Allen For Senate Again? Thank You No.

TC got the ball rolling this week with a thread discussing the likely possibility of George Allen making a comeback for his US Senate seat painfully lost to Jim Webb in 2006.  Trust me, I was in the middle of it and it was painful.  Had he been reelected as was expected, I for sure believe Allen would have emerged as the true conservative answer to the moderate John McCain and the charlatan Mitt Romney.  One on one against Obama without maccaca, who knows what would have happened.  And its the pain in that loss that I think many of conservatives and Republicans welcome the idea of Allen running again.  Allen's lost helped lose the Senate, and we feel  a lot of the crap he took wasn't fair.  And it wasn't.  But the reasons Allen lost are deeper than picking on a Democrat tracker with a strange word taken as a slur.

The Virginia of 2006, even 2010, was a much different place than the one George Allen came up in the 1980s in the General Assembly and in 1993 when he ran for governor.  The explicit conservatism of the suburbs and new evangelical energy coming out the Reagan era into the Gingrich era no loner existed in 2006, and nor does it exist now.  Though I wasn't around for the early campaigns, I've read about them and from what I can tell George Allen never adapted to how Virginia changed.  Between 1993, 2000, and 2006 the state moved to the center.  That is undeniable.  The gains made by Democrats where based on a Mark Warner-style centrism based on making Virginia good for business and good for jobs.  Warner succeeded in marginalizing the perception of Republicans a roughneck right-wingers more interested in abortion that jobs in Southwest or transportation funding in NoVA and Hampton Roads.  A lot of the proof Democrats used in marginalizing Republicans is the style of conservatism that Allen ran and won on.  Jerry  Kilgore, the absolute low-point of Republican statewide candidates, was an Allen protege.  Because Allen's Senate term stretched across this Democrat sweep, he avoided most of this.  His reputation was still strong and his reelection was a shoe-in as long as he had weak opponents and stayed away from tough issues.  But once he said what he said, it allowed New Virginia to take a second look at Allen and realized that he had lost touch with the commonwealth, and while on the surface it was about maccaca, in reality standing behind that were all the new issues facing Virginia that had exploded in the years after Allen was governor and that Democrats had won over the voters on the issues that mattered most.  

I've gone over my theory of Old Virginia vs. New Virginia.  I won't do it again.  But I believe that in the Republican orbit, Allen is Old Virginia.  We saw how Republicans can win in New Virginia in 2009.  McDonnell, Bolling, and Cuccinelli showed us how you can be an aggressive conservative and use that as a solution to the every day problems of the folks out there.  McDonnell talked about jobs, they all talked about jobs.  Our candidates talked about jobs for the House of Delegates.  And we won, we won big.  McDonnell led the way, getting out ahead of an issue that mattered most in this bad economy.  We can't turn our backs away from what we accomplished.  It might sound harsh to some, but returning to George Allen is returning to the Republicanism of 2005 and 2006, where we talk about conservatism aimlessly without the glue of a real agenda behind it.  And maybe I'm wrong, maybe Allen is the right man again, maybe he's learned.  But at this stage of his career, can you believe he has?

create free polls | comment on this

Comments

[Jane Bigelow]

Maybe the Democratic Women of Clifton will comment on this. Seems they are running their Astro-Turf Boiler Room Operation Again.

Hat Tip: InstaPundit

KNOXVILLE NEWS-SENTINEL: WHITE HOUSE SPAM. “We just received this Letter to the Editor submitted by a Tennessee resident. It’s deadwood spam; turf mail. Google various parts of it and you’ll get the White House Web site, AARP, the American Chronicle, Democratic Women of Clifton and my.barackobama.com. Oh, and you’ll also get marketingofcampaignemails.blogspot.com.”

[local gop]

Realistically speaking I would be utterly shocked if either Allen, Marshall, McDonnell, or Cuccinelli ran.

Allen: Like you said, he represents Old Virginia. And further, I think he secretly knows this. Besides, these days anyone who walks around with a can of Skoal in their pocket needs a serious reality check.

[local gop]

Marshall: Do the words "Delegate Marshall claimed that children with disabilities are God's punishment on women who receive an abortion," ring a bell? I can see the commercials now.

McDonnell & Cooch: Wont leave office for Senate. Cooch couldn't win state wide against an incumbent. Even with all the anti-washington sentiment, Webb will run up the middle and take swing voters that vote on single issues. Cooch has kind of shot himself in the foot for 2012 with all the anti-gay stuff anyway (that's how it is perceived).

[not local gop]

Davis could never win a Republican nomination in Virginia.

