- Who's In: Corey Stewart
- Who's Out: Keith Fimian
- Who's Next: Jeannemarie Davis, Jeff McWaters
So, where does this stand.
First of all, whoever runs for this office better be ready win and not play around. This is essentially a statewide election for the state senate so this is big boy stuff. This isn't going to be a year for someone to make some personal statement or to try things out. This election is arguably as important as the top of the ticket. The entire power structure of the General Assembly and Richmond is up for grabs in 2013 with all 100 delegates, the AG, the state senate via the LG, and of course the governor's mansion is up for a vote.
Corey Stewart is clearly all in. He has a full agenda and vision and a reason for why he is running, which is good. I like Corey a little less then I did last year, but I guess everyone will make their peace with George Allen at some point. But his record is exemplary and, to be frank, we need more county-level officials from Northern Virginia in Richmond. The problems is that, on a bi-partisan basis mind you, so many local NOVA officials hate Richmond and want nothing to do with Richmond. That causes a fundamental disconnect between Richmond and Northern Virginia. It has helped that Sean Connaughton has been working on transportation for Gov. McDonnell, but we need more not less. Corey Stewart doesn't just have a personal agenda, I like Corey because he brings a perspective that is not seen or heard enough in Richmond. We need people who hate Richmond in Richmond, because we have far too many people who like it down there.
His chief rival will be Sen. Jeff McWaters of Virginia Beach. The contrast between the two could not be more different. An intimate of both Gov. McDonnell and Rep. Rigell, McWaters is firmly in the Richmond leadership and establishment. He is everything Corey is not . . . deep personal wealth, serious Richmond connections, and friends in high places in the state party power structure. Stewart is the most "outsider" Republican candidate to run for statewide office since Jim Gilmore came out of Henrico County and stunned Steve Agee. There is a reason for that, and McWaters has the perfect pedigree for the kind of candidate that generally runs for lieutenant governor. Let me also point out that I do believe McWaters to be a strong candidate in his own right, don't get me wrong. He's capable. But he has a ton of help that Corey Stewart just does not have.
That leads me to Jeannemarie Davis. I want to make sure people understand where I stand with her because I've been very critical of the way she campaigned in 2007 and the subsequent political decisions of her and her husband. But Jeannemarie Davis is one of the smartest and hardest working legislators Northern Virginia has ever had. She was the rare NOVA politician who went down to Richmond, learned all the ins and outs, and fought like hell for Northern Virginia. Those old downstate barons could not stand her and were more than happy secretly that she lost to the affable Chap Petersen. But the problem is the enemies she made downstate, combined with the enemies she made among Republicans in Northern Virginia gives her a very narrow base of support even up here. There is still a strain of moderate Republicanism coursing through Northern Virginia and she will get that support. But I can't imagine her cracking 3% anywhere downstate.
And that is a huge problem for Corey Stewart.
Now I, of course, could be wrong I see this breaking down this way. McWaters will wrap up the Richmond establishment and the Republican Hampton Roads voters. Stewart not only needs to max out Northern Virginia but he needs to go to all the out-of-the-way rural, conservative parts of the state that have the same gripes about Richmond as NOVA does and talk about how as a county level politician he understands their points of view. Corey, by virtue of his background, will run against Richmond in anti-Richmond parts of the state, and McWaters will run in Richmond and on his experience. JMDD complicates that for Stewart, because Corey needs a solid NOVA vote and won't get it with Jeannemarie taking votes from him in Fairfax and Arlington county, and possibly elsewhere. She offers no threat to McWaters, but does to Stewart.
It has been told to me that, as far as the Davis's are concerned, they are in this race. Jeannemarie almost ran back in 2005 (I believe, or was it 2001?) for this office so she has thought about this before. The Northern Virginia party has largely moved on from Tom Davis and his control, so I can understand why they might miss it. But I cannot for the life of me understand why they think this is a good idea. There is just no plausible scenario for victory barring something unforeseen.
The X factor will be how these candidates migrate with Ken Cuccinelli and Bill Bolling. The natural lines draw would have a Cuccinelli/Stewart and Bolling/McWaters breakdown. If this stays as a primary (and that is up for contention) I suspect if Bolling wins McWaters will win with him, and if Ken wins Corey will win. Their views and their supporters are in sync with each other.
But the bottom line right now is that in a one on one, Stewart vs. McWaters is 60/40 Jeff (thanks largely to his money and connections to McD and Rigell), but with Davis in the mix it gives McWaters even more of an edge, and one I think that Corey cannot overcome unless she absolutely registers zero support. And trust me, I know Fairfax, and there are still plenty of people here who will support her.
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