MASON CONSERVATIVE

UFC 100 FULL Preview

This is it, the big one.  UFC 100, the century mark show for the UFC has been hyped for months now and boasts a stacked line-up of can't-miss fights between some of the sports biggest stars in fights that mean a lot for the present and the future.  It also features two of the sports biggest names:  Brock Lesnar and Georges St-Pierre.  There are good and interesting fights up and down the card, but its dominated by three main event fights: the heavyweight rematch unifying the titles between Lesnar and Frank Mir; a welterweight fight between champ St-Pierre and challenger Thiago "Pitbull" Alves; and a middleweight contenders battle between TUF season 9 coaches Dan Henderson and Michael Bisping.

MAIN CARD:

Heavyweight Title Unification:  Brock Lesnar (c) vs. Frank Mir (i-c)

Welterweight Title:  Georges St-Pierre (c) vs. Thiago "Pitbull" Alves

Middleweight:  Michael "The Count" Bisping vs. Dan "Hendo" Henderson

Middleweight:  Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Alan "The Talent" Belcher

Welterweight:  Jon Fitch vs. Paulo Thiago

PRELIM CARD:

Light Heavyweight:  Mark "The Hammer" Coleman vs. Stephan Bonnar

Lightweight:  Mac Danzig vs. Jim Miller

Light Heavyweight:  Jon "Bones" Jones vs. "Irish" Jake O'Brien

Welterweight:  Dong Hyun "Stun Gun" Kim vs. TJ Grant

Middleweight:  DB Dolloway vs. Tom Lawlor

Lightweight:  Matt Grice vs. Shannon Gugerty

Three Stories For Three Fights:

1.  Lesnar vs. Mir II:  The First True UFC Heavyweight Superfight

There has been a lot of s-talking between the UFC's dual heavyweight champions, Brock Lesnar and Frank Mir.  This whole heat between the two stems from Mir's anger at Lesnar getting a title shot with a 2-1 MMA record and after he had beaten him.  The heavyweight title was held for a long time by Randy Couture who had left the company in a dispute while champion.  Unwilling to strip Couture of his title in the hopes of getting him back, the UFC created an interim title (which they have done before) which Minotauro Nogiuera won over Tim Sylvia the same night Frank Mir tapped out Lesnar.  Mir was named the #1 contender and the UFC centered season 8 of The Ultimate Fighter around Mir and Noguiera.  But between the taping and airing of the show two things happened - Brock Lesnar destroyed legitimate contender Heath Herring and Randy Couture came back.  Not only did Lesnar steamroll Herring, he popped a huge pay per view buy for the UFC.  So with Mir and Noguiera tied up and a weak HW division the UFC decided to match the superhero Couture against the massive Lesnar.  And Lesnar won.  Then a month later, Frank Mir shocked the world and annihilated Nogiuera to take the interim strap.  

For me, a lot of Mir's trash about Lesnar has been annoying.  Its one thing to mock his skills, thats fair game.  But Mir has talked about Lesnar not deserving the title shot even though he got one based on his win over Brock!  And he says that Brock was in MMA only for the money and has no real appreciation for the art . . . nevermind the fact that Lesnar literally walked away form millions of dollars when he walked out on WWE.  For me, Mir has sapped a lot of the goodwill he got from his win last December by the way he has acted in the run-up to this fight.  But Brock Lesnar is a hard guy to like.  Mir is articulate, technical, and smart.  Lesnar is athletic, powerful, and sullen.  They couldn't be more different in both style and personality.  Lesnar is a smasher, a modern version of Mark Kerr but who's past wrestling superstardom has opened doors faster than most fighters - he's gotten bigger fights and paid more faster than most.  But he's also worked incredibly hard to further his career.  Mir has strugged to find his way in a game he's a natural for.  He skilled BJJ fighter, he so often in the past refused to train hard and instead relied on one submission and perhaps a lucky punch.  It led him to the UFC title in 2004, but a motorcycle accident and broken leg ended that.  He struggled to come back, and surely resents how easy Lesnar has had it.  Mir was a gifted fighter who has found his heart, and Lesnar is a moody outsider who is trying to find MMA skills to catch up to his natural gift of size, power, and wrestling.  

