Romney Inches Forward . . . To A Brokered Convention?

What a difference 24 hours makes for me.  Yesterday I posted on Facebook and talked to a couple of friends that I was ready to get off this anti-Romney train because now that he won Michigan he should probably move forward.  Yet after watching some of the pundits and reading up on some of the reaction and analysis and I'm coming away thinking something different.

Romney has only moved forward by a few inches.  Super Tuesday does not look particularly friendly and if Santorum sharpens up, he could win Ohio.  From the recent polling I've seen Super Tuesday could like

• Romney:  Massachusetts (41), Idaho (32), Vermont (17), Virginia (49)
• Paul:  Alaska (27)
• Santorum:  North Dakota (28), Tennessee (58), Oklahoma (43), Ohio (66)
• Gingrich:  Georgia (76)

Most of this is based on polling . . .except for Alaska and North Dakota, where there is no polling available.  I give MA, ID, VA and VT to Romney because two are in New England, one has a huge Mormon population, and the other he has major institutional backing.  

I've heard murmurs that Paul could be a real player in Alaska, he finished second there last time around and he's more organized then ever and the tea party is fairly active in the state.

Gingrich looks to cruise to a big win in Georgia, which a whopping 76 delegates (a big haul).

Polling right now has Santorum winning OK, TN, and OH which could be important for two reasons.  If Santo wins Ohio it completely undercuts Romney's Michigan win and then some.  If he wins Tennessee and Oklahoma, he undercuts Newt's claim to the South.  Winning Georgia will keep Newt in the game if he wants too because of the amount of delegates he collects, but the next grouping of primaries (after Kansas) is Mississippi and Alabama.  Newt needs that, but if Santorum catches fire based on an OH-TN-OK trifecta he could take those.

The problem is, there doesn't look like there is a lot of Romney-friendly states after Super Tuesday and Super Tuesday doesn't look terribly hopeful unless he can take Ohio.  This is why Ohio is so important.  If you look at the states I outlined above, it looks a lot different for Romney if you add Ohio (and possibly North Dakota) to two other good delegate wins in Virginia and Massachusetts.  

I used to think the idea of a brokered convention was ridiculous, and maybe it still is, but if Super Tuesday goes at it could above where Santorum and Romney essentially run neck and neck across the country they could deny each other the nomination, or at least the delegates needed to secure it.  Something will have to give and the two big game-changers will be Texas and California, and who knows now when the Texas primary actually will be.  It also depends on one of these two imploding spectacularly or Newt suddenly rising up again.  Newt's problem is there no more debates.  This is going to be a very long haul and if we maintain the course charted before us, this could go on for a long, long, long time.  

Comments

[George]

Romney himself doesn't seem too sure he's going to win in November: http://cuttingreports.wordpress.com/2012/03/01/romneys-secret-restaurant-chain/

[Dan]

One can only hope that no candidate reaches Tampa with enough delegates to secure the nomination. For the entertainment value alone! This show is too good to end.

I'm old enough to remember the craziness of 1968 and I've yet to see a year to match that. But this one has potential. It's solidly in second place after 1968.

What do you see as the outcome if no candidate makes it to Tampa with enough delegates to win? Do you see a deal among two of the current four?

It's hard to imagine someone else who has White House aspirations in 2016 agreeing to fall on their sword and accept the nomination and the almost certain loss to Obama. That might help with the Senate and House races but what is in it for someone who has the chops to be president? They'd be blowing up their own future chances.

I doubt it will come to a brokered convention, but it sure would be every political junkie's dream.

[NoVa Conservative Footsoldier]

Many or most convention delegates are only pledged on the first ballot, meaning they become free agents after the convention deadlocks w/o a nominee.

Given who is likely to end up being selected as delegates in mostly grassroots nominating contests & conventions across the country, my guess is that a nominee like Sarah Palin or Bobby Jindal is far more realistic than a nominee like Mitch Daniels or Jeb Bush.

[NoVa Conservative Footsoldier]

That said... I really really don't think it would be Sarah Palin. I use her as an example for the type of nominee. Palin, in particular, is quite unlikely for a variety of reasons.