State Of The Race

Mitt Romney, welcome to your worst nightmare.

The absolute worst scenario going coming out of South Carolina came true.  The Palmetto State is not for the weak at heart, and I think the reason that it is as important as it is has to do with that.  Not only is this evangelical and southern, it also shows your toughness.  Who can get nasty?  Who REALLY wants to win?  John McCain learned his lessons from 2000 and won in 2008.  George W. Bush earned his nomination here.  Barack Obama did the same thing.  Its a nasty place, a serene exterior that hides a vicious and bloody political history.  People aren't killing each other any more, but this is the state where candidates get to see who's tough enough.

This is, at its heart, Mitt Romney's problem since 2007.  He has tried for five years to rely on his dashing presidential looks, political and business pedigree, and make-everyone-happy style to win over the establishment players needed to clinch the nomination.  It's not so much that he's moderate in a conservative state, its that he's SOFT.  John McCain was a moderate but he fought hard and could get nasty when he needed to.  Romney even equivocates when he attacks his opponents (see the Santorum felons debate).  Romney has as many problems as McCain did going into the presidential nomination process and even bottomed out in a way Romney never has.  This isn't about answering Bain Capital or his tax records, its about the fact that Mitt Romney is a fundamentally soft politician.  He has done everything on the checklist to win the nomination but hasn't filled in spaces between.  Mitt Romney had two chances in the last debates to turn Bain around into a ringing defense of our free market system and he spent his life working to help company's create jobs and grow.  Romney needs to brand himself as the Turnaround Man, not a Coolidge-era pro-free markets candidate.  Romney needs to talk about turning around companies, turning around the Olympics, turning around Massachusetts, and that he will turn America around.  He just can't get the magnitude of his personal achievements out of his mouth ina  way to hold us in awe and its a shame, because he personal record is marvelous.  He's just SOFT.

For Newt Gingrich, he also needs to be careful.  Newt is a great candidate running from behind, but he's so far proven to be a terrible front-runner.  I would like to see someone put a graph together of Newt's popularity and its peaks and valleys compared to the time between debates.  Of all the candidates, he has taken those debates and turned them into a forum for himself to speak with America one-on-one in a way no other candidate has done.  Newt's debating skills and his willingness to say what so many conservatives want to here and say it un-apologetically has trumped Romney's conventional checklist.  I just saw Joe Trippi on Fox and he had it right, Newt needs to fly to Florida tonight and say, "Florida, I am here to give you a choice."  This was Romney's Waterloo four years ago coming off similar circumstances as he is now (without the NH victory).  Romney wins when Republicans sort of shrug they're shoulders and say "sure, what the hell, he's fine."  But when the base gets fired up by someone singing that old-tymereligion, he has nothing to fight it back with.  Newt does, and at this point he's had enough baggage to take anyone down and here he is, fighting on.  Newt has a tenacity that Mitt just doesn't have, and when it turns on Mitt doesn't have the personal history with the party to fight it.  But Newt has been shown to be a self-destructive candidate . . . but I just cannot fathom a way Gingrich blows this momentum.  But moving forward, Newt just cannot keep blasting media folks.  He needs to pivot this into something bigger, a broader vision.  South Carolina is one state where you get to ground n' pound a couple of media members and it works . . . but that won't play in Florida or Nevada where the state is a bit more nuances (if you will).  Newt's challenge is to finally take the energy he has generated and funnel it into a full message.  He hasn't been able to do that once in his career, and if he can do it he can win.  He can't beat Barack Obama by running against the news media.

Rick Santorum will have some serious pressure to get out in a way Rick Perry did.  Perry went to South Carolina and dipped his toe in the water, then saw the writing on the wall.  I think Satorumwill go to Florida and realize that perhaps discretion is the better part of valor here.  I don't even know where his support in Florida will come from.  But the problem with Santorum is that as much as many people want to dismiss him, he refuses to move aside and he will work three times as hard as you to prove it.  This might be the peak for Santorum realistically.  If you had told me Rick Santorum would have lasted longer than Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Herman Cain I would have told you you were crazy.  

Ron Paul.  What to say about my man, Dr. Paul?  South Carolina is not a state made for him, but Florida?  He could do some damage.  I'm beginning to think Paul might actually be hurting Romney moving forward.  Follow me here . . . Paul's support is driven by not only his outsider status but also his critique of compassionate conservatism.  There is some overlap with where Romney needs to go for voters.  In some ways, it's been Paul's dominance over the free-market defense within the party that has helped strip Romney of one of his bigger cards to play with conservative voters.  Paul also dominates the independents that Romney needs to win these open primaries.  Paul is playing the delegate game, looking to stay around long enough to get power in the convention.  There are a number of caucuses coming up in Maine, Nevada, and Minnesota and that is where Paul can flex his muscle and do serious damage to Romney.  He's playing for something greater than winning the 2012 Republican nomination . . . he sees a longer game for moving the party into the libertarian side through this race and handing the mantle off to his son.  What do you do against a guy that's running for something greater than simply winning?

