

Predictions below:

Is Deeds Catholic-bating?

Riley seems to be hinting at it over at Virtucon, but rural senator Creigh Deeds seems to really like to emphasize that he is a Presbyterian, which is fine.  But this is a souther, rural, courthouse state senator running against a Catholic.  Now I know that the Dems are going to try and paint McD as an evangelical radical . . . but Bob McDonnell went to Bishop Ireton and then Notre Dame and my ears perk up when a good old boy like Creigh Deeds starts talking the way when a Catholic stands opposite to him.

Nice . . .

I don't usually like to piggy-back on other bloggers good work, but this snap shot is just too hilarious not to post.  Creigh Deeds, he sure knows a lot about owning donkeys on a farm in Bath County, but jobs?  Not so much.

Hold On To Your Wallets, Virginia!

Creigh Deeds wants to be your governor!  And you can bet first and foremost, Deeds will want to raise your gas tax just as Virginia's wallets are being stretched by current gas prices and the Obama recession.  The Dems will try and sell Deeds as a "centrist rural" candidate that can win everywhere, at his core he is what all the Dems are . . . tax hikers.  Bob McDonnell has put together a platform that is new for Republicans, based on new Republicanism in the post-Bush era of true fiscal conservatism, offshore expansion, an all-of-the-above energy plan, and low taxes to keep business in Virginia and foster small businesses instead of killing them with taxes and regulation.

Then we have Creigh Deeds, who as the RGA has helpfully reminded us, hasn't met a tax he can't hike.

Despite prevailing in tonight’s gubernatorial primary, even Democrats know Creigh Deeds’ record of hiking taxes makes him unelectable this fall.

It’s no surprise that Democrat Terry McAuliffe said "Bob already beat Creigh once and he beat him on the gas tax.”

Brian Moran’s campaign also blasted Deeds in an ad saying, “raising the gas tax in the middle of a recession only hurts working people.”

As a state legislator, Creigh Deeds has repeatedly voted to hike taxes:

•Deeds voted twice in 2008 to hike the gas tax. Even when gas was at $4 per gallon, Deeds voted to hike Virginia’s gas tax by more than 30 percent (SB 6009 and SB 713, 2008).

•Supported hiking the motor vehicle sales and use tax by 25 percent (SB 5013, 2006 Special Session).

•Voted to double the fuel sales tax in Northern Virginia (SB 458, 2004).

•Supported increasing the motor vehicle registration fee by $10 (SB 5013, 2006 Special Session).

•In 2004, Deeds helped pass a $1.4 billion tax increase, the largest tax hike in Virginia history (Richmond Times Dispatch, 9/22/05).

•That same year he voted to increase Virginia’s cigarette tax by 12 fold (The Roanoke Times, 2/22/09).

•As far back as 1992, Deeds voted to increase the cigarette tax by 60 percent (The Roanoke Times, 2/22/09).

•Opposed Bob McDonnell’s plan to repeal Virginia’s death tax. (The Roanoke Times, 1/10/03).

•Deeds even pulled the plug on a property tax exemption that a non-profit organization requested to create a 273-acre camp on a parcel that had sat vacant for decades. The non-profit group was planning to invest $7 million into the site (The Roanoke Times 2/13/95).

•Even Mark Warner said that 2008 was no time to be raising gasoline taxes.

There is more than just the usual Republican cant about "your gonna raise taxes."  First and foremost, as I've shown above, McDonnell isn't just a fingerpointer like Earley and Kilgore were, but rather he has brought about a new agenda that Republicans haven't seen since George Allen ran in 1993.  But more importantly, there has never been a time where Virginians can't have taxes raised, especially the gas tax.  We've already seen gas prices climb higher and higher as May turned into June, I can't image what Deeds will say when he wants to turn a $30 full tank into a $50 full tank.  

Its on.

Meet The Backbenchers

Creigh Deeds for Governor

Jody Wagner for Lt. Governor

Steve Shannon for Attorney General

This has to be the weakest Democratic campaign since Beyer-Payne-Dolan and the weakest triumvirate in Virginia since the GOP's 1985 trio of Wyatt Durrette, John Chichester, and Buster O'Brien.  Its weak, uninspiring, and among the three nearly totally void of any real political leadership and/or accomplishment.

Creigh Deeds, at his heart, is a throwback old-school courthouse politician who's figured out the modern game.  His time in the General Assembly has been marked by nothing of consequence, moving upward in the party merely by incumbency rather than astonishing leadership.  When you compare him to Bob McDonnell, perhaps the GOP's best delegate in his days in the House and an outstanding Attorney General who has fought crime, internet predators, and taken leadership and made hard political choices over and over while Deeds has largely stayed on the sidelines.  

As for Jody Wagner, she's the best of the bunch.  Her entire run in Tim Kaine's cabinet should disqualify her from holding any office as she was constantly either wrong or clueless about the states finances over and over, with rosy predictions being thrown out the window over and over.  

