National Polls or Swing State Polls?

. . . or, is there a way for Romney to win without Ohio?

It will be difficult.  Romney is making serious headway in national polls but the state swing state polls remain stubbornly out of reach for him.  Specifically he cannot make a breakthrough in Ohio and I think it might be gone because Obama has just tarred him with wanting to let the car companies die and with them these voters jobs.  To win, Romney needs to sweep the South, grab Ohio and win one more state.  That is a tough need to thread.  Even if he takes VA, NC, and then add Ohio; Obama still wins 272 to 266.  In my analysis, there are only four states left:

• Ohio
• Iowa
• New Hampshire
• Colorado

First, take all of this under the assumption that Romney takes Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia while Obama takes Wisconsin and Nevada.  That could of course not happen - certainly Florida and Virginia are very tight and Wisconsin is close as well.  And if the night starts with Obama taking Florida and/or Virginia; this election is over before it starts for the President.

First fact . . . if Romney doesn't win Ohio he's not winning anything.  If Obama wins Ohio, Romney would need a clean sweep of NH, CO, and IA.  So to win this, Romney needs Ohio PLUS another state out of IA, NH, and CO.  Ohio plus a tag team partner is the only way Romney wins this election, along with a complete sweep of the South.

Second fact . . . Obama has way more outs than Romney.  If you count the full slate of swing states as NC, VA, FL, OH, IA, WI, CO, NH, and NV Obama can afford to lose more of these than Romney can.  Obama's electoral ceiling is 347, Romney's is 285.  Of the states above, its fascinating to me that we might come back to where it starts.  After Ohio, I think the two biggest opportunities for Romney to win are New Hampshire and Iowa.  Romney has a tighter road to manuever right now, but the state polls in those states seem to be moving his way.  But not in Ohio.

Again, like every year, it comes down to Ohio.  Well, for Romney it comes down to the Solid South, Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Iowa.  He sweeps that then he wins.  If he sweeps that and loses Ohio, he wins.  Its an awful tough road to plow.

Comments

[Chris Morgan]

There are still hearts and minds to be won over, though. I work out of a field office here in Virginia where we are working our tails off to reach out to the electorate. We are rewarding all our volunteers this Saturday with a free lunch featuring the guest speaker EW Jackson.

Bishop Jackson went to Harvard law school, too, but he thinks a little bit differently about the proper course for America. If you cannot join us for outreach activity, please do see Bishop Jackson speak. http://p0.vresp.com/MFVkQ5

[Isophorone]

According to what I see on RCP, Romney's ceiling is somewhere around 337 electoral votes. If a couple of "light blue" states turn into swing states, Romney's potential could be better than that.

[Dan]

"And if the night starts with Obama taking Florida and/or Virginia; this election is over before it starts for the President."

I think you are spot on. The story may be told on the Eastern seaboard. Romney is drawing to an inside straight and has many more "must win" states than the president. His path to 270 is far narrower.

You picked the right two East coast states to watch. It would appear that Romney has a slight edge in Florida. But since he can't win without it (in my humble opinion anyway) it could be an early tell of Romney losing. Unlike Florida, it appears that Obama has a slight edge in Virginia. If we get word that Obama carried Virginia we can all turn in early for the night because that would mean Romney is toast. Since polls close so early in Virginia this thing could be essentially over before a lot of folks even arrive at their respective victory parties around the country.

The president seems to have a small but durable lead in Ohio so Romney has no margin for error in all the other states you mentioned. His road to 270 is not an easy one.

The other East coast state you want to pay particular attention to is North Carolina. Today I see a slightly larger edge for Romney there than I do in Florida. But it is quite a small edge. I know the Romney campaign did that head fake about moving resources out of North Carolina and placing them in "more competitive" states (and then only shifted one guy!) trying to drive the narrative that North Carolina was in the bank for them. Don't believe it.

North Carolina is being worked extremely hard by the Obama campaign. At least as hard as 2008 and maybe harder. The ground operation is truly impressive. It may surprise a lot of people how that one plays out.

Don't get me wrong. I haven't bet beer on North Carolina yet. Whereas I have already placed my beer bets on Obama being re-elected and on him carrying Virginia.The larger point is that Romney can't lose Virginia or North Carolina (much less lose them both) and still get to 270.

[A.G.Gilmore]

I think Nate Silver's map is probably the best reflection of where things stand right now. I put both Colorado and Virginia as more of a coin toss than he does, though. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/