I think Ben's right about this map drawn up that this could be a catastrophe for Democrats. I do not believe Barker (39th) or Marsden (37th) were made safe enough that those seats can't be flipped. They are looking to save Colgan's seat (29th) by taking it down to Dale City, but without a compelling candidate and Jackson Miller running, that looks to be a flip. And then I looked at this new 31st district that stretches across the northern eastern edge of the county and down into Arlington. This is now the seat it looks like Caren Merrick will run in, and while the Arlington areas are strong, thrown in where Great Falls and McLean - heavy Republican areas.
The central problem facing the Democrats is that both Democrat senators from Arlington retired so in order to protect the incumbents and their majority, they had to pie cut it up for Howell, the new 31st, and bizarrely Barker. So instead of packing new districts with Democrats, they freaked out and are using Arlington to buttress Fairfax incumbents who still might lose. Then suddenly, parts of progressive Arlington might be represented by a Republican in two district - Barker and the new 31st.
And I figured out who my new reps are. I stay in Dave Marsden's Senate district, and I have now moved to David Bulova's new VERY winnable House seat.
Barker is very creepy. Here's hoping he's gone next cycle. There's a race Herrity could probably win easily.
Posted by: Polly Wingate | April 02, 2011 at 07:15 AM