As for Steve Shannon, none of this trio fits the term "backbencher" better than Shannon, who's spent four years in the House of Delegates just smiling away, not doing much, but being young and raising money and convincing people that he's electable.  Its the kind of guy that always emerges when one party starts to really prosper - young pols who get elected on coattails and seem to convince everyone they are the future based on nothing but fluff.

That being said, I caution everyone not the underestimate the Democrats.  They may be weak, but so was Jim Webb, so was Tim Kaine.  Yet they won, and they continue to win.  That last sentence I wrote about Shannon easily applies to the leader of the free world.  This trio can win because of the past history in the state, and we must run like we are ten points down at all times.  No more of this Earley/Kilgore "were-fifteen-points-ahead-in-August-we-have-won-already mentality that has crippled us in the last two elections.  I am confident that McDonnell gets it, I know Bolling gets it, and I really know Cuccinelli gets it.  I feel that McDonnell has really found his voice since the convention, hitting the right themes and the right issues.  

The point of this post is that this is our chance.  Our chance to get this commonwealth back on the right track, to rebuild ourselves, and to give our party a much-needed win.  This election will be on its own merits, its clear from T-Mac's colossal failure that whatever the Obama election was, it won't be translated to state elections.  This is our chance, we've nominated our best against their weakest and now all we have to do is, for the first time in a long time, run a smart and levelheaded race based on issues, principle, and energy.  

The Creigh Deeds Hit Job

I have no real horse in the Democrat race for governor, but god I hope Terry McAuliffe doesn't win because THIS will be the politics of the campaign.  Ben's plea that these folks have the right to be heard rings hollow when they wait until the day before the end of the primary to be heard.  I can't believe I'm defending Creigh Deeds, but everyone knows his views on guns and that the NRA endorsed him over Bob McDonnell in 2005.  How long has this primary been going on, your telling me that this couldn't have been brought up in the countless debates over and over?

We know how the Clintons operate, and Terry McAuliffe is that but only amplified.  What he will put this state through is scary, even moreso by the fact that T-Mac knows nothing about Virginia, its state politics, or its traditions.  A disgrace.

The Democratic Primary

I've heard some people ask around, and ask me, who Republicans should "strategically" vote for in the Democrat primary.  There are pros and cons, and activists on both sides are often given to tricks like this.  And usually I am all for the, but for some reason I have always just been so against voting in Democratic primaries, just on principle.  I feel like that we have no business in their business, and its largely motivated because nothing drives me crazier that Democrats trying to tell Republicans what to do and who to nominate.  

So I won't tell anyone what to do, but tomorrow I'm going to go about my daily routine and I won't be voting.  Let the Democrats serve up who they want to, I'm confident that Bob McDonnell, Bill Bolling, and Ken Cuccinelli are strong enough to beat any of these backbenchers the Democrats will be putting up.

What's The Israel End Game

Barack Obama's incredible ability to say so much with so little actual meaning was on display in Cairo this week for his vaunted speech to the Muslim world.  I'll admit, its a good thing to have a president who can reach out to this part of the world and I do agree there are divergent seems in Islam that America can exploit, but the way in which Obama goes about it is troubling.

For starters, Obama seems to accept the premise that the Muslim world has a case against America, and that we have to somehow justify ourselves in everything we do.  A few days later Obama was on the shores of Normandy and the president would have been well served to remind the Muslim world of America's sacrifice.  

But through it all, it has become clear to me that the real way Obama is making inroads into Islam isn't through personal appeal and popularity, isn't through soaring rhetoric or outright pandering lies about Islam's positive contributions to the modern world . . . its about Obama's increasingly hostile stand towards Israel.  

I'm convinced that Barack Obama is dead set on overthrowing the government of Benjamin Netanyahu.  That understanding is what is driving the Muslim world to Obama in the way they raged against George W. Bush.  Obama's harsh stance against Israeli settlements is the nexus of this support, and Obama is playing a dangerous game here.  The expectation in the Muslim world is that Obama will finally be the American president to stand up to Israel - whom they feel aren't a legitimate country.  When I was in Kuwait a while back, I saw some textbooks that don't even acknowledge Israel's existence.  This is in a moderate Arab country.  For the Muslim world to fall all-in with Obama, he must break Israel.  And I'm worried that, like everything else, he is dead serious about it.

What I want to know is what Hilary Clinton, Rahm Emanuel, and James Jones have to say about this - what could perhaps be the most dramatic betray in American foreign policy history.

Where In The World Is Jody Wagner?

The sign wars have heated up going into the June 9th Democratic primary, especially here in Northern Virginia.  Brian Moran and Terry McAuliffe have been up for awhile now, and just this week Creigh Deeds has blankted the area with blue "Washington Post endorses Deeds" signs that are pretty smart.  LG candidate Mike Signer is up all over the place as well, but I have not seen hide nor hair of Jody Wagner, I saw nothing for here at the Celebrate Fairfax festival either.  

I'm not one to necessarily take much stock in the sign wars, but in a primary the can reflect the grassroots support and it seems that Signer might be gaining on Wagner just enough to pull the upset.