I'll comment on the Fimian numbers because that's the race I'm most familiar with. This poll has Keith up 42% to Connolly's 37%, while close to 21% are undecided. This has to be nothing but bad news for Connolly. The man has been running and winning elections for 20 years within this district and if there are still 21% undecided that means he's lost a lot of voters and its just up to Fimian to close the show in the next month. There is speculation in the comments section that Fimian has gotten to 50% in his own polling, but I have no idea if its true. Connolly has comimssioned an internal poll and hasn't released it. It tells me, given the circumstances of this election, that what they got back wasn't good. I know not everyone releases internal polling for various reasons but you would think Connolly would want to prove he is surviving the GOP wave and has momentum. Its telling that his every move hints that he knows he's down.
My only pause is, as Greg notes, Connolly's money. I just gave some, I hope you all will as well to get Fimian across the finish line. There are a ton of undecided voters and Fimian needs help to get all of them and it will take money to do it.
The quarterly numbers are due out on Oct 15 I believe. That will certainly be something interesting to await.
Posted by: local gop | September 29, 2010 at 05:57 PM
I have no better guess as to where this race is than anyone else. But I think you might want to be cautious about giving too much weight to the polling you cite. Consider who did the polling and who paid for it. It isn't the stuff of objective polling that you would want to hang your hat on.
You might also want to review your own blog and see how many months the "Connolly has an internal poll but he's not releasing it publicly so the results must be bad for him" meme has been part of the Fimian narrative. If the roles were reversed you would be citing the clinging to this very thin gruel as desperate.
I have no idea what Connolly's internal polling is showing him. But if he had made it public it would tell you absolutely nothing. Campaigns often release selective portions of such polls that serve their purposes while holding the rest close to the vest.
My own sense is that VA-5 and VA-2 are very competitive but that Connolly will be staying in Congress a couple more years. This year represented your best chance to knock him off. I just don't think you have the candidate to do it.
Lay in the beer and we'll all find out on election night.
Posted by: Dan | September 29, 2010 at 06:02 PM
VA5 is better than competitive. Robert Hurt is going to Congress.
that said, we will continue to work like dogs down here because we remember losing to Pelosi-enabler Perriello by only 727 votes in '08. never again.
Posted by: kelley in virginia | September 29, 2010 at 08:34 PM
Dan seems like a Connolly plant. As I recall, he was cock sure Herrity was going to win.
Posted by: Beth Jenner | September 30, 2010 at 12:10 AM
Dan has been posting on blogs for several years now. That's quite a committed plant.
I'd be willing to fund scientific tests in order to find out whether most accusations of "plants" come from plants themselves.
Posted by: VA Blogger | September 30, 2010 at 12:50 AM
Go ahead and fund your scientific tests. Make sure to share your results.
But, while we're eagerly waiting for your test results, here's list of the top ten plants: local gop and Dan. You'll probably need several tests to determine which one is number one.
Wouldn't it be cute to put them in the octagon? They could have a tickle fight to determine the winner.
You could sell tickets as a fundraiser for Horinko's campaign.
Posted by: Mary Anne in Prince William | September 30, 2010 at 10:13 PM
AWESOME!
If we take VA-9 we take the House... bottom line!
Steve
Common Cents
http://www.commoncts.blogspot.com
Posted by: Steve | October 01, 2010 at 12:04 PM
I heard Gerry Connolly was advertising on Craig's List for paid canvassers to go door-to-door.
If that's true, it is indicative that Connolly has money, but limited grass roots support. It also would suggest that Fimian will win handily.
And the best part is that if it really is true, then Dan and local gop can find some honest work.
Posted by: Leigh Ambrose | October 03, 2010 at 01:15 PM
Connolly seems to be winning the sign wars in yards in Vienna. I just got a Fimian sign, but it's feeling lonely here. :(
Posted by: Signs | October 09, 2010 at 05:12 PM