Prior to 2008-2009, I would have said it was at least possible (perhaps even likely at one point), but certainly not anymore. The things he's said about the party, the consevative movement, and the Tea Party movement on CNN, MSNBC, Politico, etc. would come back to haunt him.

You simply don't go on national television to trash talk your base and then ask for their votes.

He's done. Finished. Gone.

[Dan]

"Davis could never win a Republican nomination in Virginia."

That may not be accurate. Depends on the method of choosing the nominee.

The open primary would be more favorable to him. In a primary you not only have truly independent voters participating but both wings of the Republican Party, the right wing and the far right wing are on a more even footing. So he would have a decent chance.

In a convention he is toast. He is far too sane to win there.

By 2012 any comments made about the tea people are going to be largely irrelevant. That "movement" will be in the rear view mirror. Freedom Works and AFP and the other Republicans who created it will have likely moved on to a new strategy by 2012.

They will have great gobs of corporate cash thanks to the Citizens United decision. They will have plenty of resources with which to be creative. Their tea party toy will be very stale by then. Not likely to be a factor. If it ever truly was.

[Lee Talley]

Chris,

George Allen = Conservativism with no glue behind it. WHAT IN THE H#LL are you talking about! George Allen practically invented Conservatism based on issues and the "Big Idea".

Also in the scheme of things Senator Allen lost from on the field technical mistakes in his campaign not from Macaca as the general wisdom says.

You really think Bob Marshall has a chance. Ha, have you seen the petitions and groups ripe for any opponent of him to mine over his vile statements about special needs kids. Marshall may not even win his HoD seat back (I pray for a primary opponent). George Allen made some mistakes. Bob Marshal is just plain evil and a user. George Allen fought for our conservative issues with big idea's from when he was in College. Bob Marshall is just Pat McSweeny's lapdog.

[not local gop]

Davis has maligned not merely the Tea Party movement, but also the base, social conservatism, Sarah Palin, downstate Virginia, etc, etc. etc.

I don't think there will be enough cross over, even in an open primary, to make up for the anger the base has toward him or would quickly rediscover if a primary opponent simply replayed Davis's TV appearances in advertising or on YouTube.

Primaries, even open primaries, primarily feature the electoral power of a party's base. You cannot win a statewide primary in Virginia without the conservative base. There are too many of them.

Moreover, most of Virginia's electorate is still downstate. Northern Virginia is growing, but we are not the majority. Much of Virginia's electorate remains suspicious of Northern Virginia politicans of BOTH political parties and Davis is the sort of Northern Virginian who excites all of those suspicions.

We sometimes forget in Northern Virginia that despite our growing electoral power, the only Northern Virginians to win contested nominating contests in the past decade are Ken Cuccinelli, Leslie Byrne, and Don McEachin. Of those, only Cuccinelli won the resulting election.

Mark Warner and Steve Shannon both ran unopposed and only Mark Warner won the resulting election.

Meanwhile Terry McAuliffe, Brian Moran, Michael Signer, Dave Foster, Bob Marshall, and Sean Connaughton all lost to candidates from downstate.

In over 10 years, the only candidates Northern Virginia has successfully nominated and elected to statewide office are Mark Warner and Ken Cuccinelli. Both succeeded where all others failed because they managed to appeal to downstate voters (both of them on the basis of guns, among other issues).

Davis is no Warner and he is no Cuccinelli.

[not local gop]

The situation is even more stark if you only look at Northern Virginians who won MAJORITIES in contested nominating contests.

The only one do that in decades is Ken Cuccinelli.

If you want a preview of what a Tom Davis statewide nominating campaign would look like, you need look no further than the candidate Davis endorsed last year: Dave Foster.

[Ron]

You didn't want to include Bill Bolling in your poll?

[Dan]

I think the assumption is that Bolling will be running for governor in 2013.

[Chris]

I don't include Bill Bolling because I posted something right after the election that Bolling would be a fantastic candidate. It was immediatly made known to me by people I trust that Bolling for Governor '13 is guns-a-blazing and nothing will change. Its part of the reason why McDonnell running for the Senate might make sense, it lets Bolling jump right in and run as a rare incumbent.

But yeah, a lot would have to change for Bolling to run for the Senate.

Lee, what your talking about is the past. Allen ran a terrible campaign in 2006 that was devoid of a message because what he ran on wasn't what mattered any more. I know a lot of older Republicans who love Allen don't want to hear this, but sometimes we just have to accepted the day has past and its time for someone new who is more in tune with the average voters needs. Your right, her an on the big issues - but that was in the past. 2006 showed me that Allen did not understand how to run in modern Virginia.

