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October 25, 2012


Chris Morgan

There are still hearts and minds to be won over, though. I work out of a field office here in Virginia where we are working our tails off to reach out to the electorate. We are rewarding all our volunteers this Saturday with a free lunch featuring the guest speaker EW Jackson.

Bishop Jackson went to Harvard law school, too, but he thinks a little bit differently about the proper course for America. If you cannot join us for outreach activity, please do see Bishop Jackson speak. http://p0.vresp.com/MFVkQ5


According to what I see on RCP, Romney's ceiling is somewhere around 337 electoral votes. If a couple of "light blue" states turn into swing states, Romney's potential could be better than that.


"And if the night starts with Obama taking Florida and/or Virginia; this election is over before it starts for the President."

I think you are spot on. The story may be told on the Eastern seaboard. Romney is drawing to an inside straight and has many more "must win" states than the president. His path to 270 is far narrower.

You picked the right two East coast states to watch. It would appear that Romney has a slight edge in Florida. But since he can't win without it (in my humble opinion anyway) it could be an early tell of Romney losing. Unlike Florida, it appears that Obama has a slight edge in Virginia. If we get word that Obama carried Virginia we can all turn in early for the night because that would mean Romney is toast. Since polls close so early in Virginia this thing could be essentially over before a lot of folks even arrive at their respective victory parties around the country.

The president seems to have a small but durable lead in Ohio so Romney has no margin for error in all the other states you mentioned. His road to 270 is not an easy one.

The other East coast state you want to pay particular attention to is North Carolina. Today I see a slightly larger edge for Romney there than I do in Florida. But it is quite a small edge. I know the Romney campaign did that head fake about moving resources out of North Carolina and placing them in "more competitive" states (and then only shifted one guy!) trying to drive the narrative that North Carolina was in the bank for them. Don't believe it.

North Carolina is being worked extremely hard by the Obama campaign. At least as hard as 2008 and maybe harder. The ground operation is truly impressive. It may surprise a lot of people how that one plays out.

Don't get me wrong. I haven't bet beer on North Carolina yet. Whereas I have already placed my beer bets on Obama being re-elected and on him carrying Virginia.The larger point is that Romney can't lose Virginia or North Carolina (much less lose them both) and still get to 270.


I think Nate Silver's map is probably the best reflection of where things stand right now. I put both Colorado and Virginia as more of a coin toss than he does, though. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

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