MASON CONSERVATIVE

Victory!

Joe Miller will be the next United States senator from the state of Alaska!!!

Amazing race, hopefully Alaska 2010 will be a reminder to every new Republican entering Congress next year.  Lisa Murkowski represents the old way of politics - who you know, how far you can climb on the inside - that is being rejected across the country and remaking the Republican Party from the big spending, big government GOP of the 2000s into a conservative party for the 2010s. 

Two races to watch out for by the end of September - Delaware and New Hampshire.  The Tea Party Express is in the First State going after Mike Castle on behalf of Chrsitine O'Donnell, while Ovide Lamontagne just got a boost from an endorsement by the Manchester Union-Leader. 

Right now these folks might be elected to the US Senate:  Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Joe Miller, Pat Toomey, Sharron Angle, Mike Lee, and Ken Buck.  That, my friends, is quite a change.

I'm Liking John Boehner More And More

He's not perfect, but he seems one of the GOP establishment Republican leaders who get what is going on out there in the economy and in America to real people.  He's not flashy, and I know he's got some young guns breathing down his neck on the GOP side like Eric Cantor, but if we take back the House I want to see Boehner get a real crack at being speaker.  Here is Boehner's speech from last week that he gave to the City Club of Cleveland.  He made headlines by calling for the firing of the President's economic team, but there was a lot more there.  Its almost an hour but I suggest you give it a look if you have some time, it gives us a glimpse onto his total thinking and outlook.

McDonnell's Strategy Makes Its Way To Nevada

Wild And Wonderful!

Rasmussen shows that Republican John Raese is within striking distance of Gov. Joe Manchin in the US Senate race over in wild and wonderful West Virginia.  As of now Manchin is up 48% to 42% according to Rasmussen.

First Read reminds us that what makes a good governor doesn't always make a good senator:

*** Why Manchin might not be a sure bet in November: The general election is now set in the race to fill the remainder of Robert Byrd’s (D) Senate seat in West Virginia, after Gov. Joe Manchin (D) and businessman John Raese (R) won their respective primaries on Saturday. Although Manchin is undoubtedly the front-runner in this contest -- due in large part to his high approval ratings -- here’s a word of caution for Democrats: Popular governors running for the Senate haven’t always enjoyed success. In 1994, Wyoming Gov. Mike Sullivan (D) lost to Craig Thomas (R); in 1996, Nebraska Gov. Ben Nelson (D), whose poll numbers were in the 60s, lost to Chuck Hagel (R); and also in ‘96, popular Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld (R) lost to Sen. John Kerry (D). What makes someone a well-liked and successful governor isn’t always what voters seem to want from their U.S. senator.

You see it all the time in states that are nationally Republican but elect Democrats locally and vice-versa because local issues don't always jive with national issues.  This year is a perfect example where there is such anger at what Obama and the hyper-liberal national agenda that it could overwhelm everything a popular governor like Manchin has done.  The issues that voters consider when electing a governor aren't always the issues they use to elect a senator. 

If John Raese can use his deep pockets to tie Manchin to all the things Obama is doing and how it hurts the state he could pull it off.

(h/t Political Wire)

Bob Marshall Doesn't Want Fed Money

I'm not sure McDonnell's willing to turn this money down

"Please stand firm against this maneuver of the Obama Administration to increase states' dependency on the federal government.  This bailout will also raise our national debt which is owed to foreign dictators who reject our vision of inalienable rights and self-governance."

"It is wrong to indebt those who have no way of expressing their vote to pay for our reckless spending. In fact, it is 'taxation without representation' obligating future generations without their consent"

I agree whole-heartidly with Del. Marshall, mostly because of the dependence of federal money this creates.  Its like a drug, you know you shouldn't take it, you know its going to make you broke, but the fix is just too good.  The problem is that there are very few politicians can let this money go by because it solves so many problems short-term, but it causes more and more in the future.      

The problem is fixing the right now does more damage.  This kind of cash is usually pumped into existing projects or used to launch new ones.  But its only a one-time infusion, and these kinds of projects tend to snowball as they move down hill faster.  So that means that money has to be replaced, usually by federal earmarks, state tax increases, or passing the buck to local government who are forced to consider things like meals taxes.  In the end, it all ends more deficits and the greater need for states to go begging to the feds for more money and the cycle just repeats itself.

It amazes me that Bob Marshall has to make so many lonely stands on issues like this, and catches as much flack from Republicans as he does Democrats. 

Greatest T-Shirt Ever

NRO's Campaign Spot says that Pennsylvania Senate candidate Joe Sestak (D) is "giving off a Creigh Deeds-y vibe."  Then he shows us the best t-shirt I've ever seen a campaign issue.

Apparently when Pat Toomey wins it will be Toomsday

Want To Know How Palin Wins The Nomination?

Just got finished watching a segment on Hardball, with my jaw on the floor, as Chris Mathews almost beamed at David Corn explaining that Sarah Palin has to be taken seriously.  Corn tried to marginalized Palin as simply a Facebook candidate but Mathews explained that there is a real political charisma there. 

Palin's endorsements haven't always been given for the purposes of winning, but its the message she's sending with them.  Nobody thought Clint Didier would beat Dino Rossi, and I imagine she's even shocked that Joe Miller might beat Lisa Murkowski.  Her pattern has been that of someone building a national structure based on McCain voters, conservative women, and tea party candidates.  She has also made strong stands in important early primary states that balanced the wants of conservatives who love her and back a winner in a big state that will owe her.