[Lee Talley]

Chris,
2006 was a aberation caused more by internal campaign team dynamics than anything else. 2012 George Allen will be like the George Allen we all grew to admire and love. You won't a repeat of 06.
I like Bill Bolling too, but I really want to see him be Governor. He showed lots of integrity and guts in running for LG again. The Governor's Mansion is his for the taking.

[Chris]

I don't buy it Lee. I've spent almost six years as an activist up here in Northern Virginia and Allen just did not connect. His cowboy persona does nothing for folks up here. In the last ten years this area has exploded with new residence who don't know the old George Allen that we all love. That is what this is all about. We elected out next generation in 2009 and I don't see why we need to go back to the days where Virginians did not support Republicans.

I don't think 2006 was an aberation. The things Allen campaigned on didn't connect with voters up here, and deserved or not there is just too much baggage. We've moved on and we need to stay moved on.

[Steven Osborne]

Chris,

State senator Jill Vogel is young, a new face, and is a conservative leader who wrote one of the healthcare freedom bills that was signed by Gov. McDonnell.

[Howie Lind]

This is absurd. Ken is the true face of conservatism! The Tea Party is the true power in the GOP. RINOs like Davis need to take a hike, we are the power now. As a member of State Central, I have proudly voted for Conventions and as your 10th District Chairman, I will institute conventions all around to ensure only true conservatives voices are heard. RINOs and Democrats simply dilute the voting process for nomination. The 10th will have much stronger candidates with conventions

As far as Bob Marshall, how can you all attack such a stalwart conservative? Bob Marshall is a PRINCIPLED leader and one who we need to put out front and center. These attacks on him are nothing but media hitjobs, if anything, Bob can do better than simply being a delegate for one district. You all will be seeing more of Bob

[Pat Fawcett]

Tom Davis a RINO? You betcha! And don't forget Tom's little puppet, Pat Herrity.

[Howie Lind]

Yes.

Keith Fimian is the candidate of conservatives and the Tea Party. The establishment cannot defy the will of the people, that's why Jim Rich left the race, that's why RINOs like Davis and Vince Callahan are no longer in power and its what the next generation of leaders in Bob Marshall, JoAnn Chase, Keith Fimian and Ken Cuccenelli will bring about a new era for Virginia and our country.

[WoodbridgeVa]

Personally, I would like to see Kay Cole James as our candidate for Senate in 2012. Solid conservative, solid Republican, great personal history.

[Steven Osborne]

woodridge,

I did some research on Mrs. James, I am very impressed

[Lee Talley]

Howie Howie Howie... How's that other stalwart conservative you supported Jeff Frederick doing these days. You are who you hang around Howie. Do you have your hand in the till like Jeff did. Can you raise any money cause God only knows even JFred's grandma wouldn't send him birthday money let alone a campaign contribution.

I've got no beef with Ken he's good people and a damn fine AG but if you think in the 10th district you can grown our party by being strictly conservative your are seriously smoking the Ron Paul crack. I'm sure with that attitude and lack of foresight in party growth Congressman Wolf will love having you drive his support and fundraising into the ground. I'm sure Congressman Wolf will come to all your district meetings when your antics over true conservative principles and purity tests cost him his job. I bet he's just excited to see you on the ticket.

Now as far as the Lord and Savior almighty Bob Marshall he's not conservative he's just plain evil. Throwing special needs kids under the bus to further kiss up to the pro-life crowd that already supports him no less is nothing but the epitome of opportunist and slime. Between that and his other votes he's radioactive as the North Anna reactor. Also if the Great Leader Marshall is such a conservative how did he get endorsed by the Sierra Club. The same Sierra Club who's supported by non other than George Soros.

Oh and by the way why so paranoid against the "establishment" who do you think that is? Delusional paranoia if you ask me. Drunk with power you don't even have. Have you and JoAnn been out drinking with Crazy Crabel again? Tell us some of your other "Theories" Howie... Are you a truther? a birther? come on... what do you think happened in Oklahoma?

[Howie Lind]

Lee, I can see you are just a part of the establishment and part of what is wrong with the Republican Party in Virginia.

It was the establishment that forced Jeff Frederick from power. Jeff was elected overwhelmingly by a majority at the convention while the establishment's candidate in Hager was soundly defeated. The establishment simply could not stand watching their power being taken away from them by conservatives. They set out to destroy Jeff with false accusations and vicious smear tactics designed to tarnish Jeff's good name and overturn the will of the conservatives. I am very sad that they succeeded, Jeff was an inspiration to all conservatives.

