Polls

So we have three fresh polls to mull over.

Survey USA:
Allen: 50%
Webb: 44%

Mason Dixon:
Allen: 43%
Webb: 43%

Zogby:
Allen: 49%
Webb: 44%

So what are we to believe? One interesting thing to consider, and I know groans from the left will follow, but who contracted the M-D poll? MSNBC. Why is that important? In the past week alone every MSNBC show has had a segmnet on this, and the absolutley terrible Chris "13th Place" Mathews has run four major multi-segments on this issue. I guess its creating your own news.

What seems interesting is that Webb's number has never really changed. He's never gotten past 43-45%. Its Allen who goes up and down, and really, Webb can't win this election at 43%. Furthermore, Zogby has Allen with a full 13-point swing from their last poll, which unrealistically had Webb ahead with 50%.

So I think the truth lies with Survey USA, who have clearly had the most consistant polling. Zogby has been all over the place, and the MSNBC taint puts a question to the Mason-Dixon Poll. This has been a dirty, ugly election but it has not been one-sided. Allen has been able to swing back and connect every time the Webbheads and their media allies lay a haymaker on him. Macaca was followed by Nancy Reagan, followed by the Navy Academy stories around women, followed by the N-word for, then the N-word for Webb. Its been dirty, but its been back and forth. For every good poll for Webb, their is nearly two or three that favor Allen. There is no denying that, no matter what size font you put it in. Allen is still winning this race, despite everything that has been throw at him.

Comments

[Not Larry Sabato]

Chris, this was a poll intended for Sunday newspapers, but MSNBC had to buy it after they reported on the results without knowing it was embargoed. That's why about 7 pm it showed up, with things still written about it like the internal breakdowns embargoed until Monday morning.

[Not Ben]

Spin, spin, spin. The Zogby poll is actually a Zogby Interactive poll, which is conducted over the internet. A couple weeks ago they had Webb up by a few points. If you believe there has really been an 11-13 point swing to Allen over the past few weeks, then that poll is for you.

[brimur]

MC: You don't need to attack the MD poll. You have a strong argument that MD is an outlier without attacking it, given that two other polls posted very different results which are similar to one another.

By choosing to attack the poll you reveal an ignorance about how these big polling companies operate.

As for the poll numbers. My perspective is that Allen is somewhere between 48-52, and Webb is somewhere between 42-46. This is great news for Allen but he is benefitting trememndously by being on TV basically all by himself (Webb's buys so far have been miniscule). He won't have that advantage for very much longer. Webb has around 3 million and will have the money to make a heavy buy for the last 3 weeks. And will probably step up his buy to at least somewhat more significant in the next week.

[Riley, Not O'Reilly]

MSNBC articles say that the Mason-Dixon poll is of Registered Voters while the other polls are of Likely Voters.