MASON CONSERVATIVE

Convention 2013: Attorney General

The biggest winner of the SCC decision to switch from primary to convention has got to be Mark Obenshain.  Rob Bell has been working quite hard so far and has rasied a lot of money.  I saw Bell at the Fairfax County convention a few months back standing at the exit shaking hands.  

The difference in their messages also explain why one is more taylor-made than another.  Obenshain is running for AG as, in essence, Ken Cuccinelli's heir.  He plans on being a principled conservative willing to do things like challenge the federal government and use the office in a more philosophical and constitutional sense.  Bell is a straight-out law and order candidate.  His record on crime in the Assembly is quite extensive, and someone once told me Rob Bell hasn't met a crime he doesn't want to increase punishmnet for.  The law-and-order message was the tried and true way Republicans became attorney general from Jim Gilmore to Bob McDonnell.  It is a message that most Republicans support and is an easier sell.  Obenshain's more constitutional view of the office, more in-line with Cuccinelli, is probably more popular with the grassroots and folks that would take the time to go to a convention.  It is certainly closer to the liberty movement voters that are quickly getting into the process.

And what about John Frey?  It is undoubtable to me that Frey will really cause Bell problems.  A lot of folks don't know, but Bell has pretty strong ties to Fairfax County through his mother who is a local activist in the area.  Frey's campaign is supported by a lot of the in-exile Tom Davis people and the Pat Herrity crowd (they overlap).  Frey has been around Fairfax politics for a long time and is well known in courthouses across the commonwealth.  These people would have been logical Bell supporters, as far as I can tell (though not to a man of course).  Some are equating him to Dave Foster but I think that is selling Frey a bit short.  He's in his third 8-year term as Fairfax County Clerk of the Court, and is active across the state in the courthouse community.  He has a lot more statewide contacts than Foster.  But Bell needs every single Northern Virginia vote he can get to off-set the strength Obenshain will have in the conservative enclaves down south.

The other thing Mark Obenshain has that Ken Cuccinelli didn't have in 2009 was a more broad-based likability across the state.  Ken has never backed away from a fight, but hasn't always been popular with the establishment either in Northern Virginia or Richmond.  He worked outside of the Davis Machine and earned their mockery early on ("Kookinelli") and made waves in Richmond when he endorsed state senate primary challengers in 2007.  Obenshain has much more of a broad-based popularity among everyone in the party and has not stepped on as many toes as Cuccinelli did at the same points in their careers.  Don't get me wrong, Obenshain's record is great but his style is a littler more accommodating.  This is important because Obenshain won't motivate as many detractors as Cuccienlli did.  His daddy taught him well.

This race will not breakdown in the same geographical way the governor's race will (or even the LG race) because of the three both Obenshain (Harrisonburg) and Bell (Charlottesville) are not from huge population centers and thus are much more of a blank slate for voters in NoVA, Richmond, and Hampton Roads and you will see people backing candidates you might not think makes sense.  I suspect Frey might even do better than people think in the more rural parts of the state where offices like Clerk of the Court hold more sway.  

Right now, I give the favorite status to Obenshain.  I was told Obenshain stickers were all over the convention and I get the feeling the grassroots are more inclined to him, the kind of grassroots that show up at a convention.  But this will be a wide-open race.  It would be even closer if Frey were not in because Northern Virginia would be completely up for grabs.  Frey should do very well in Arlington, Falls Church, and Alexandria as well and if you combin that with strength in Fairfax and perhaps picking up support here and there where is contacts as Clerk will help, he could push this into a second ballot and then who knows what.  

Bottom line?  Obenshain is the favorite, Bell is incredibly hard working, and Frey will be more of a factor than people think.  A convention will help Obenshain mightily, however.  But Frey is a true wild card and nothing can be taken for granted.

Washington Redskins: When The Free Market Turns To Subsidies

I just cannot understand why Bob McDonnell and the Commonwealth of Virginia are basically subsidising the Washington Redskins and giving them $6.4 million in subsidies ($4mil from VA, $2mil from Loudoun county, and $400k from city of Richmond) for some newfangled idea to upgrade the Loudoun Redskins facility and move training camp to Richmond.

It is a bizarre move that is hard to understand.  First, let's understand this.  The Redskins is one of the most profitable franchises in sports.  The Skins and Dan Snyder are worth close to $1.6 billion.  They have just upgraded the Loudoun-based Redskins Park by adding a practice bubble.  They have a sh*tload of money and I don't understand why Virginia needs to be paying for things they can plainly afford.

Barton Hinkle has McDonnell's case for this:

Is there anything to be said on behalf of the Skins handout? Yes—and McDonnell said it in a recent interview. While conceding “it’s not the role of government to subsidize sports,” he argued that the Redskins generate more than $200 million in economic activity in Virginia, along with nearly $10 million in taxes. The Skins’ departure would be “a huge economic hit.”

Hmmmm. Spending tax money in order to collect more of it is the dubious rationale of those who have been in government too long. As for the economic benefits of sports subsidies, they are hugely overblown—as a library full of studies from sources as ideologically diverse as the Cato Institute and the Brookings Institution can attest.

Regarding lesser subsidies like the one going to the Skins, it is helpful to place them in the broader context of other handouts—such as the many given to Hollywood production companies (last year Virginia gave billionaire Steven Spielberg $4.6 million to film part of “Lincoln” here), corporate giants (e.g., the $6.9 million Virginia doled out for Microsoft), and smaller beneficiaries such as wine makers and beekeepers.

I get the rationale of trying to keep businesses in your state by giving them reasons to stay, and same goes for the new businesses.  I actually don't have as much a problem with some of the handouts to the film industry, wineries, and major corporations that have moved here from other states.  Its worthwhile for the state because they actually do bring jobs with them.  Lets be real, it is the government redistributing our money (dare I say, "wealth").  But I also understand how the real world works with governments competing with each other for businesses, and I like that.  

But the Redskins?  Where are they going to go?  Training camp?  This different.  This is not arguing for using state dollars to attract businesses to the commonwealth to bring tangible jobs.  The free market works both ways and we should accept that.  You can't on the one-hand argue for states competing with each other for businesses and then turnaround that throw millions of dollars at a sports franchise that is wetted to this area by its very name.  The Skins, in the past, have had training camp both in Carlise PA and in Frostburg MD and I don't think it broke Virginia.  Like Hinkle said, justifying tax subsidies to generate more tax revenue seems backwards in thinking.

This is probably an unpopular position but I am 1,000% against this.  The Redskins don't need our money, they have plenty.  The Washington Redskins would not break the economy of Virginia if training camp went somewhere else.  And if they leave Redskins Park because citizens wouldn't fork over millions to an entity worth billions and growing, well that's how the market works.  Virginia has been played by Dan Snyder, and played beautifully.  Its hard to drive on the roads I drive on everyday and justify to myself the Governor sending millions to Daniel Snyder.

I hope someone, anyone, in the General Assembly stand up to this . . . I have to say it . . . crony capitalism.