MASON CONSERVATIVE

Romney Inches Forward . . . To A Brokered Convention?

What a difference 24 hours makes for me.  Yesterday I posted on Facebook and talked to a couple of friends that I was ready to get off this anti-Romney train because now that he won Michigan he should probably move forward.  Yet after watching some of the pundits and reading up on some of the reaction and analysis and I'm coming away thinking something different.

Romney has only moved forward by a few inches.  Super Tuesday does not look particularly friendly and if Santorum sharpens up, he could win Ohio.  From the recent polling I've seen Super Tuesday could like

• Romney:  Massachusetts (41), Idaho (32), Vermont (17), Virginia (49)
• Paul:  Alaska (27)
• Santorum:  North Dakota (28), Tennessee (58), Oklahoma (43), Ohio (66)
• Gingrich:  Georgia (76)

Most of this is based on polling . . .except for Alaska and North Dakota, where there is no polling available.  I give MA, ID, VA and VT to Romney because two are in New England, one has a huge Mormon population, and the other he has major institutional backing.  

I've heard murmurs that Paul could be a real player in Alaska, he finished second there last time around and he's more organized then ever and the tea party is fairly active in the state.

Gingrich looks to cruise to a big win in Georgia, which a whopping 76 delegates (a big haul).

Polling right now has Santorum winning OK, TN, and OH which could be important for two reasons.  If Santo wins Ohio it completely undercuts Romney's Michigan win and then some.  If he wins Tennessee and Oklahoma, he undercuts Newt's claim to the South.  Winning Georgia will keep Newt in the game if he wants too because of the amount of delegates he collects, but the next grouping of primaries (after Kansas) is Mississippi and Alabama.  Newt needs that, but if Santorum catches fire based on an OH-TN-OK trifecta he could take those.

The problem is, there doesn't look like there is a lot of Romney-friendly states after Super Tuesday and Super Tuesday doesn't look terribly hopeful unless he can take Ohio.  This is why Ohio is so important.  If you look at the states I outlined above, it looks a lot different for Romney if you add Ohio (and possibly North Dakota) to two other good delegate wins in Virginia and Massachusetts.  

I used to think the idea of a brokered convention was ridiculous, and maybe it still is, but if Super Tuesday goes at it could above where Santorum and Romney essentially run neck and neck across the country they could deny each other the nomination, or at least the delegates needed to secure it.  Something will have to give and the two big game-changers will be Texas and California, and who knows now when the Texas primary actually will be.  It also depends on one of these two imploding spectacularly or Newt suddenly rising up again.  Newt's problem is there no more debates.  This is going to be a very long haul and if we maintain the course charted before us, this could go on for a long, long, long time.  

What Went Wrong On Ultrasound And How We Can Learn

The biggest reason that this ultrasound bill blew-up in the GOP's face this past week was simple . . . the leadership and many many members of the General Assembly were too insulated in their core belief to realize what a dumb idea this was.  From elected officials to bloggers to some grassroots activists I know, there was near-unanimity that this should have passed.  In defending the bill, so many on are side put forth a strong pro-life argument and could even get nasty about it.  Here's the problem . . .

Most folks didn't look at this as a pro-life issue.

For the most part, conservatives have turned the tide on the abortion debate on the margins.  We've won the argument on partial birth, parental consent, medical standards for clinics, among other things.  But all of those were not mandating invasive procedures.  What we saw as a pro-life issue, most folks saw as government-mandated invasive procedure.  Women know what that procedure is, its not fun, and it is also expensive.  It is specialized, not something just anyone can do.  This isn't what were selling it to be.

I love my wife.  One of the reasons I do is because she has turned out to be the perfect sounding board for me on issues like this.  She's not particularly political, she doesn't have an ideology, she's just a hard-working pragmatic women who looks at each issue and each candidate separately from party loyalty or other such things that get in our way.  When I asked her about this she was horrified.  She said that these people had no idea what they were talking about.  I was already ideologically inclined to not support it, but she gave me a window into how the reaction might be. 

The problem is too many people at all levels of our party become too isolated within our world and ideology and it allows stuff like this to happen because we don't understand or think its an overreach.  But we should have.  It is a lesson moving forward, Republicans cannot become so isolated from reality in pushing these bills, and cannot be so arrogant with those who disagree.

The Front-Runner

The Return of Massive Resistance

A couple of things come to mind when I started reading about the Senate Democrats voting against the two-year budget on a party-line 20-20 vote that could, effectively, shut down state government in Virginia.  This includes schools.  Once again the Democrats of Virginia are practicing the politics of Massive Resistance.  Emboldened by Republican overreach on the abortion issue, Democrats have now overreached themselves in a pissy fit over not getting good committee assignments.

But the Dems ARE right, the Senate doesn't represent Virginia right now because if it did, it would be MORE Republican.  The Democrats drew this Senate map, the map currently represented now.  This is, in effect, their Senate.  If the map had stayed the same it might have been worse.  So complaining about how the Senate is made up is kind of ridiculous when they are the ones drawing the map.

I would also point out to my Northern Virginia friends that under McDonnell and the House of Delegates, NOVA is getting $42 million to help attract teachers and make-up for the high cost of living up here that keeps teachers away because of relatively low pay compared to the cost of living in the area.  The Senate finance committee included it in this budget.  Teachers unions are a crucial NOVA Dem constituency and are getting screwed by their own here. 