This fight will be won or lost in the stand up.  Both men have fight ending skills on the ground - Lesnar by powerful ground n' pound and Mir by some of the best submissions in the game.  Lesnar's power doesn't seem normal, he sent Heath Herring ass-over-head backwards with a broken orbital bone in the first punch in their fight.  Mir broke Tim Sylvia's arm to win the UFC Title five years ago . . . I repeat . . . he broke it.  He took the arm home.  So for me, its about who gets to the ground on their terms.  Will it be Lesnar's bonecrushing power and reach, or Mir's technical skill and boxing.  If Lesnar wins he will be an unquestioned top 2 heavyweight after beating Herring, Couture, and Mir.  If Mir wins, he gets the same distinction.  Two fighters with two contrasting styles at the top of their games.  It gets no better.

2.  GSP:  The Best Ever?

Georges St-Pierre is on a mission, and there are very few in sports on the plain he is on.  For GSP its not about being champion anymore, its about being the greatest ever in his sport.  We don't get to see that alot in sports . . . Tiger Woods, Michael Jordan come to mind.  GSP is on that same path in his sport.  After getting his title back he's torn through the durable Jon Fitch and the talented BJ Penn, both top ten fighters.  Thiago Alves presents serious problems, a vicious striker who's as bigger or even bigger than St-Pierre, St-Pierre will not have the size and strength he used to obliterate Penn.  What Alves has more than anything are leg kicks that are the most devestating in the game, and he's a flurry away from putting you away.  But this fight somewhat reminds me of Lyoto Machid and Thiago Silva.  Silva is a slugger, a talented fighter who rushes forward over and mover, but Machida was the smarter fighter with the most complete skill-set.  I do not believe Alves has the tools.  He catch GSP sure, but St-Pierre is so good he knows how not to get hit, and how to style a game plan specifically for his opponent.  Alves is good, damn good.  So was Fitch.  But this is his first jump to the big time, and I don't think he has any idea what's coming.  And GSP has more on his mind . . . if he wins here it will have effectively cleared out a weak welterweight division and he gets to set his sights on a bigger honor and one that fans have been buzzing or - Georges St-Pierre vs. Anderson Silva.

3.  Bisping's Chance

A lot has been invested in Michael "The Count" Bisping since he won The Ultimate Fighter season 3.  As one of the few British MMA fighters and its only true star, Bisping has had to carry the sport for an entire country.  And the UFC has been behind much of this, making Bisping the face of their UK extension with him headline two fight cards overseas and made head coach of an entire team of British fighters on TUF 9.  His Wolfslair MMA camp is so strong it attracted Rampage Jackson to join.  He was just a little too small for the light heavyweight division and dropped down to middleweight after a razor-thin win against Matt Hamill and razor-thin loss to Rashad Evans.  At 18-1, Bisping is probbaly the least respected fighter with that record.  Much of that is because Bisping has never taken on a proven top-5 fighter in his weight class.  This is his chance.  Dan Henderson has been there and done that, has a great wrestling background and a powerful right hand.  But he's also 39 and at the end of his career while Bisping seems to be cresting to the top.  I am not as impressed by Henderson as others and think his game is a bit outdated and I think he did lose his fight against Rich Franklin.  The Franklin fight should be Bisping's blueprint as Henderson was dominated in the first round by dynamic striking, movement, and angles.  Bisping can do that and had done that.  He just cannot let Hendo take him down, something I'm sure he's worked hard on.  I think this will be Bisping's coming out party and Dana White has dangled the prize for Bisping if he wins, a title shot against Anderson Silva at UFC 104 in Manchester, England.  

My predictions below the fold

Tim Kaine: ESPYs before Virginia

Tim Kaine should resign . . . he won't, but he should.  We saw what happened here in Virginia back in 2001 when Jim Gilmore tried this with disasterous results for Virginia at a very challenging time.  Then and now, Virginia more than ever needs a full time governor.  Of course, Democrats have been trying to have it both ways concerning two GOP governors - Sarah Palin and Mark Sanford.  They mock Sanford for not resigning when he should, but also mock Palin for resigning we she decided that her interests were in conflict with her direct gubernatorial duties.  And kudos to Delegate Hugo for stepping up and calling Kaine out, too many in our party don't call out Kaine and the Dems.

