Seven races will decide who controls the Virginia State Senate, and among them every single section of the state is in play from high tech Northern Virginia to rural Southside and all round. So I've decided to throw together a quick list of the seven races that will decided the Virginia Senate. I've spent some time trying to get a handle of races in other parts of the state and this is what I've got.
1. SEN-22: Tom Garrett (R) vs. Bert Dodson (D). I heard Shaun Kenney talking about this race as perhaps the best bell-weather in the state. Garrett won a come-from-behind win in a five-way primary, largely based on Ken Cuccinelli's endorsement (I believe Garrett was the only county GOP prosecutor who endorsed him). Dodson is an exterminator who has been able to raise a ton of money. This seems like a true toss-up because while the district leans R, there is a pretty sizable black vote in there as well that could help boost Dodson in a low-turnout race if he can get his vote out. Democrats are pivoting on this race to help build their defenses. This will be one to watch.
2. SEN-20: Sen. Roscoe Reynolds (D) vs. Sen. Bill Stanley (R). This is our only incumbent vs. incumbent race. Stanley fell on his sword for the GOP this cycle, as one of the Southsideseats moved up to Northern Virginia and Stanley was put into a district with Ralph Smith. A confab led to Smith getting his district while Stanley chose to fight Reynolds, an entrenched incumbent. But Stanley has been running very hard and has gotten the full-throated support of every single Republican who matters. Stanley is for real if your a conservative like me. Reynolds is entrenched, but the political landscape in Southside and Southwest is changing. For a long time it remained Democrat on a local level while voting Republican on a national level (there is a long history of that in Virginia) but that era of ticket splitting is ending as the two parties have become more stratified. Stanley has stayed with Reynolds in the money race, and the potential spoiler of Jeff Evans has proven to be a flop. This race will be a battle of the changing local landscape in this region of the state versus an incumbent who is well-known and well-liked perhaps meeting his end because of outside forces he has little control over.
3. SEN-13: ex-Del. Dick Black (R) vs. Shawn Mitchell (D). Like the 22nd, this is a district that Democrats are building their defense of the Senate on. Black won a bruising primary against John Stirrup and Bob Fitzsimmonds, while Mitchell didn't have to do that and has been embraced by the Democrats across the state. Black comes with some baggage. A social conservative to his core, he has been controversial in his career that has had ups and downs. Chief among the downs are his losing reelection in 2005 to David Poisson, handing out plastic fetuses, and then trying lamely to run for the 1st district congressional seat by renting an apartment in Fredericksburg. Mitchell and the Democrats have been pounding Black on his past and Mitchell's "small business owner" background. But this might be Dick Black Version 2.0 this year. He won his primary not by slashing to the right and attacking his opponents, but rather with a stead head-down focused campaign. That has maintained itself into the general where Black is relying on his pro-life, Cuccinelli-conservative army but has run a quiet and effective race mimicking the old football adage "three yards and a cloud of dust." Mitchell and the Democrats are waiting for Black to say or do something outrageous to turn this race around, and thus far he hasn't. He's been a quieter Dick Black, and a more effective campaigner sticking to less controversial social issue. Still, Black's reputation is what it is and this race bears watching.
4. SEN-38: Sen. Phil Puckett (D) vs. Adam Light (R). Puckett has been lumped together with Reynolds, because they both face a similar challenge. The anti-Washington, anti-Democrat/Obama feeling is so white hot in parts of rural Virginia that Puckett, like Reynolds, could fall without having actually done anything to deserve it. Puckett and Reynolds remind me of Jay O'Brien and Jeannemarie Davis in that they didn't actually do anything to deserve to not be reelected, but the mood in Northern Virginia was SO anti-Bush they couldn't overcome it. And like O'Brien and Davis, Puckett and Reynolds have very good challengers. For Puckett, its businessman Adam Light, who has been running a long time for this seat. Light has been blatant in attack Puckett as a Democrat, the party of Obama. Puckett has gone so far as to say he won't vote for Obama in 2012. One thing I've learned is that a candidate is in trouble when they are forced to separate themselves like that from the President. Puckett could still win, but Light so far hasn't made any major mistakes and has stayed focused. He has the full support of the party. And worked against Puckett too is the changing political scene in Southwest where we have seen in the elections of Del. Will Moorefield ('09) and Rep. Morgan Griffith ('10) the ability of strong GOP challengers to knock off incumbent Democrats in Southwest. Griffith's win over RickBoucher probably causes Puckett nightmares.
