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September 29, 2006


Not Larry Sabato

Chris, this was a poll intended for Sunday newspapers, but MSNBC had to buy it after they reported on the results without knowing it was embargoed. That's why about 7 pm it showed up, with things still written about it like the internal breakdowns embargoed until Monday morning.

Not Ben

Spin, spin, spin. The Zogby poll is actually a Zogby Interactive poll, which is conducted over the internet. A couple weeks ago they had Webb up by a few points. If you believe there has really been an 11-13 point swing to Allen over the past few weeks, then that poll is for you.


MC: You don't need to attack the MD poll. You have a strong argument that MD is an outlier without attacking it, given that two other polls posted very different results which are similar to one another.

By choosing to attack the poll you reveal an ignorance about how these big polling companies operate.

As for the poll numbers. My perspective is that Allen is somewhere between 48-52, and Webb is somewhere between 42-46. This is great news for Allen but he is benefitting trememndously by being on TV basically all by himself (Webb's buys so far have been miniscule). He won't have that advantage for very much longer. Webb has around 3 million and will have the money to make a heavy buy for the last 3 weeks. And will probably step up his buy to at least somewhat more significant in the next week.

Riley, Not O'Reilly

MSNBC articles say that the Mason-Dixon poll is of Registered Voters while the other polls are of Likely Voters.

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