As for Kaine, this particular quote caught my eye from the DCVA Blog over at the Post.

Kaine will spend tomorrow in Minneapolis on DNC business. He will travel to Los Angeles Wednesday to attend the ESPY Awards, an annual sports awards ceremony created by ESPN, with a friend. He will then fly to Colorado for the DNC before spending two days in Biloxi, Miss. for a National Governor's Association meeting.

Seriously?  Near 10 percent unemployment, a state budget terribly managed by Kaine and Jody Wagner, serious problems that need to be dealt with on a daily basis.  And what part of being DNC Chairman has to do with going to the ESPY awards?!?!  If Kaine wants LeBron's autograph thats fine, he can get it when the Cavs come to DC next fall.  But this is ridiculous!  Now I understand that he is entitled to some free time but this is a terrible show of leadership, that Kaine would rather be anywhere else than Virginia.  Sarah Palin is doing this and decided that perhaps its best to hand the reigns over to someone who seriously wants to run the state every day.  His job is full time.

Now, I have no doubt that Kaine will never resign.  He just won't, but it shows you what sort of "leader" he is, that he is more interested in being Obama's partisan toady than anything else.  And if Creigh Deeds wants to a governor in the mold of Warner and Kaine, does he approve of this?  And furthermore, has anyone even asked Deeds what he thinks about this?  Is this what we can expect from another term of Democrat "leadership."

To shill for a moment, I'm pretty sure that Bob McDonnell won't be spending 30% of his term doing something other than creating jobs.  Maybe thats why the latest poll shows a twelve point swing to the former attorney general.  What we are seeing is a strong argument by McDonnell essentially campaigning against Kaine and exploiting his weaknesses, and then using Deeds own words to attach the two at the hip.  

So How's That Drag On The Ticket Doing?

The first big post-convention/primary poll has come out, and low and behold the entire ticket is six to seven points up on the Dem rivals.  But wait . . . I thought Ken Cuccinelli was suppose to be a drag on the ticket, I thought he couldn't beat Steve Shannon?

What this poll shows me is that Republicans up and down Virginia are incredibly unified, and that the strength of the ticket is that it constitutes the spectrum of Virginia Republicans.  And don't forget, no state has turned ticket-splitting into the artful that Virginia has, especially when it comes to electing Republicans.  Democrats have swept all three offices three times ('81, '85, '89), but the Republicans have only done it once ('97) in the post-Byrd era.  Routinely you'll see at least one holdout make like Andrew Miller in '77 and Jerry Kilgore in '01.  So what this shows me is that Republicans in Virginia are, for the first time in a loooooong time, very unified behind this ticket.

As for the Dems, they have amassed a very strange ticket that has no coherency.  Deeds is a rural state senator who's claim to fame seems to be that he's a "conservative" Democrat, but that doesn't jive very well with the increasingly progressive turn of Democrats both in Virginia and nationally.  And you can't out conservative this GOP ticket, I'm sorry.  Wagner has nothing positive in her background, unless you count massively underestimating the state debt and consistently proving useless when it came to finance, gaining the nomination because nobody else of substance would run.  As for Shannon, he's in the strange place of trying to prove he's more law-and-order than Cuccinelli, and has a thin record of any accomplishment.  Democrats have been winning in the 2000s by a combination of anti-Bushism, a perception of being conservative, and the GOP warring within itself.  This year Bush is gone, these guys can't get tot he right of our ticket on anything, and clearly the GOP is unified behind its ticket.  

I also wonder if there is something of an enthusiasm gap.  My theory on winning elections is that its based on energy, what kind of energy is created by the base and by supporters.  I believe that independent voters generally, in the end, want to be on the winning side and tend to swing towards the side with the most enthusiasm, organization, and energy.  Our team has that right now on all ends of the GOP spectrum.  Nothing about Deeds, Wagner, or Shannon seems to be exciting any Democrat but the most committed.  I don't see either of these three inspiring voters to sway their way.  All three are bland, unaccomplished, and have no base outside of their elected districts - there is nothing ideologically that seems to link the three the way it does on our side.  All three of our candidates have statewide organizational experience (McD and Bolling in '05, and Cuccinelli w/ the marriage amendment '06).  

