More On The Fimian Poll

Several things caught my attention in both the poll and the reaction afterwards.

I think Fimian's attacks on Herrity's tax increasing record has worked, and more importantly Herrity hasn't really defended himself well.  This is a good indication of how the campaigns have been running.  After some time, Fimian found an issue to create a narrative on and just zeroed in on it.  Herrity's campaign hasn't had a proper come back yet, all they have done is complain about lies and distortions.  But every Fimian press release has county board minutes and voting records to back up their claims.  Herrity has not articulated a good defense, just complained.  And his online presence has done the same thing, just complained about lies and distortions as if that is all they have to do.  Herrity's response to Keith's poll was telling.  He attacked Fimian as a liar, and then sighted his own poll having him up within the margin of error.  The problem is that Pat's poll was from March, and in the date on Fimian's website they compare their new poll with a poll of their own from 3/10 that had Fimian down as well.  The point of the new poll is that Keith is surging . . . and point Herrity's inept campaign has helped made by citing on old poll!  Herrity's strength is suppose to be his competence and readiness, but it doesn't seem to be the case here.

Second, I believe the Cuccinelli endorsement is worth more than every name on Herrity's initial list combined.  Fimian's strategy has been to envelope his campaign with the outsider, grassroots, tea party movement.  That heart of that movement has been active in Virginia since 2002 when Cuccinelli emerged as a state senator and leader of the statewide anti-tax referendum.  While Fimian was making headway, the endorsement by the actual leader of the conservative movement in Northern Virginia gave Fimian credibility with conservatives who are the most fired up this year.  We have to remember that a lot of people who vote for Cuccinelli are not necessarily political people, especially social conservatives who don't always like party politics.  He gets them out, and now his organization - which is very good - is out working for Keith.  Also, what Cuccinelli is doing as Attorney General - taking on climate change "science" and suing the federal government over a health care mandate - has conservatives very excited and incredibly supportive of the AG.  Right now, Cuccinellis is a hot commodity and there are a ton of Republicans and conservatives looking at him for leadership.  That has now translated to Fimian.

Thirdly, the undecideds remain undecided.  And I wonder if they will ever decide.  You have to wonder what impact undecideds will have if they are still this undecided.  Usually this close to an election you see them begin to break one-way or another.  Herrity's campaign is stuck in quicksand, unable to articulate a message and a reason why Herrity is actually running other than entitlement.  Herrity also seems to be broke because there is nothing out there for him but road signs.  Keith has taken to the airwaves and spent his money, but has raised a lot as well.  If Herrity wants those undecideds to break for him, he better do something soon to give them a reason or proof that a) he is more conservative that Fimian, and b) has a real reason for running.

I will admit that with the high undecided rate, this race remains in flux and open.  But Fimian's disciplined message, Herrity's achilles heel on taxes that Fimian has exploited without a good rebuke, and the momentum of the Cuccinelli endorsement has to give Fimian the momentum right now.  Fimian's only problem is the voters he is trying to get out for him are conservative, but not always reliable.  He has to have a superior GOTV to win this.

Comments

[local gop]

chris,
in all fairness, your 'objective' analysis is about as objective as my 'objective' analysis; which is to say that you are not objective at all, you clearly prefer one side over the other and that clouds your judgment.

let's be honest here, both sides have pros and cons and either would be a better choice than connolly.

[VA Slogger]

Chris, this whole post is completely misinformed. How can you seriously say that raising the property tax rate is raising taxes when the average tax bill in Fairfax County went down due to decreasing assessments.

You are misinformed by writing that Cuccinelli's endorsement means anything in the 11th Congressional District. Are you saying that Dave Albo, Barbara Comstock – Delegate, Tim Hugo, Vince Callahan, Jackson Miller, Tag Greason, Jill Holtzman Vogel, John Frey, Mike Frey, John Cook, John Stirrup, Wally Covington, Marty Nohe, Michele McQuigg, Tom Peterson, Bob Lederer, Liz Bradsher, Patty Reed, Austin Haynes, Mike Polychrones, Jay O’Brien, Gwen Cody, Roger McClure, Dick Dingman, Will Nance, Marianne Horinko, Sasha Gong, Jay McConville, Jim Hyland, Chris Merola, Aaron Ringel, Marc Cadin, Mac Cannon, Anthony Bedell, Becky Stoeckel, Mike Thompson Sr., Mark Johnson, Siddique Shiekh, Harold Pyon, Puneet Ahluwalia, Kishore Thota, Vellie Dietrich-Hall, John Brownlee, Donald E. Scoggins, Inge Gedo, KayAnn Schoeneman, Terrence Boulden, Ali Ahed, Mike Thompson Jr, Danny Vargas, Steve Lam, Joe Underwood, Joe Regan, Julie Dime, Donna Widawski, Anna Lee, David Skiles, Paul Miller, Shak Hill, Greg Stone, Rob Hartwell, Larry and Nancy Krakover, Bob Carlson and Paul Liberty are all not conservative enough compared to Cuccinelli?

Also, are you just plain misinformed or are you aware that Herrity received Nancy Herrity's endorsement? I guess she's not conservative, either.

[VA Slobber]

I just want everyone to know that the previous post is an impersonator who replaced the letters, "gg" with "bb" in my tag.

[VA Dogger]

Everyone stop playing with my pseudonym PLEASE! I'm tired of it.

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=dogger

[An insider]

Local,
I agree with you. Your analysis is not objective. It is also irrelevant. But, it has provided comic relief. Now, be a good boy and go rearrange your deck chairs.

That is all.

[local gop]

my gosh...i wish i had come backs as catchy as an insider's....

i mean, substance is good, but you can't beat those retorts.

[Boss Herrity]

A taxing politician who has trouble with the truth. Sums up Pat well.

www.herrityhikedtaxes.com

[Fairfax GOPr]

I have personally listened to Keith Fimian speak in public forums and he has stated out loud (not in a cartoon bubble over his head) that illegal aliens should be allowed to stay here - it's ok...he just wants them to pay taxes. HUH??? People who are here illegally should just start paying taxes? Exactly which social security number would he like them to use??? And what's he going to do...drive around with a bullhorn through a sunroof and say 'Come out, Come out wherever you are?'?! How bizarre...his visage is pleasant enough, he has crafted the platitudes, but his rhetoric is vituprative, his background questionable and he does not have the political legs to win the race in November...he has treated a Primary race with a fellow Republican like a death match and that stench is one he will not be able shake win (hopefully not) or lose. Our County NEEDS Pat Herrity to win this Primary so we can end the long decline path for which Gerry Connolly needs to be held accountable in the November race.

[Nike Shox Turbo]

Mistakes are an essential part of education. (Bertrand Russell, British philosopher)

[Nike Shox]

Your article looks good, I like bits and pieces of daily life, like a movie.