Romney is in trouble here, folks.  He needs now to bank on Gingrich imploding.  Newt was always the most dangerous guy to run against him one-on-one, but the two other remaining candidates hurt him, too.  Santorum will remind social conservatives every day that Romney is shaky on the issue.  Paul will eat up independents and many strict fiscal conservatives that he could use to end around these guys.  And Newt on his best day can light the party on fire and hasproven he can do it.  Romney will need every single dollar in his bank, every big name endorsement, and every bit of his organization.   He will need Newt to fall in his face or say something stupid.  And he will need to toughen up.  Romney needs to finally show not only does he have organizational muscle, but that HE has muscle.  Romney has built a formidable machine, but he is afraid to use it.  He needs to get over himself.

Comments

[Let's Be Free]

Excellent observations. Romney is soft and doesn't and can't reach out to communicate, which means the whole I'm electable Mitt thing is probably a mirage anyway.

I've tried really really hard to get behind Romney for 6 months. I've decided he just doesn't have it. He is the push button, control panel MBA who is above it all, and doesn't get or understand on a grass roors level the power of free market economics and the underlying value production process. He just sees it as something that fits in with his system for keeping score.

[Loudoun Insider]

EXCELLENT post!!!

[Tom Seeman]

Pretty good analysis of the current situation in the primary, I think. Mitt Romney is in trouble, and Newt Gingrich has the momentum, and for the reasons you say.

A few comments:

"(Newt Gingrich)can't beat Barack Obama by running against the news media."

I don't see Gingrich beating Obama period. What we have to remember is that right now the candidates are only talking to the Republican/conservative base. Get outside of that circle and everything changes dramatically.

Let's take a look at the latest polling numbers. If you look at the Favorable/Unfavorable ratings as posted in the Washington Examiner for Obama and the top two GOP candidates here's what we have:

Fox News, 1/12-1/14:
Obama, fav/unfav, 51%/46%, +5
Romney, fav/unfav, 45%/38%, +7
Gingrich, fav/unfav, 27%/56%, -29

CBS/NYT, 1/12-1/17:
Obama, fav/unfav, 38%/45%, -7
Romney, fav/unfav, 21%/35%, -14
Gingrich, fav/unfav, 17%/49%, -32

PPP, 1/13-1/17:
Obama, app/dis, 47%/50%, -3
Romney, fav/unfav, 35%/53%, -18
Gingrich, fav/unfav, 26%/60%, -34

As the author of the Washington Examiner piece comments, "America does not love Romney, but boy do they hate Newt."

No kidding.

Don't think it's just the polls above that have Gingrich so far down, because the RealClearPolitics composite of polls
show Obama destroying everyone except Mitt Romney:

Obama v Romney
46.9% Obama
45.0% Romney

Obama v Gingrich
50.6% Obama
39.6% Gingrich

Obama v Santorum
50.1% Obama
40.3% Santorum

This has got to give even the most ardent Gingrich supporter pause. It's one thing to not have a high favorable as long as your negatives are low (meaning people aren't sure about you, the number need not add up to 100). This simply means you have to come across well the a vast body of undecideds. Hard, but hardly impossible.

But high negatives mean you have to first convince them not to actively dislike you, then second convince them to vote for you. This is not just hard, it's just about impossible.

The point is that once you get outside of Republican/conservative circles, Newt Gingrich is hated. And this isn't just a recent development; it's been this way since a year or two after he took over as Speaker.

Mitt Romney can't close the deal with the Republican/conservative base, and Newt can't close it with the independent swing voters. However, if nominated, most of the Republican/conservative base will vote and even campaign for Romney, if for no other reason than because he will most-likely pick a hard-right Tea Party type running mate like Senators Jim DeMint or Marco Rubio, or Representative Michelle Bachmann.

Newt Gingrich, on the other hand, will have the Republican/conservative base all sewn up if he wins. However, he will never win the independent swing voters.

So I retain my assessment of a few weeks ago; it'll be hard for Mitt Romney to beat Obama, very difficult for Rick Santorum, and impossible for Newt Gingrich.

[Tom Seeman]

Darn, the links I included to the Washington Examiner and RealClearPolitics posts didn't take. Apparently the comments here doesn't take html tags.

Chris, if you want the links please send me an email. Thank you,