MASON CONSERVATIVE

Handicapping Allen vs. Kaine

Its a long way to go for both guys to get the nominations of both their parties but its clear George Allen and Tim Kaine are the heavyweights in their respect parties for the 2012 US Senate race.  Kaine, current DNC chairman, is basically waiting for Barack Obama to ask him to run so he can with his official backing.  And I have no doubt he will win, and he will run with the backing of the DPVA establishment led by Brian Moran.  I'm hearing rumblings that to ensure Kaine is the nominee, the Democrats want to go with a convention in 2012 to nominate him.  Its funny how Republicans have gone the opposite direction and George Allen seems to be embracing the chance to prove himself again by taking on all comers while Kaine seems to be gaming the system throguh Moran to make sure potential upstarts like Periello or Petersen don't catch fire. 

What Kaine's entry into this race will do is make it a completely national race, and I believe the winner will be of the party that wins Virignia in the 2012 presidential election.  Gov. Kaine is so closely identified with Preisdent Obama - he's his DNC chair, was the first sitting govenror to endorse Obama, and almost got the VP slot.  Kaine will have the Obama colors on him more than any other Senate candidate in the country.  Allen, on the other hand, should he get the nomination will represent the conservative revolt against everything Obama has stood for as president. 

Both carry their own baggage.  Allen will eventually have to deal with the demons that brought him down in 2006, while Kaine has to deal with the fact that he had a largely lackluster tenure as govenror, and many Democrats in Northern Virginia just aren't wild about him anymore.  Reading some of the Dem blogs out there, the grassroots seem restless and I'm sure they'll get behind Kaine and Obama but I'm not sure he won't get bloodied in a primary/convention.  The excitement among the grassroots seems to be with Tom Periello. 

Both men represent the old guard in their parties, and both men are trying transform from the politics of the past and reshape themselves in this new Obama/Tea Party Age.  But if it does end up Kaine vs. Allen, I do think the winner will be the same party that wins Virginia's electoral votes.  Whoever is at the top of the ticket will have a gigantic impact on this race.

Rob Wittman: The Mild-Mannered Conservative

Interesting little profile of Rob Wittman that speculates about his future.  Its funny, as pointed out on Virtucon, its funny that everyone thinks Wittman is a moderate based on his demenour rather than he's basically had a perfect voting record on issues like TARP, bailouts, et al.  He doesn't fit the tea party mold, but he does in his votes.  Tested so far, Rep. Wittman has passed with flying colors.  The 2008 votes are especially impressive because he was still a very junior member of Congress and I'm sure had all the pressure put on him by the Bush Administration and Eric Cantor to vote a certain way. 

If Wittman makes this race, I think he would be a very interesting candidate and one that could definetly get behind.

THIS Is A George Allen That Could Win

Now that the Democrat field is wide-open, and the chances of a real Obama-lover like Kaine or Periello becoming the nominee, I'm beginning to reside myself that right now George Allen is our best candidate and we just can't wait.  I've made my points, there's no reason to continue to blather on about it.  Consider this me just thinking out loud, but we need to get serious with a serious adult candidate.  I've made no secret of my support for Corey Stewart, so we'll see what happens this summer. 

But getting back behind Allen is made easier when his campaign puts out videos like this where Allen has traded in his lame over-used football references for real straight talk about freedom and liberty.

 

Do NOT Underestimate This Man

Gerry Connolly is a political street fighter who can message, get his voters out, organize, raise money, get nasty, throw elbows, and work extremely hard.  Sure he's an assh*le, but nobody cares about that when your winning.  He's taken all the tough votes that Periello and Nye did, but he got reeelected. 

Webb's Out, Leaving Many Questions

I am pretty surprised by this, to be honest.  I figured Webb enjoyed policy enough that he could slug through another campaign.  He was, by far, the Democrats best option.

But what does this mean for Republicans?  For starters, it means we have to get our nominee right.  If we pick the right person they could be there for awhile.  Much of the appeal for George Allen was to see him exact revenge on Webb, but that won't happen now.  Does this men a real heavy hitter like Ken Cuccinelli or Bill Bolling gets in?

I'm guessing the nomination for the Dems will go to Tom Periello, since I don't think Tim Kaine will run.  He's young, hard-working, and an attractive statewide candidate but he's had to eat some tough votes.  What I'm wondering is if Gerry Connolly might feel his oats and get in this thing.  He'll have a huge base to start with, tons of money, and a pretty good organization.

I wish I was smart enough to know what was going to happen, but I honestly think that between guys like Kaine and Periello and Connolly - the Dems have a deeper bench statewide than we do if all we can do is George Allen or Jamie Radtke. 

