The Tea Party And Virginia

So the Tea Party scored a major scalp last night when Rand Paul tore through Trey Grayson, and by extension Mitch McConnell.  So it got me thinking, where is the tea party in Virginia.  Now I know one exists and they are out there making their voices heard, but not like they have in Utah and Kentucky or are looking to do in Colorado and Nevada.  After all, we have three highly contested congressional primaries in the state and we have seen nothing like what is going on in other parts of the country.  

Arkansas and Kentucky provide us with two major lessons about the tea party and its effectiveness in GOP primaries.  In the Kentucky Model, it was simply Paul versus Grayson with nobody else to siphon off votes.  And much of the tea party economic outrage blends in perfectly with Paul's views.  But if you look at Arkansas, where the Republican primary consisted of three major candidates and several smaller ones, Rep. John Boozman was able to fight off both Jim Holt and Gilbert Baker (along with five other candidates), who were vying for that tea party vote.  Boozman is a conservative politician but voted for TARP, which opened him up to criticism.  The way Boozman handled it was to stay positive and not cede the ground. 

In the 2nd district, Scott Rigell has long been the favorite to win the nomination and despite revelations that he gave money to Barack Obama and insinuations about his dealerships and cash for clunkers, he still maintains his favorite status.  My personal thinking is that none of Rigell's primary opponents have been able to convince conservatives that Rigell isn't a good candidate.  There is also a lot of candidates in the 2nd, so there is no one person the movement can coalesce around.  The 2nd seems to be following the Arkansas model, where Rigell has stood tall to the attacks and they don't seem to be hurting.   A big boost came from Bob McDonnell's endorsement, who is as hot a politician out there.  And if Bob isn't loved anywhere else, he will always be loved in Virginia Beach and in the 2nd district. 

In the 5th, you would think the terrian would be ripe for a tea party takeover.  Southside has always been Virginia's most conservative region, and though State Sen. Robert Hurt has been a successful politician in the area, he is far from as conservative as Virgil Goode.  But in his races for delegate and state senate, Hurt has built a constituency.  However, like in Kentucky, winning state races clearly means nothing.  But like Rigell, Hurt seems to have maintained his lead based on the conservative vote being split among multiple candidates.

In the 11th, who knows?  This has the most chance to being like Kentucky, where you have two candidates who clearly represent the establishment, Pat Herrity; and the grassroots in Keith Fimian.  And while some might have doubted Fimian, the endorsement from AG Cuccinelli no doubt bolstered his appeal.  But the problem with the 11th is that its chalk full of government employees and contractors, so will the tea party message resonate?  If its kept to simply overspending and economic issues of limited government, it can work.  I actually have no feel on this race, despite my Fimian advocacy.  I can see it going either way, there just has not been a lot of polling out there. 

So what is going on in Virginia?  The Tea Party is clearly active, but why aren't they making more of a dent in these contested congressional races?  They were a major force behind Ken Cuccinelli's election last November, as a part of McDonnell and Bolling as well.  I think the biggest reason is that Republicans in Virginia are a pretty conservative lot.  None of the front-runners that are deemed moderates - Herrity, Hurt, or Rigell - are moderates in the national sense.  I mean if Robert Hurt is a moderate in our party, we are a pretty conservative party.

But perhaps more importantly the Tea Party isn't some advocacy group organized politically to give endorsements like the VFW or League of Women Voters.  Its an amorphous group of angry citizens worried about the spending and deficits of the country.  And despite what the media and Democrats want us to believe, this is not a partisan group per say.  These people aren't seasoned activists, nor are they naturally partisans.  The anger they have is not political in our established party systems.  Republicans need to really wake up to this reality, that this is not a group that can be used that easily.  We have seen in some of these congressional races in Virginia that talking too the tea parties doesn't mean coming from the tea party.  Rand Paul was considered one of them in a way that someone like Laurence Verga just isn't.  This is not a group easily defined or easily won over.  Their activism is so focused and in a way so pure, its hard for politicians to crack that.  Rand Paul won them over in the same way Ken Cuccinelli did . . . he just connected because he was honest and uncompromising. 