I've had my problems with Gov. McDonnell and the GA leadership this term, but Republicans better now back down an inch on this fight . . . put the pressure on senators like Colgan, Puckett, and Petersen who are the constant champions of "bi-partisanship" and working together, make them explain why our schools could be shut down and why our teachers won't get the competative pay they need.  Massive Resistance is back.  And our schools and services will get shut down because Dick Saslaw is mad he didn't get a couple extra committee seats based on a map he drew. 

The Repubs better fight on this, and fight hard.  Because if we back down and capitulate, we won't be running anything and the will of the people expressed last November will have been disenfranchised. 

Interesting Look At Santorum

Politico tells the tale of two Santorums:  The culture warrior and the Pennsylvania pol.

For a Pennsylvania Republican, and especially a social conservative like Santorum, constituent service, bringing home federal checks and trumpeting his clout was a necessity for political survival. It was part of his appeal to members of both parties in the Keystone State. But that half of his political personality — Rick the Rust Belt pol — left a trail of controversial votes and odd coalitions that are proving hard to explain to conservatives.

Virginia 11

Admittedly I have spent very little time focusing on the primary in my own congressional district.  Honestly when I saw the newly redrawn map, I felt the GOP in the Assembly - so willing to force women to have invasive ultrasounds before an abortion - completely wimped out in drawing the new map.  The 11th could have EASILY been made stronger by adding Manassas and Gainesville up to route 66 and dropping Woodbridge and Dale City into the 1st district.  Combined that with how the 2011 state senate races reminded us cocky Republicans that Fairfax is still very much a Democratic bastion.  I don't have real high hopes.

Of the two candidates I have only met one - Chris Perkins.  He came to a YR meeting and I got to chat with him afterwards.  He was okay, but was not receptive to hearing that a couple of us were real Ron Paul supporters.  His military record was on full display, perhaps even to the point where he used it as a crutch.  He hit the main points talking about supporting Paul Ryan's budget but he was really short on detail and heavier on themes like "service" and "duty."  He also admitted he worked for and admired Vermont Sen. Jim Jeffords, which is fine.  Maybe Jeffords was on to something way back when.  I would give him a 5/10.

Ken Vaughn is the other candidate and I don't know much about him other than what his website says.  So I am reserving judgement, though his promise to restore liberties and call out things like the PATRIOT Act and vow to cut 10% of the budget, including military, was heartening.  But I have never spoken with him or hear him speak so I don't know yet.

So why don't some of you help fill me in?  Who are these guys?  Are either of them for real?

A Echo, Not A Choice

Joe Miller's website has a good video of Reason editor Nick Gillespie talking about Mitt Romney's essential problem of being an echo to Barack Obama and Rick Santorum being an echo to George W. Bush.  The only real candidate who is talking about truly changing the system is Ron Paul.  And like Gillespie admits, I have no delusions that Paul will be the GOP nominee but its an important campaign to be apart of because this is where the Republican Party will truly reinvent itself.  

I do believe that both Romney and Santorum have admirable qualities . . . I especially have a soft spot for Santorum because I went to the same church as him for awhile and know what a good man he is.  But neither are true vessels of conservative change, and Santorum himself has been hostile to libertarianism within the Republican Party.  Normally I would probably go with Romney over Santorum but I cannot get past Romneycare and the imposition of government into health care.  Its this attitude why I'm so supportive of people like Cuccinelli and Marshall here in Virginia, because they represent such a change from the Republican status quo.  It is a painful process that I find myself in that as abhorrent as it is to admit, if the choice is between Romney and Obama I honestly don't understand what the *real* choice will be?  I understand that the generic issues on the margins will be in contrast, but what will really change?  From Bush to Clinton to Bush to Obama, what has really changed in this country besides more of our liberty being taken away, more of our freedom being taken away, and more and more government.

How Is This Not Government Mandated Health Care?

I'm as pro-life as they come, but how is THIS not a government intruding on not only our health care but women's bodies?  We should all fight for life but government should never ever mandate anyone go through anything intrusive or invasive to their bodies.  If they can do this on abortions, what happens next?  What precedent does it set?  What the hell is the point of this bill anyways?

A VP Dark Horse

This isn't such a bad idea actually . . . Washington Rep. Cathy McMorris Rogers:

First elected in 2004, McMorris Rodgers is now in her second term as vice chairman of the Republican Conference, which makes her the highest-ranking Republican woman on Capitol Hill. She has built a significant amount of behind-the-scenes clout, and has become one of her party’s most influential leaders on issues like international bailouts, earmark reform and the fight against Obamacare.

McMorris Rodgers also has the kind of compelling life story that political operatives always look for. The daughter of produce farmers who operated a fruit stand, she was the first member of her family to attend college. She earned her MBA from the University of Washington in 2002. By the age of 24, she was a member of the state House of Representatives.

Married to a retired U.S. Navy commander, McMorris Rodgers is also one of only eight women to have ever given birth while serving in Congress, and the only woman who has done it twice.

The Matter Of The Media And Media Matters

The Daily Caller has blown the whistle on how Media Matters systematically fed hit jobs to outlets like Politico, MSNBC; and columnist from across the print media spectrum.

HERE

HERE

HERE

I would be more angry if I was more surprised.