Tim Kaine will have the full support of the Democratic party establishment now that he appears to be in for this run for the US Senate.
George Allen is slowly lining every major Republican behind him, and the few running against him thus far have failed to make a dent in his run towards the nomination.
The major parties are very entrenched in Virginia, and very few can overcome the party choice for statewide office. Rebellions are few and far between. George Fitch tried against Jerry Kilgore. Leslie Byrne tried against Gerry Connolly. Look at the 2010 5th CD primary. A million Democrats tried against Jody Wagner. The list goes on and on for both parties.
Obviously there are heavy rumors that Bobby Scott will make the race, and he would give Tim Kaine serious problems because of the support he would have in the black community. Scott would also make things awkward for President Obama in the wild world of Democratic identity politics. Obama had already rejected one Democratic black candidate in a major Senate race - Kendrick Meek - in favor of an established white candidate. Scott also represents one of the biggest base of support for Democrats in Virginia from Richmond to the Democratic precincts of Hampton Roads like Newport News and Portsmouth. Scott's problem is that's about it for his support base, and would take a lot of time to get ahead in the rest of the state.
As for Allen, he's more vulnerable than Kaine to a challenge but nobody with Scott's stature has thus far declared. Allen has to worry about a candidate emerging that will captivate the right wing base that has always existed in RVP - from Michael Farris to Oliver North to Ken Cuccinelli. Bob Marshall attempted a similar run against Jim Gilmore - who barely had the support of the party. Marshall is a candidate who is great on 95% of the issues, but then takes very principled stands on issues but they don't always make for smart politics. But Marshall, for constantly being derided as a gadfly, has a real record of achievement in the House of Delegates. Corey Stewart faces a bumpy road to reelection with an independent candidate and a Democrat with money - but the county remains Republican and it has not suffer the way other parts of the state have. Stewart, I believe, could give Allen a real run for his money. But the problem for both Marshall and Stewart is the off-year elections they have to run in, giving Allen a full year headstart.
Is it inevitable?
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