Prediction

Florida Senate vote in November 2010:

1. Marco Rubio: 45%
   
2. Kendrick Meek: 32%
   
3. Charlie Crist:  23%

That's right.  Kendrick Meek will defeat Charlie Crist.

Comments

[Dan]

Think you are being a tad optimistic there. I think Rubio's best case is to top out in the 38-40% range and hope for a fairly even split of the other 60% between Crist and Meek.

Crist has a very realistic shot at winning this one. 35% could win it all. It will be interesting to see how all three play this one. Crist running as an independent may also give Meek his best shot at winning.

This one is going to be fun.

[local gop]

Where are you getting this 'prediction' from? on what basis do you make it?

[Chris]

a) Florida is a Republican state, and clearly Republicans have spoken for their preference for Rubio, or else Crist wouldn't be doing this.

b) The emperor has no clothes on. Crist is now fully exposed as what he has always been . . . a political opportunist who cares for nothing but his own political accent. There is always a hint of that in every politician, but Crist has laid bare the he considers his career more important that his constituents.

Crist has no compelling reason for running as an independent, like Joe Lieberman did. Lieberman was defeated because of won issue - the Iraq War - and issue he managed to frame as one of conscience. Other than that, he was a down-the-line liberal Democrat who had been the vice-presidential nominee a scant six years earlier. Why is Crist an independent? What issue that he is passionate about is Rubio taking from him or hammering over his head? What is his narrative for making this move? DC is broken? Every Republican insider in DC from Cornyn to McConnell to McCain to Grahamnesty ALL supported him.

The fact is he was getting his ass kicked.

And Dan, your crazy if you think Meek can win. Because I sense the hand of the White House behind this move, that there is some back-channel manuevering with Crist that as an "I" he will caucus with Dems should he win. Expect the word to get out.

[Dan]

Chris, I may be crazy as you say, but this is anybody's race to win. In a three way race like this it may well come down to who is polling third at the end and how many of their supporters end up voting for the guy they consider the lesser of the two other evils in order to avoid what they consider the worst possible outcome. This is wide open and anything can happen.

If Meek supporters think their guy is running third and can't win, some of them will probably peel off and vote Crist. If Crist supporters think he is running third (the scenario you predict) some of his supporters will peel off. Will they then vote Meeks or Rubio? The trashing Crist is taking from the Republicans may turn them toward Meek. And Rubio has little choice but to attack Crist. That is the only place he can find additional support. It ain't likely he will convert a lot of Meek supporters.

Rubio's support is almost exclusively going to be Republican. Hardly a majority of voters in Florida. He isn't likely to reach a high water mark above 40% in a three way race. So he needs a pretty even split of the other 60% between Meek and Crist. And he could well get it. But it is hardly a certainty. This thing is wide open and will likely remain so until the end. Unless some of the financial scandals that touch both Crist and Rubio become significant in the campaign. But I wouldn't bet on that.

I'm not sure how you figure there is any difference between Joe Lieberman in 2006 and Crist in 2010. Except that as a partisan you applauded Lieberman because his entirely self serving, opportunistic move kept a Democrat out of the Senate and you abhor Crist because his entirely self serving opportunistic move may keep a Republican out of the Senate.

While Iraq was a key element in the primary vote against Lieberman, it was hardly the only factor causing dissatisfaction with Lieberman. And it is hardly any less valid than Republicans in Florida being dissatisfied with Crist because he embraced the president on stage when he visited the state.

If you take your partisan blinders off for a moment you will see that what Crist is doing is precisely what Lieberman did. And for the same selfish motivation. There is no difference.