Changing Representation

So it looks like Jess and I finally found a place to live.  It took awhile to give up the dream of buying a four bedroom house and instead settle in a comfy apartment, but its fine.  We found a nice place through a friend who use to work with us at Enterprise in the Fairafx Corner area - which is perfect because I love the movies, she loves Potbellys, and we both love Coastal Flats.  So we are excited.  I also decided to take a look and who's in and who's out in terms of my represenation.  Lets have a look:

Congress:  IN - Gerry Connolly, OUT - Jim Moran

State Senate:  IN - Dave Marsden, OUT - Janet Howell

House of Delegates:  IN - Mark Keam, OUT - Ken Plum

Board of Supervisors:  IN - Pat Herrity, OUT - Cathy Hudgins

Its not great, and I have a feeling from what I can tell is that I don't think I will be staying in Herrity's district.  But I'll take him for now as the lone Republican in the Chris-o-verse.  But in the relm of Democrat craziness; Connolly, Marsden, and Keam are upgrades over the Restonistas that have been representing me for the last few years.

But this hopefully will mean I'll get to do more than just support Steve Hunt, I'll get to vote for him!

The Shrinking World Of Senator Mark Warner

A posh Alexandria town house must be a nice escape from the realities surrounding Sen. Mark Warner, Virginia's only self-proclaimed "radical centrist."  His cowardly non-vote yesterday regarding the repeal of Obamacare got me thinking about the new realities in Virginia that I believe are haunting Warner through the halls of Congress.

2008 was the pinnacle year for everything Warner had been working for, going back to the years in the late 80s toiling as state party chairman while Gov. Wilder and Sen. Robb seemed contnet to tear each other apart.  Twenty years later Democrats controlled the governorship, both Senate seats, the state Senate, and seven House seats out of 11.  Gone were GOP stalwarts like George Allen, Tom Davis, Vance Wilkins, Virgil Goode, and Jerry Kilgore.  The GOP leadership fell to a Speaker, four congressman, a lieutenant govenror, and an attorney general - the last two seemingly circling each other ready to continue the war within the party for the gubernatorial nomination.  But most impressively, Virginia went Democrat in a presidential election for the first time since 1964 - Lyndon B. Johnson. 

But in that victory were the seeds of defeat sowed.  Barack Obama was not a president who understood southern Democrats, who knew - as Bill Clinton did - there were just some votes you couldn't make them take.  You can't ask Rick Boucher to vote for cap and trade, you can't ask Glen Nye and Tom Perriello to vote for nationalized health care.  Democrats of the past knew this - but Barack Obama isn't Democrats of the past.  He's an leftist ideologue who can hide his ideoligy behind the platitudes of a well-reheresed reading of a Teleprompter. 

Then the Republicans came back.  Like two edges of the same blade, Bob McDonnell and Ken Cuccinelli arrived in Richmond and have together disproven every single mantra and rolled back all the work left behind by then-Gov. Warner.  Where Warner said he had to raise taxes to save the state, McDonnell has proven revenue is driven by lower taxes and less regulation.  And its AG Cuccinelli who has, through his office, forced every single Virginia Democrat reckon with Obamacare and take a stand on it.  McDonnell and Cuccinelli have, in my opinion, together disproven the entire legitimacy and legacy of Mark Warner's Richmond tenure. 

In the ashes of 2010, every single Democrat gain in the House of Representatives was lost - though the 11th stayed blue, the 9th finally went red - 20 years of work now nearly gone.  Should Republicans win the state senate, Warner's legacy would further be demolished.  Then comes Sen. James Webb, the accidental senator, who looks to either not care about reeelection or really waiting to raise money.  By 2014, Mark Warner could be all alone staring at Bob McDonnell across the ring from him all alone. 

I have a feeling this fear could explain Warner's rather odd behavior and statements as a senator.  The "radical centrist" moniker has been widely panned, this vote won't help him with anyone, and when Democrats both in Virginia and DC are looking for fighters against the tea party-fueld GOP onslaught, Warner is nowhere near the battlefield, instead working with Saxby Chambliss on something nobody but the No Labels crowd is interested in.  He has shown no leadership, no new ideas, nothing.  Instead, as the kitchen has gotten hotter, Sen. Warner has made his way to the back porch.  Where ten years ago Warner was a titan, today he has shrunk to a man watching his legacy wither away in Richmond and his clount and voice shrinking in Washington, DC. 

No wonder he doesn't want to take votes on tough issues.