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November 20, 2009

Comments

Lauren Yoder

We are already recruiting a candidate in the 20th.

Not a Scion

Chris - As I understand it, all of those districts will likely be redrawn shortly before the 2011 election.

Which, as I understand it, is why flipping a few seats with appointments and special elections is so potentially important to redistricting.

If the Republicans control the process and decide not to opt for bipartisan redisricting, you're going to see a lot of Dem incumbents in Northern Virginia stuffed into the same seats, some of them redisticted into much tougher districts, and more potentially R-friendly districts in the region. The caveat is that an Obama Justice Department may well decide to challenge such a redistricting plan and delay the final lines until as late as August 2011.

If the version of how this is supposed to work that I'm hearing is accurate (it may not be), we could have a true cluster---- of confusion on where the lines are in 2011 as candidates are moving houses to run in districts that may then move again by the end of the summer.

The overall point, though, is that using the above stats is potentially superfluous - all of those districts, assuming they're not simply carved up, may have radically different lines by the time voters go to the polls to vote on their incumbents.

Brian

Chris -- I hate to bring this up, but your numbers reflect an important trend for 2013. Cuccinelli outpaced Bolling in nearly every area of the state. We are a few years off before this important decision will have to be made, but the GOP is going to need to think very carefully about nominating Cuccinelli for Governor in 4 years. Remember, Bolling had already run and won a statewide race. This was Ken's first shot and he ran better than Bolling throughout Virginia. Bolling did a great thing for the party by stepping aside for McDonnell, but I think he will need to do it again for Ken. The Dems nominated Deeds -- who was the "nice guy" who "earned" the nomination b/c he ran a good race 4 years earlier. Look what happened to him and the Dems. Candidates really matter, and Ken is a better candidate than Bolling. The voters understood that and so must we. I think we should get through the inauguration and let Ken be the AG for a while. But this decision is looming, and we can't be shy or timid in making the right decision about who will be our GOP Gub. nominee.

Chris

Brian, you can judge one race by the one four years before. I mean, McDonnell only beat Deeds by 300 or so votes in 2005 and then won the rematch by 17 points.

Brian

Chris: I agree with you to a point. But, I also think it was the judgment of a solid majority of GOP voters that Bob, despite the fact that he narrowly defeated Deeds in 2005, was a better candidate than Bolling. My point is that we must have that same conversation and debate for 2013. My view, and I suspect a majority of GOP voters agree, that Cuccinelli is a much better and stronger candidate than Bolling. I will conclude with the following: I like winning, and I don't like losing. Ken gives us a better chance of winning. KC for Governor in 2013!

Not a Scion

6 months is an eternity in politics, nevermind 4 years, and Ken is the sort of politician who appreciates that.

Besides, he's the rare politician who isn't in this business to simply rise the ranks. He wants to get stuff done. Attorney General isn't a bad place to do that right now.

PWConservative

The truth is that Bolling would be a much better Governor and Candidate both. People were looking for a race to spit their ticket on a Bolling was a safe bet to win.

Securitytouch

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A friend of mine just emailed me one of your articles from a while back. My bro read that one a few more.
Good Bye

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