Rumor: Fimian For LG?

Hearing that Keith Fimian will not run for Congress in 2012 . . . instead he might throw in to the wide-open Lieutenant Governor's race. 

Anyone else heairng this?

Comments

[PubliusPublicola.]

Several Times !!

[Charles]

Something new for him to lose.

[WhatJesussays]

Corey Stewart or Mark Obenshain will destroy him.

[Greg L]

Been hearing about this for some time. My advice for Keith: bad idea, unless you really can't think of any other way to dispose of extra time and treasure.

[Liz M.]

Chris Keith has been saying that for months

[J.R. Hoeft]

Sorry, Chris. This is just unreported "news".

[WhatJesussays]

And the reason it is "unreported news" is that no one really cares and everybody wants him to go away. Why don't you challenge Pat Mullins for RPV chair? At least you can do something productive there.

[politicalspectator]

Corey Stewart is dead on arrival. Just raised property taxes. Worked out well for his predecessor when he ran for lg. oh...and for Fimian's 2010 primary opponent. Mark Obenshain is riding the family name and is from the Shenandoah valley...meaning he has never been in a real race in his life. Remains to be seen if he can raise the money to be formidable. Mark doesn't even have his own neck of the woods locked down. His hand picked Rockingham sheriff's candidate got smoked a couple weeks ago in the primary. Fimian has obviously lost twice, but in a very tough district. He will out raise both guys and is well known by republicans in the most populous part of the state.

[Not Tim Edson]

Don't disrespect the man just because of his name. Mark Obenshain has been the leading voice on school choice, tax Reform, Eminent Domain reform. When Keith Fimian was punching guys in the face and stealing patents, Mark Obenshain was pushing the conservative agenda ahead.

[Fimian for Dog Catcher]

Under Corey Stewart's watch Prince William County has been ranked the #1 job growth locality in Virginia and the DC Region. Prince William's tax bills are the lowest in Northern Virginia. Not to mention his national profile on combating illegal immigration. We need a proven winner and conservative like Corey not a two time loser like Fimian who couldn't win in the best Republican year in the last 20 years.

[Stephen Spiker]

It is discouraging to see that the best-made arguments for Fimian's candidacy continue to be negative attacks on his potential opponents (and past opponents), rather than a positive narrative for himself. It's tough to see how launching your campaign by blasting other Republicans, when you haven't won a race yourself, will go over well with Republican activists statewide. I imagine they will especially recoil at the prospect of smearing the Obenshain name.

[Chris]

Its hard to see where Fimian fits in this. Between Obenshain and Vogel, I don't see where he fits. I personally think Corey might still make a Senate run because Allen can't pull across 50% and has bad numbers with indys.

Now if Cuccinelli somehow isn't running for reelection (challenging for governor or possibly a cabinet position in a conservative administration ala Bachmann or Perry), there is more room. If its comes down to Fimian vs. Vogel . . . with Obenshain running for AG he might have a shot.

But I just don't see how you get to the right of Obenshain - who is the real deal both in politics, principles, and on his record.

[Chris]

Here is the thing . . . the GOP in this state has done goofy things with this position - think Joe Canada, Michael Farris, Nathan Miller. Because there is no real "job" here, it really is up to who Republicans are more ideologically centered around so sometimes your record means nothing. If Fimian ran the same campaign in '13 that he did in '10, he could get the nomination. LG is set up perfectly for him him in terms of his political skills and getting a nomination. Its a job with little power so you don't have to make the argument about experience because you can't apply it. Its not like GOV or AG.

[Springfield District]

Glad to see Pat Herrity's former staff is at it again. Find some new talking points. These didn't work in the primary.

[Qualifications schmalifications!]

LG? That is shooting way too low with a record of winning elections like Fimian has. I think he should run for president. All the polls indicate that Republican voters are dissatisfied with the current field of candidates.

Some people say two time loser. I say third time's the charm!

Fimian for President! Because there is always room for one more clown in the circus.

[Lovettsville Lady]

This is a terrible idea. Fimian needs to find a new hobby.

[Not Dave Foreman]

Today must be the Herrity Office blogging day.