You are also absolutely wrong on the 10th District. We have been weak in the 10th by running candidates and leaders that dilute the conservative message. We need more Eugene Delgaudios and Mark Sells than we do Tom Rusts and Glen Caroline. They are the ones who have weakened this party. By running candidates and leaders committed to principle, we will expand our control and paint the district red. As chairman, I will hold all Republicans fully accountable. If they do not adhere to our conservative principles, they will be challenged for their nomination and soundly defeated.

You are also not a part of my email list. If you were, you would know that I personally raised over $30,000 for a McLean headquarters in 2008, which I also personally staffed. In addition, I also personally raised the funds for the Fairfax County Republican Committee to hold a GOTV Rally in McLean, which was also my idea. I also raised a substantial amount of money in my bid for State Senate in 2003, although the establishment used its influence to ensure true conservatives did not have a voice in that race.

Congressman Wolf is very supportive of my bid for chairman. Your insinuations are childish and absurd. The support I have is the support of the true conservatives and the tea party movement. They want a change from the Jim Rich establishment that has run our great district into the ground. The fact that you would dare ridicule their passion and attack leaders such as JoAnn Chase and Bob Marshall only shows that you are in the wrong party.

[Lee Talley]

Wow Howie isn't Tom Rust your delegate? or at least he's delegate seat is in at least part of the 10th. Are you saying you don't support Republican candidates. Wow a public admission to violating the state party plan. You know that would make you not eligible to run for Chairman. I think you owe Del. Rust an apology. Say your sorry Howie.

True Conservative huh? Is this a written test if so I'd love to take it. Who are the judges? Does it require a DNA sample? or do you and the other minions of Marshall, McSweeney, and JFred have the final say of who gets in the true conservative club?

Btw you never answered my questions from the previous post... Come on Howie you can deny the folks your thoughts... answer them...

here they are again for your convenience

Have you and JoAnn been out drinking with Crazy Crabel again? Tell us some of your other "Theories" Howie... Are you a truther? a birther? come on... what do you think happened in Oklahoma?

Tell me what you and all the "True" Conservatives believe. Be a man and tell us the truth.

As for me its simple. I'm a Republican, just like I'm an American no prefixes or suffixes for me. In the general election I vote for the Republican Candidates and in the Primaries I vote for whom I consider the best candidate. If my candidate doesn't win I go to work for the one who did. Can you say the same. Somehow... I doubt it.

[Howie Lind]

My delegate is Barbara Comstock, someone who I personally and solely recruited to run and was instrumental in her victory. That seat would not have been recaptured without my efforts.

Delegate Tom Rust needs to stand up for principles, if he fails to do so, then he like any other candidate will be held accountable the next time they are up for nomination.

The difference between conservatives and the RINOs who control the Republican Party in Virginia is simple: principles. Conservatives will run on the relevant issues to voters, regardless of the cost. RINOs like Tom Davis, Vince Callahan and Jim Rich run away from what makes out party great and talk like Democrats. We don't need that, although it sounds to me like they are your kind of "Republican".

[Lee Talley]

Del Comstock is great. The work she did during the the Bush 2000 campaign was really outstanding. Now tell me what "Principles" are you talking about. What "Principles" has Delegate Rust violated?

Again you never answered my other questions Howie. Answer them...

No Howie I'm no RINO. I'm fairly red meat actually.While I consider Tom Davis a friend, (He has shown extraordinary kindness to my autistic son) sometimes his votes were a little too middle of the road for me but I also admired that he wasn't a man who said "NO" but would actually legislate. You can't be the party of big idea's when the first word out of your mouth is NO.

I think more than a few folks in OUR fine party can vouch for my red meat conservative credentials. Ask around the next time you attend a State Central meeting.

[Lee Talley]

$3,490 Hunt for Senate - David
$255 Bolling for Lt Governor - Bill
$205 McDonnell for Delegate - Robert
$100 Phillips for Senate - Patricia
$100 McDonnell for Attorney General - Bob
$100 Earley for Governor - Mark
$90 Cuccinelli for Senate - Kenneth
$75 Baise for Fairfax County Board Chair - Gary
$50 Cuccinelli for Attorney General - Kenneth
$10 Hugo for Delegate - Timothy

Which totals up to $4,475.00

and no money's listed at all for Barbara Comstock's race.

Thats all the documented money you gave? Where is this $30,000 you personally raised for the McLean Headquarters. Being a federal year wouldn't that have to be documented as a campaign donation if you bundled the funds together. Then again as a JFred supporter I'm sure you like Jeff wouldn't know campaign finance law from reading from the phone book. Taking credit for things undocumented is really a shame there Howie... You can do better. I may not be a "true conservative" but at least I don't take credit for others work.

Like Droopy the cartoon dog says... "Cheaters never win..."