5. SEN-39: Sen. George Barker (D) vs. Miller Baker (R). This is a story of an incumbent being too cute by half. Sen. Barker defeated Jay O'Brien four years ago, and one of the reasons he did it was because he worked like a maniac on the doors. He worked so hard O'Brien didn't realize it until too late. The closeness of the election probably spooked Barker so he insisted, like so many other Democrats in Fairfax did, to slice up the Arlington/Alexandria region to help him. But what he did was sacrifice so many of those neighborhoods he walked and won-over himself to get Alexandria. So now, for much of this district, its running like an open race. Barker essentially sacrificed his incumbency for the raw numbers he hopes he gets. What made me realize this is such a race is that last weekend I went to Alexandria to visit a friend and there were signs that read "BARKER not BAKER." If he needs those signs in Alexandria, that's trouble. And combine that with what a tremendous candidate Miller Baker has turned into makes this interesting. Baker has national conservative connections through Citizens United and from the intel I've gotten, his campaign is phenomenal. West of 95, there are a lot of GOP votes and if Barker is having to waste time introducing himself to his base east of 95, Baker suddenly has an advantage. This is a true toss-up and might even be starting to favor Baker.
6. SEN-17: Sen. Edd Houck (D) vs. Bryce Reeves (R). I think this is the true bell weather race and will decided if the GOP maybe gets 1 or 2 seats versus a bigger wave. Houck, like Reynolds, is an entrenched incumbent in a district and area of the state that the GOP has made big gains. He's been around forever and has deep roots where a lot of folks know him (my in-laws live in this district). He's a powerful senator, but has done a lot to anger conservatives by shooting down school choice bills among other things. Reeves has been embraced by every faction in the state and has been helped (like Stanley) by everyone big GOP name out there. He's hung in there as far as money is concerned, though Houck still leads. If this becomes a wave election where national issues creep in like they did in 2007, Houck could be in serious trouble. It is this district more than any other where we will see the tide of strong incumbency slam into the tide of a more conservative anti-Democrat mood crash into each other.
7. SEN-36: Sen. Toddy Puller (D) vs. ex-Del. Jeff Frederick (R). Like Barker, the Democrats got too cute in this race. They did everything they could to redistrict out more moderate Republicans like Jay McConville and Chris Braunlich, wrongly thinking they would be more dangerous. Instead, they opened it up for Frederick; who everyone will admit is an absolutely tireless campaigner who represented much of this reconfigured district in the House. Jeff has won elections three times within this district and each time against very credible Democratic opponents he has simply just outworked. The unspoken issue in this campaign is physical - Sen. Puller unfortunately has a medical affliction that simply makes it hard for her to physically campaign and keep up with Jeff in voter contact and door knocking. In turns out, Jeff is the perfect candidate to run against Puller. Republicans of all colors have rallied around him, as if his tenure at RPV never happened. The Democratic parts of this district in Woodbridge is Jeff's home base, nullifying some of Puller's regional advantages. The irony is that Bob McDonnell's fortunes depend on flipping the Virginia Senate and Frederick is a key race, even though it was Bob himself that engineered Jeff's ouster at RPV.
