Thoughts On 2011 Primaries

Candidates with money:  What do Jeff Frederick, Miller Baker, Jason Flanary, and Barbara Favola all have in common?  Access to money and an ability to fundraise competitively.  They all got money in different ways, but they got it.  The only candidate to break this trend was John Stirrup, but he lost for other reasons.  Candidates like Scott Martin and Tito Munoz tried to run shoe-string campaigns and could never do more than activate their core supporters.  As always, money talks but it’s also how you spend your money.  All four campaigns showed that spending wisely ensure victory.

There is going negative, and then there is going negative.  John Stirrup and Tito Munoz were running against candidates that did have some negative vulnerability based on some of the past.  Jeff Frederick is not beloved across the Republican Party and his time as RPV chairman was controversial.  Dick Black angers as many Republicans as he makes happy, and was defeated for reelection for a reason back in 2005.  Instead of playing it smart and running negative mailers that were more nuanced in their criticism, they swung wildly.  Munoz’s campaign was clearly taken over by many of George Allen’s political hands, and there is a story there.  Munoz was all over the place and failed to stay on his basic message as to why he should be elected.  He had a tremendous story to tell about himself and what his election would mean for Virginia and the party as it reaches out to the Hispanic community, one that is fertile ground for the GOP.  Stirrup found an innocuous issue that nobody really cared about and they went crazy, comparing Black to Pelosi and Obama.  Ridiculous.  Compare that to Jason Flanary, whose negative campaign instead played on a lingering doubt already around Steve Hunt, that he had had his time and did not have a good win-loss record.

What were George Allen and Pat Herrity thinking?  Why would they jump on the Tito Munoz bandwagon?  Neither had anything to gain from the outcome of this race, and if anything Allen’s endorsement energized Frederick even more.  And I still can’t figure the Herrity endorsement out – other than his business allies don’t want Frederick in the senate.  But Herrity has no real pull in that district and was smoked in Prince William County during his primary.  Meanwhile, a guy like Steve Hunt is left hanging after a year earlier he stuck his neck out for Herrity big-time in supporting him and trying to convince conservatives fleeing to Keith Fimian that Pat is pro-life.  Now I get that Flanary was part of Herrity’s operation too; but Steve really stuck by him and didn’t get the same respect back.  As for Allen, I wonder if this is a sign of weakness in his operation.  Could they vulnerable from a challenge out of Prince William – Stewart and Marshall come to mind – once these off-years are over? 

Did Keith Fimian help himself?  Both Miller Baker and Jeff Frederick are in tough but winnable races.  Remember, if the GOP takes back the state senate suddenly congressional redistricting looks a lot different.  Annandale and parts of Woodbridge may suddenly not be in the 11^th anymore while perhaps, as a friend suggested to me, Bull Run is added?  Fimian clearly wants to run for something again – and I think he really wants this congressional seat if he can get it.  And its not unprecedented for a candidate to lose a couple of times before wining – Newt Gingrich is the best example of that, and it took Lou Barletta three tries in PA to beat Paul Kanjorski.  So it’s possible.  But if Frederick and Baker are elected, we will win the State Senate.   

Janet Oleszek is running for office again.  Yes!

Comments

[Stephen Spiker]

There's a difference between an endorsement and lending someone your political machine. Sharon Bulova endorsed, and lent her machine, to Chris Wade. I'm not sure about the involvement of George Allen in Tito's race, but he at least appeared at multiple events and gave money.

Keith Fimian and Pat Herrity sent an email.

Clicking "send" on those emails will have zero impact on their respective positions in Fairfax and in future races.

And Keith is running for LG, not Congress.

[D.J. McGuire]

Pat Herrity's move, such as it was, could have been predicted the moment Tom Davis endorsed Frederick.

Lest we forget, Davis slammed Herrity's dad in the 1991 GOP primary for Fairfax Board Chair - ending Jack Herrity's attempted comeback in painful fashion.

I doubt this was the *only* reason Herrity came out for Munoz, but I refuse to believe it had no impact.

[TeaPartyPatriot]

It had a dramatic impact on all the parts of Springfield that Tito would have represented......oh wait.

It had no impact and to say what you did DJ, shows how little you know about politics.

[From Fairfax Station]

Saying that hitting "send" on those endorsement emails had no impact on the outcome of the race would be accurate.

Saying it will definitely have no impact on the endorser to endorse in a competitive primary is a little premature.

Supporters of the guy you endorsed don't always adequately appreciate an endorsement, while supporters of the guy you didn't endorse don't always forget.

[Tom Brady]

however, liars like keith fimian and dumbo hugo, who told everyone i talked to said they were staying out of the 39th, and then jumped in to support baker did have an impact I believe. Mostly they don't, i agree. oh well, establishment lies all the time and 4% of the voters got what they deserve. so long senate, so long VP for BM.

[Riley]

TPP,

D.J. probably knows a whole lot more about politics than you do. Plus he was Tea Party before there ever was a Tea Party.

[TeaPartyPatriot]

Riley, the fact that no one yet on this blog with the exception of Spiker (because he knows better) on why Pat endorsed in this primary shows how ignorant you are of political history in Virginia. Now thats a fact.

[NoVA Scout]

I was surprised by the Davis endorsement of Frederick and there may be something to the idea that the Herrity position was a reaction to that based on past Davis/Herrity dynamics. However, I would think that it would be very hard for any mainstream Republicans to be enthusiastic about Frederick after his record as RPV Chairman. The youngster was clearly shown to be an incompetent in that role and did some damage to the Party there. I don't see anyone not blessed with a very short memory finding much enthusiasm for this candidate. Then again, memories in local Virginia politics can be very, very short if the buzzwords are right.