That being said, its still only a six point lead and none of the GOP team are over 50% so anything can sway this election.  McDonnell has done a good job so far running a structured, disciplined message . . . he clearly understands why Earley and Kilgore failed.  Though "a jobs governor" might sound kind of hokey, its effective because it makes it easy for people to understand what he wants and what he stands for.  He's defining himself before he gets defined.  Four months out, we are where we want to be and its up to these three guys to really stay dialed in, work hard and get the message out.  

"Hercules," St-Pierre vs. Alves

George St-Pierre vs. Thiago Alves is this weekend. Its gonna be beast, I have a feeling that Alves will put up a much stronger challenge than BJ Penn did last winter.

Sarah Palin, Herself To The Bitter End

Many know my affection for Sarah Palin, but even I was taken aback by her decision to resign as opposed to just sitting out her term.  But then again, if she feels that all she wanted to do has been done, and she doesn't want to sit around collecting a paycheck.  Normally I would agree with a lot of the ankle-biters but I think the distance Alaska is from what Palin wants to do combined with the constant harassing and baseless ethics complaints by political opponents that have cost her tons of money makes this a smart move in my opinion.  Its not without serious risk, but a smart move nonetheless.  How refreshing after seeing nonstop selfish and self-serving behavior by governors and other political leaders who hang around for the sake of office and titles.  I understand the critics, that she quit on the people of Alaska, but honestly if Sarah Palin has aspirations outside the state I think its very honest to step aside so the state won't have pay for her travel, and the state can have a governor fully focused on its needs at the local level.  To give up power, to step away from the title . . . its somewhat refreshing, even though she is trying to move on to another.

Clearly, Palin been bitten by the presidential bug.  I don't believe for a second those who say she is retiring for good.  She may fade a bit, but she is testing the waters and is employing something of a fabian strategy, trading space for time.  Its risky, but Palin is banking on the freedom of not holding office being the ace in the hole in being able to contact voters and building alliances and support across the country.  Its just not something she can do working out of Juneau, and it would be a disservice to Alaska if she tried.  She's doing it her way, which I love.  She's junking the consultants and she's junking convention because things have changed.  The old convention doesn't work, and I think we could use someone unconventional.

The is a vaccumin the GOP right now, none of the '08 wannabes excite anyone.  Romney is well respected but I cannot get past RomneyCare in Massachusetts.  Mike Huckabee is simply an evangelical who's appeal is very limited.  Tim Pawlenty is deeply experienced but doesn't move anyone.  There is a burgeoning movement in the country that is beginning to take its early form in these Tea Parties across the country . . . its rather amorphous right now, it hasn't taken full shape, but its the natural constituent base for Sarah Palin to start a national movement towards a takeover of the GOP.  These folks at the Tea Parties are those who feel that government has failed them, and believe its the political establishment inside the beltway - and its both parties.  Tea Party conservatives are tired of Republican insiders who ran to change DC but instead became apart of it.  They see Republicans and Democrats alike growing government, bit by bit taking away our freedom from government takeover of auto companies, environmental regulations that tell us what light bulbs to use, and foreign policy that simply shrugs to freedom movements in places like Iran and Hondorus.  These folks don't necessarily care about party . . . though they clearly see the path to change through the Republican Party.  What Sarah Palin has done, in a state as far away from DC as you can get, and the treatment she got from the very insiders Tea Party conservatives despise, make a likely marriage.  Sarah Palin is a lot of things, but above all she is anti-establishment.  Its often inherent in female politicians, since they are often left out of the old-boy club they seek to change it rather than join it.

This is why Sarah Palin doesn't necessarily need an incumbent office to run for president.  Now she needs to get to work on national issues of all kinds.  Palin is risking it all on the fact that this Tea Party movement will be ready in three years to take over the Republican Party.  It will take a lot of work, and it might not even materialize.  But as a conservative desperately searching for a candidate that wants to lead the base and defend conservative values and traditions, I appreciate that Sarah Palin wants to do this.  It remains to be seen if she can.