[GOPHokie]

This whole discussion largely depends upon our method of nomination in 2013.
If its a primary, there is a decent chance Cooch stays as AG which means this battle of Fimian vs. Obenshain for LG. Under that scenario, if Fimian can greatly out raise Obenshain he has a shot. He did just spend $5mm in NOVA getting his name out there. Other than that, Obenshain is a Senator and still has a family legacy within the party. That always carries alot of weight b/c primaries still have a very small turnout.
If a convention is chosen, Cooch will likely run against Bolling. This will mean Obenshain runs for AG and Fimian might be all alone in the LG's race.

[GOPHokie]

For full disclosure I have already endorsed Obenshain, so someone could argue I am biased. That being said, he appears to be making good connections in his travels around the state. Fimian (or anyone else for that matter) would need to start making the rounds to keep him from getting an even bigger head start.

[Chirs]

GOPHokie . . . what about Jill Vogel? She's been talked about practically since she got to the Senate for LG?

[GOPHokie]

I would expect her to pass if its LG. AG could be a different story, but she still has plenty of time to build herself up too.
Also, her and Obenshain in the same race would probably doom both of them since they would pull alot of people from the same general geographic area.

I am very surprised at how slowly the 2013 field has developed so far. The big logjam is whether there will be a race for both offices or just one.

[Stephen Spiker]

I think Obenshain has the advantage in either a primary or a convention. And I think Stewart is likely to get in the race, and keep a hold of PWC voters, which is Fimian's only power base.

But to go back to an earlier point, what is Fimian's rationale for a run at LG? At least when he was running for Congress, it was an "outsider" run, someone who hadn't been in politics, and he made a big deal about how few CPAs were in Washington. What's the desire to become LG? Does he think he want to become Governor now, or does he just want to run for something?

I know I'm biased as a 2010 Herrity supporter and someone who is leaning heavily towards Obenshain (but waiting for the field to fully develop), but it's an honest question to ask, and even more pertinent if he's going to follow the usual campaign model of endlessly smearing his primary opponents. It'd be nice to know what his reasons are before good Republican names get dragged through the mud.

[Bwana]

Chris inaccurately labels GOP doings in the LtGov realm as goofy. In fact, the selections were quite logical and share certain qualities...and I speak as someone who was around during these contests.

Joe Canada got the nod over Main Street candidate Walter Craigie (sp?) because Joe could actually speak to crowds while Walter's sole qualification was his ability to raise money-and the delegates did not like being dictated to.

Nathan Miller got the nod because the Main Street candidate Herb Bateman still had the scent of Johnny Come Lately to him and because he regularly insulted Guy Farley adn his delegates-and when they got the chance they stuck it to him. Bateman had a great shot at the Gubernatorial nod over the not universally loved Marshall Coleman, but Herb refused to run unless he could be guaranteed a primary process.

Mike Farris won as an unapologetic conservative over an establishment candidate who was not universally loved or admired, and delegates were in a combative mood after the sweep in 1989 and the horrendous Democratic Gen Assemb gerrymander in 1990.

The consistent point, beyond the fact that all were chosen in conventions? The Lt Gov office, because it has such limited responsibilities, is a perfect place for delegates to vote on the basis of things other than elected or professional experience. It is the perfect place to cast a vote that reflects their personal preference, especially in a field where other offices are unopposed or there is only a single, widely supported candidate in the field.

In that light, it really is anyone's guess what happens in 2013. Fimian can point to an ability to raise money and strong NoVA presence, Obenshain to elected experience, being point man on a variety of issues in the Senate, and a long time family presnce in the RPV.

If Fimian really expects to run for LtGov in 2013, he better have his state PAC cranked up and donating money...lord knows Obie will...

[Chris]

@Bwana, I guess goofy was the wrong way to describe it. I think we got to the same conclusion, you just explained it better. LG is the place where Republicans generally vote exactly the way they wont too because candidates generally are more partisan/ideological (?) because the jobs requires no set responsibilities.

@Spiker, its a fair question. I honestly don't know. He could make the case, like he did in 2010, about running against the establishment and all. But Obenshain is hardly apart of the Richmond estalbishmnet. I don't think Fimian has any concievable way of getting around Mark. Herrity was sort of a perfect foil for what Fimian was saying and the mood of the electorate, but he can't use that against Obenshain. There are very few senators more conservative or with a better record than Mark Obenshain.

The interesting part will come if Cuccinelli does challenge Bolling, and AG is suddenly open. That is the office Obenshain has been gunning for all along. If that is the case, Fimian has an easier path with his money and tea party cred.

[Boris Paterno]

I was hoping Fimian would hang around and kick Herrity's butt a few more times.