Some have mocked her for not having a great endorsement record, but Palin is one of the very few talked about 2012 candidates who make endorsements when it matters.  I laugh every time I see Mitt Romney roll out endorsements in places like Michigan AFTER the primaries.  Its a joke.  The only other major GOP candidate that is making endorsements in tough races is Mike Huckabee.

The first four states in the presidential primary for the Republicans are Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina.  In Iowa, Palin picked the practical candidate who gives her the best chance to win in Terry Branstad.  The conservative standard-bearer in Iowa is Bob Vander Plaats, and he's a staunch Huckabee supporter and Palin made the smart play for picking Branstad who has been governor forever in the past.  Iowa lines up, to me, as a battle between Palin and Huckabee. 

In New Hampshire, I'm thinking this might be kind of a downer because of Mitt Romney's big presence in the state, not only politically, but also personally with a home that he owns there.  Palin went with Kelly Ayotte, a fellow female "mama grizzly" who is not the most conservative candidate in the race, but not the most liberal either.  Ayotte should get the nomination the same way Carly Fiorina did . . . having someone both on the left (Binnie) and the right (Ovide) running around her. 

The comes Nevada, where Sarah Palin has made a big splash at tea party rallies there, as well as backing Sharron Angle, who's profile mirrors hers -  a regular women with a strong conservative streak.  If Angle is able to beat Reid, she would be a hero to conservatives and its likely she would be Palin's shoehorn into the Silver State.

Then comes South Carolina, where Palin helped push Nikki Haley across the finish line, is fertile Palin ground.  If she comes here with two out of three wins, she can close the deal here.  Its a conservative state with a populist streak and a knack for doing what they want.  In 2000 they ended John McCain's bid to defeat George W. Bush, but in 2008 gave McCain a crucial conservative state win that I think sealed the deal over a conservative evangelical in Huckabee.  Though Romney endorsed Haley as well, its clear to anyone who knows anything that it was Palin's endorsement that mattered most. 

Now there is a ton to do to get to this point.  Palin still has to campaign, talk to the press, and better articulate her views on all the issues and be able to communicate it.  Whether she can do the heavy lifting remains to be seen, but her endorsements show there is serious calculation in what she's doing and its working.

Could McCain 2010 Have Beaten Obama 2008?

The Fix has this little nugget:

McCain campaign team : The political organization put together by the Arizona Senator, a group that included many veterans of the 2008 presidential campaign, ran one of the most ruthless (in a good way) races that we have witnessed. The McCain campaign understood from earlier this year that former Rep. J.D. Hayworth posed a serious challenge to the incumbent. Armed with that knowledge -- and a little bit of fear -- they executed a plan to simultaneously shore up McCain among conservatives while discrediting Hayworth among that same group. (It didn't hurt that McCain raised and spent better than $21 million on the race.) The strategy worked perfectly -- putting the race out of reach months ago and ensuring a fifth term for McCain.

That plan could have won McCain the presidency, instead of pussyfooting around Obama and letting Sarah Palin do all the heavy lifting, and then chiding her for it.  They found embarassing footage of Hayworth and attacked relentlessly.  Meanwhile, in 2008 there was Jeremiah Wright and Obama telling Joe the Plumber he wanted to redistribute wealth, but he did nothing about it.  As much as I'm glad McCain won over a political hack like Hayworth, its sad that McCain only showed campaign strength and guts when it came to saving his own ass instead of working to defeat Obama and avoiding all the mess of the last two years.

The GOP and Minority Candidates

I really haven't dug too deep into this but one very interesting thing coming out of all these primaries is the diversity in the GOP candidate field.  Democrats can always claim more minority candidates, but that is because they've created majority-minority districts in every state that allows them to have safe minority seats.  Its amazing how few minorities the Democrats have running for office in districts not created for minority candidates.  As of last night, Republicans now have three African-American candidates for Congress - Allen West in Florida, Tim Scott in South Carolina, and Ryan Frazier in Colorado - and all have a chance of winning.  Despite being branded as anti-Hispanic, Republicans have nominated for statewide office Marco Rubio in Florida, Susanna Martinez in New Mexico, and Brian Sandoval in Nevada - three very important races in three very important states.  Add to that Nikki Haley in South Carolina, who is of Sikh decent, and you have a group of candidates that is as diverse as any slate ever put before the country.

Upset Of The Century So Far?

If Joe Miller, a former federal judge and state magistrate with just $84k in the bank right now, defeats Lisa Murkowski where does that rank in the lexicon on political upsets in this young century of the 2000s?  Miller is qualified to be a senator, to be sure, but as a lawyer and a judge.  But he had no money and nowhere near the name recognition as Murkowski, nor the same case to send him to Washington as the senator.  Murkowski entered her reelection with senoirity, a position in the GOP leadership, millions of dollars, and near 100% name recognition. 

The race is not over, there is still enough uncounted votes out there for Murkowski to win, but lets just say for a moment Joe Miller does in fact win.  Where does that put him on the all-time upset list for statewide candidates?  So far in the 2000s, I think the biggest upsets are Begich over Stevens in Alaska and Webb over Allen in Virginia.  Thoughts?

P.S. - whatever you think of Sarah Palin, its clear she still has some real juice in Alaska and a grassroots organization and apparatus in the state that Murkowski has just bothered to create.  I think Sarah Palin could run for any office she wanted too in Alaska and win.