I think the strength of the Tea Party right now exceeds that of the Republican Party, and perhaps the GOP should temper down their expectations because this is a volatile group that will not be won over just because GOP candidates throw out Obama's name.  These folks are truly principled and are looking for the real deal, but more than anything they are looking for authenticity.  I'm betting most tea partiers are willing to accept a Mark Kirk, who won fair and square, over some of these guys pretending to be what they are not.  I believe the GOP brand is still tainted badly, and this talk of winning 100 seats is pretty wild.  I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm just saying we need to be better at reading the tea leaves, so to speak. 

The lesson here isn't just about getting more conservatives elected, I think its about getting honest men elected.  Like I said about Mark Kirk, he won fair and square and is pretty honest about who they are.  And its all about the economy and spending.  Jobs, the deficit, these are the issues that have the Tea Party so angry.  Government take over of our lives through health care and energy taxes.  A united and principled front on these issues will win elections for Republicans.  Embrace the Tea Party message and be genuine.

And we need to recruit new and young candidates.  A fresh generation of conservatives not tied to the Bush or Clinton years.  You see candidates like Rand Paul, Ken Buck, Sharron Angle, Marco Rubio, and Mike Lee that are new and exciting.  Some have state level experience seeing what the federal largesse has done to states and its citizens.  They are new with no connection to the past sixteen years of misdirection both parties have clearly led us on.  But there is no direct paradigm we can use as a be-all-end-all to measure how the tea party will affect local races and even Senate races.  But its clear they are giving us the ideological road map to victory.  New candidates with a fresh outlook and a conservative ideology based on economics, deficits, and fighting government intrusion in our lives.  That would be a start.    

But the Tea Party is not like anything we have seen before, and Republicans better not treat them like they are getting an NRA endorsement.  Its not going to work like getting support from the NRA or some other organization because that is not what it is.  There is no power structure, there is no board to win over.  These people are looking for authenticity, the real thing.  And they have a tremendous radar for knowing what is and what is not. 

Comments

[John H]

Chris,
You make some valid comments about the Tea Party of Virginia. But, like many Republicans, you show s lack of understanding that is subtle, yet potentially devastatingly naive.

Based upon your comments, I'm quite certain you've not attended a Tea Party event. I'm not an expert, but I've been to three major Tea Party events in three different states.

The Tea Party rank and file are everywhere among you. They most often don't have a bumper sticker on their car or fly a Gadsden flag, their signs are home made. They often don't put political signs in their yard. They communicate on email lists, facebook, and list servers, phone trees, etc.

They believe in the Constitution and judge you by your understanding of it and your adherence to it. They are not "moderates" about what is or is not in the Constitution. They are not "moderates" about preserving this Republic for future generations.

The Tea Party leadership is amorphous. There are a handful of organizers. But, there is no national, state, or local "platform" or list of talking points. They study history, they know the Declaration of Independence, the Articles of Confederation, the Federalist Papers, the Constitution and the Bill of Rights. They know the thoughts and dreams of our Founding Fathers. They often meet in small groups like a bible study group. The Virginia Liberty Project is leading the way in that regard.

Because you don't know about them does not mean they don't know about you. They instinctively know if you understand what you are talking about. If you don't, they subtly and politely ignore you.

You should go to a Tea Party event. You'll meet the nicest, most polite, most well behaved and concerned citizens you have ever witnessed.

You are correct on a number of points. They instinctively recognize those political leaders who are not sincere, who are not authentic, and who just figured out they are conservative. And they are going to vote. But, a politician should not expect a Tea Party endorsement. Individual Tea Party adherents have already figured that out, one vote at a time.

[VA Blogger]

It's one thing to call Pat Herrity the "establishment" candidate, but a completely different thing to call him a moderate, considering the lack of policy differences between him and Fimian, something you've mentioned multiple times.

Also, both Fimian and Herrity have enthusiastically reached out and worked the Tea Party crowds.

