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December 08, 2012

Comments

Dan

I doubt very seriously that Bolling will run as an independent. On the other hand, a great many Virginians look at a choice between the Cooch and TMac and feel like it would be preferable to have a railroad spike driven through their heads rather than have either of those two in the governor's mansion. So there may be an opening for an independent candidate to have a chance.

Obviously, Bolling needs to make a decision pretty quickly if he is going to go the independent route. Which means some serious polling and some serious conversations with donors had better be taking place right now. That is assuming that Bolling really has no desire to be a spoiler and will only run if he thinks he can realistically win a three way race.

I know you like Cuccinelli, but I think many of his fans are just a wee bit overly optimistic about what they view as the certainty of his winning next November. He could easily lose a two way race.

The very things that endear Cuccinelli to his base are the same things that will turn off a large slice of the general electorate. And his four years as AG have given those things a much higher profile than when he was a state senator. The guy ain't exactly mainstream. Virginia doesn't have a history of lurching to the fringe for its governors. Maybe that will happen in 2013. I wouldn't wager too heavily on it though.

I don't have any idea what percentage of the vote Bolling might get as an independent. Or if the three way split might be close enough for somewhere in the high thirties to be sufficient to win. It might be plausible. More likely Bolling would draw his votes in places where Cuccinelli needs a big margin to overcome Democratic votes in Northern Virginia. So he likely helps McAuliffe win.

What does Bolling have to lose? He was the good soldier and stood down for McDonnell. If he doesn't run and win this year he is done anyway. If he rolls the dice he might win the prize. It's not like he is going to have a chance in the future either way.

It's a win-win for the far right. If Cuccinelli wins they have their hero as governor. If he loses they can do their well practiced victim act and blame it all on the "establishment" and assert that the party will win if it just keeps lurching further and further to the right. Continue the quest for purity and purge the apostates.

Good fun either way.

John

Dang Chris....go eat a Big Mac and calm down...good heavens

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