Honorable Mention: SEN-6 Northam vs. Loyola, SEN-19 Smith vs. Bell II, SEN-21 Edwards vs. Nutter, SEN 31 Favola vs. Merrick, SEN-37 Marsden vs. Flanary.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Even though I have two Northern Virginia races on here and Northern Virginia is my wheelhouse, the key for both parties are down state. For the Democrats to keep the Senate they need to defend their Southwest seats (Puckett and Reynolds) and need to have Shawn Mitchell or Bert Dodson to win. That four corners defense would be hard for the GOP to crack, or even just three. But if Stanley, Light, Black, and Garrett all win . . . suddenly the Demsare down two and two potential pickups/key holds are gone as well, then it could be open season. I see the key to both parties winning this election going through 22, 20, 13, and 38.
I even see Barker not Baker signs on Route 50 in the Fair Oaks area, nowhere near the 39th District. While we're at it, we really want to get rid of Chap!
By the way, it's bellwether, not bell-weather.
Posted by: Isophorone | October 23, 2011 at 07:24 PM
This goes to show how hard Republicans are fighting inside the Beltway: they actually think Barker's district contains part of Arlington!
You say that Barker "insisted, like so many other Democrats in Fairfax did, to slice up Arlington county to help him." But as far as I can tell, the only Senate or House Democrat whose district was pulled into Arlington (and whose district didn't already include Arlington) was Janet Howell.
Source: redistricting.dls.virginia.gov
Posted by: frankoanderson | October 23, 2011 at 10:16 PM
lol @ frank. Yeah, he took parts of Alexandria, not Arlington. The Barker not Baker signs are all up and down Duke & Van Dorn.
Posted by: Another Chris | October 24, 2011 at 06:03 AM
yeah to be honest, Barker's district hasn't changed all that much, just trimming around the edges.
http://www.vpap.org/elections/district_redistricting/130
I do agree that the "Barker not Baker" signs don't really help him.
Posted by: Not Jim Moran | October 24, 2011 at 10:28 AM
My bad on Arlington - silly right winger of me I always put the two together. I'll correct when I get home
Posted by: Chris | October 24, 2011 at 11:15 AM
The only reason Barker is using those stupid Barker not Baker signs is he's afraid dumb dems might vote for dumb Baker, instead of him. Drive west of 123 into PW, and Barker signs are everywhere on yards. Strange how some of the houses and business I remember had right-wing Martin signs now have Barker... what's up with that? Do that many people hate Baker to switch parties? Strange also Baker never got any Gov money from Cox. I'd take him off your list and add Flannery. Those guys know more than we do...
Posted by: Tom Brady | October 24, 2011 at 02:37 PM
@ frank - Barker, Howell, and the Favola district all slice up Arlington.
@tombrady - Trust me, Baker is making real headway and Flanary isn't. Jason is just getting pounded with really effective negative mailers (I get them) and I haven't seen a good response, though he still has time. He better bc Flannay sold himself on knowing how to win elections.
Posted by: Chris | October 24, 2011 at 02:42 PM
Stanley is running a great campaign. The Senate needs more conservatives like him.
Posted by: Aaron | October 24, 2011 at 06:27 PM
@chris - You need help with your reading AND writing skills. Barker's district DOES NOT slice up Arlington. You can repeat it all you want, but it is demonstrably false. Favola's district already included Arlington. And I wrote that Howell was the only candidate whose district was newly pushed into Arlington.
Posted by: frankoanderson | October 24, 2011 at 10:46 PM
what about Mickey Chohany vs. John Miller?!?!?!
Posted by: aron | October 25, 2011 at 01:25 AM
Lets get one thing straight, Smith was not included in Stanley's district. Smith jumped over another district to rent a house in the 19th and planned on running against Stanley in a primary. I give Stanley a lot of credit, instead of fighting it out for a safe senate seat he did what was best for the party and ran against Reynolds. Though all of this I have gained an enormous amount of respect for Bill Stanley.
Posted by: Bob | October 25, 2011 at 09:57 AM
The 39th District (not Barker's) does not include arlington as stated. Alexandria yes. Merrick gets to have fun in arlington
Posted by: Tom Brady | October 25, 2011 at 10:27 AM
every 2 weeks.
Sections of the articles and forums - a lot of useful information
Little information on enterprise information systems such as ERP
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