I thought this was a silly question, especially with news that South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint - Romney's most prominent conservative backer in 2008 - won't back him without a full repudiation of the Massachusettes health care law. Its sort of an odd position for DeMint to take since he endorsed him in 2008 without that condition. But DeMint is in a different position these days, but is it DeMint that has maybe misred the conservative tea leaves on this?
Chris Cillizza has an interesting video up pointing out that much of Romney's quiet ground work over the last four years seems to have paid off as conservatives do view him much differently than they did in 2012 when Mike Huckabee was able to undercut him and take much of the conservative vote from him, enabling John McCain to sail between them and into the nomination.
The saying goes is that Republicans love the inevitable, the next in line. Romney is the logical choice to play that role given his high-profile run in 2008. But Romney has gone about things differently this time around, spending more time helping Republican candidates and building up goodwill with the grassroots rather than throwing money around to get endorsements and build an organization that never got the support of the people. In all the candidates and names we hear, is it all just more sound and fury signifying nothing? Does it all just come back to Romney if he's able to take New Hampshire? Every single All but one GOP presidential nominee (Bush 2000) has won the New Hampshire primary. None have gotten the nomination without the Granite State. Maybe Romney's boost in the polls with conservatives is based on Romney's work on the grassroots and helping candidates rather than just wrapping up endorsements from politicians.
What helps Romney going into 2012 is many GOPers don't want a repeat of the John McCain disaster, much of his nomination was owed to operatives and pundits insisting McCain was more "electable." Many Republicans might be thinking that what if it had been Romney, and he certainly did as much as anyone in 2010 to help GOP candidates across the country. Also, there is not conservative standard bearer, no right wing candidate with the emotional support of someone like Goldwater or Reagan or even someone like Pat Buchanan that can create a real contrast with Romney. There are a smattering of conservatives who represent factions of the movement - Santorum for the SoCons, Paul for the LibertarianCons, Mitch Daniels for the EstablishmentCons - but none seem to have the complete support of conservatives and without their own serious flaws. Tim Pawlenty offers some interesting optiosn, as does Haley Barbour. But on the other side, Romney is vulnerable to a dark horse candidate who conservatives could rally around, especially if Romney cannot shake the health care law.
But before I thought there was no way that Mitt Romney could win the nomination, but now I'm beginning to have a hard time finding scenarios where he can't. I believe he skips Iowa, learning form last time it was a waste of resources and insteads builds his momentum in New Hampshire and Nevada heading into South Carolina. The Palmetto State will be the true test for Romney with conservatives. He's putting the work in NH and polls show him strong, and he won Nevada's caucus last time around. If Romney can pile up NH, NV, and SC - three very different states with a very different political traditions would show just how strong he is.
Anyways, food for thought.
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