Richmond Times-Dispatch has a good peice up today on the increasingly bitter primary contest to face Senator George Allen in Novemeber. For instance, from the RTD:
During and after a televised debate last week, James Webb called Harris Miller "the Antichrist of outsourcing." Interrupted once too often by Miller, Webb told Miller to "shut your mouth."
Yikes. The continuing theme that runs throughout Democratic politics is playing out here. Miller is the insider's candidate, the movers and players in Virginia, the black political leadership--The Establishment Candidate. Webb is the swashbuckling, honest, independent, Vietnam officer who's impressive resume is tantilizing VA Democratic grassroots and blogger types. I wonder where Govs. Kaine and Warner stand on this? I would bet anything that Warner backs Miller deep down.
The RTD peice also suggests that Miller has the upperhand due to more money and and better organization.
This brings up more controversy on the blogosphere. Vince and Shaun Kenney have both put up Republican analysis of this debate. Vince thinks Webb is a stronger candidate, while Kenney warns us not to sleep on Miller.
Personally, I would rather face Webb than Miller. And here's why. First and foremost: money. Miller is a millionaire, and that can go along way towards ad buys, television exposure, radio ads, direct mailings, and robocalls. Miller presents a clearer distinction. Lets not forget that Webb endorsed Allen in 2000 over Chuck Robb, for whom Webb most reminds me of. Miller brings a career in Democratic politics and has a stronger ability to bring out Democratic voters--especially in urban black areas. Webb would have a harder time with African-Americans, given he served under Reagan and still claims Reagan as one of his heroes. And because Miller is the establishment, he will have all the perks of Governor Kaine and Governor Warner behind him. Webb is a one-trick pony, like a lot of Democratic candidates: its all about Iraq. Now certainly being against the Iraq War will help both Democratic candidates with their base, Webb lacks the broad Democratic past that Miller has. What is Webb's stance on the Alito and Roberts nominations? Tax cuts? Defense spending? Immigration? Is Webb pro-choice or pro-life? As a former Republican who endorsed both Bush and Allen, Webb will have a hard time convincing people he is different than Allen. Webb's appeal to many seems to be his past Republicanism. Which is weird.
Anyways, I would much rather face Webb than Miller. But I predict Miller will win the primary based on NoVa and the urban Richmond/Norfolk/Hampton areas. But any chance either Miller or Webb has of winning has been flushed down the toilet thanks to the bitter campaign not only between the candidates but also the activists. Can you imagine NLS writing anything nice about Harris Miller?
If you think Miller is a better candidate, then you should have yourself tested for mental retardation.
I am completely serious. I'm worried that your IQ may be below 70.
Posted by: Virginia Centrist | May 29, 2006 at 09:47 PM
Its right at 71, thank you very much
Posted by: Mason Conservative | May 29, 2006 at 10:06 PM
Interesting analysis. Since VA is an open primary state, I may actually vote one way or the other, but I'm having a difficult time deciding which Democrat I dislike least.
Centrist -- name calling doesn't really contribute anything to the discussion. Why not post some reasoning behind your viewpoint rather than just resorting to ad-hominem?
Posted by: Atomopawn | May 29, 2006 at 11:57 PM
I don't mind the name-calling. It shows that George Allen really won't have much of a problem either way if this is the level of discourse by WebbHeads.
ATOMOPAWN,
I encourage you NOT to vote in the Democratic primary if you are not a Democrat. Its none of our business, and we wouldn't want them to do it to us. All Republicans, PLEASE stay out of the DEM primaries.
Posted by: Mason Conservative | May 30, 2006 at 12:26 AM
If Webb wins, the money will come in from the national party. He doesn't have to worry about having a personal fortune to finance his campaign. It will be done for him. Also, you don't think that Mark Warner or Tim Kaine will help Webb? What's your reasoning behind that? You're also wrong that this is all about Iraq this year. That's part of it. The main theme in this year's election will be the gross negligence of the Republican Party in regards to budget priorities, oil prices, and Iraq. Your buddy Allen has hugged Bush pretty tightly in those areas. When Webb wins, Allen will have a tough time defending his record. Democrats smell blood in the water. I can hear John Williams now...
Posted by: The Ghost of Tom Joad | May 30, 2006 at 07:50 AM
Mason, I apologize. But I'm offended beyond belief that anyone could actually think that Harris Miller is anything other than a disaster in the general...
I'd be perfectly happy if you thought that Miller and Webb were both horrible candidates. That's a position that makes logical sense.
Atomopawn - I refuse to provide any evidence that Webb is better than Miller in the general election. Just on princple. However, if you want me to explain whether a red light means stop or go, I'll be happy to do so.
Posted by: Virginia Centrist | May 30, 2006 at 11:49 AM
MC - Quite right. I'd heard Virginia was an open primary state, but hadn't looked into it thouroughly. Now that I find that it's done on an honor system, I'll be keeping my hands to myself. This 'honor system' business seems to defeat the purpose of an open primary, though. It rewards those who exploit the system, since honest voters will vote only in their own party, but dishonest voters will vote twice.
Can anyone tell me the rationale behind the system? There must be SOMETHING I'm missing!
Centrist -- I'm disappointed that you've chosen not to enlighten us to your viewpoint.
I've seen many arguments for Miller (for instance http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/29/AR2006052901032.html an editorial by Marc Fisher) that seem to indicate he's a better match for most Virginia Democrats (not connected to Reagan, more strongly pro-abortion, sharper contrast to Allen) and very few for Webb. I would have been very interested in your viewpoint.
Posted by: atomopawn | May 30, 2006 at 04:36 PM
VC,
You don't have to apologize to me. I know your not serious. Don't blunt your personality, its the reason why I read you.
I do think both are bad candidates, but only in the terms that this is a BIG TIME election, and these guys are both state-wide rookies. George Allen is steeped in success in the Old Dominion. It will be very hard to learn all the ropes while at the same time taking on a primetime player in George Allen.
Whatever chance either one of them had I think might be gone because of how the activists are attacking each other. It will prevent any kind of reconciliation. Its just my opinion.
Posted by: Mason Conservative | May 30, 2006 at 09:33 PM