[Chris]

VA, read it again. I said the candidates "deemed moderates," and I'm saying that if they are moderates we are a pretty right wing party.

John, I'm not sure I said anything that doesn't disagree with what you've written.

[local gop]

the problem with long term viability of the tp is that it has stemmed from anger...an anger that will eventually fizz out so to speak.

john,
not sure what the articles of confederation has to do with the tp either. also not sure that they have some type of 6th sense on politicians either.

they just seem to be more angry and searching for an outlet than anything. not making a good or bad judgment, just pointing out an observation.

[Chris]

local, that is a typical mainstream Republican response. its why we won't win back Congress unless we embrace their message, because its a message from the people. Sure they're angry, but they are no mob. I think these folks are here and here to stay. Sure there is anger and frustration that is part of the motivation, but its deeper than that and it goes back farther than just Obama. Try and wait this out and we will lose.

[local gop]

i didnt say they are a mob...although fox news would have you believe they are a giant million man mob that descends upon washington at the drop of a hat.

the trick here is for tea ppl and republicans to work together. reach consensus where it can be reached, and agree to disagree on issues that there is no agreement on; maybe even find compromise. because the tea party by themselves wont win, and the gop by itself wont win. but if both work together we can win.

i ike rand paul. i like him a lot. cant stand his hair though lol. he speaks in a manner that appeals to a wide base and yet he maintains a 'cut-above' sense of leadership that is critical in these turbulent times.

why mitch mcconnell felt the need to run someone else i will never know, but none the less paul is the nominee and i would be proud to campaign for him.

i like the message of the tea ppl too. its about issues like the economy, national security, and individual liberty. these issues are ones that we can agree on at a very basic level. they dont spend much time on divisive social issues that mostly serve as a wedge.

sometimes though i do roll my eyes when i hear some of them say stupid things like 'i want the government to keep their hands off my medicare.' but every party has those who are uninformed.

[Chris]

its really arrogant to call regular folks uninformed just because they aren't exposed to the sausage factory of politics. i argue that its the political hacks and operatives that work in both parties that are uninformed to the every day issues of the people out there. and the sooner the gop realizes off the better we will be.

[Dan]

Wait a minute, Chris. He didn't call anyone uninformed because they aren't exposed to the sausage factory of politics. He called them uninformed for being benefit recipients of a very popular government program while being ignorant of the fact that it is a government program. Which displays a staggering level of ignorance. I think his description of them as uninformed was exceedingly polite.

The fact that they are in many cases supporting politicians who opposed the creation of that program and who have for decades worked (and continue to work) to reduce or eliminate that program makes their ignorance even more breathtaking.

What is most shocking is that such signs have appeared for months at their rallies and there have been any number of interviews with participants who express this idea. Do you think Dick Armey could take a little time to put out some accurate information to the folks he is trying to manipulate? Or would that violate the FreedomWorks charter? I know being accurate and telling the truth isn't normally his thing. And he is awfully busy creating "grassroots" movements up there on K street.

[Bruce]

I love how being endorsed by the sitting Attorney General makes one an outsider. :)

Cuccinelli won because he appealed to BOTH outsiders AND insiders. He was endorsed by party leaders, as well as by conservative organizations.

Two years ago, rumor had Tom Davis nudging Steve Hunt out of the Congressional race to help Keith Fimian. Today, Fimian is the outsider?

[John H]

Reading these threads makes me believe that, with the exception of John H, most of the contributors have not been to a Tea Party.

Tea Partiers are not angry. They are polite, but resolved to restore the Republic. They are not an uninformed rabble. Rather, they are seasoned and experienced at detecting phonies and frauds. Many are disaffected Republicans. Many are not. Many are libertarians and former Democrats.

Candidates can embrace the Tea Party. But, appearing at a Tea party and asking for their votes is a failed strategy. Tea Party voters will choose their own candidates based upon a candidate's record and their authenticity. They can instinctively determine who is honest, trustworthy, believable, and sincere.