« McDonnell Shows How Bipartisanship Works | Main | Wanna Know Why McDonnell Won? »

April 02, 2010

Comments

Jane Bigelow

Maybe the Democratic Women of Clifton will comment on this. Seems they are running their Astro-Turf Boiler Room Operation Again.

Hat Tip: InstaPundit

KNOXVILLE NEWS-SENTINEL: WHITE HOUSE SPAM. “We just received this Letter to the Editor submitted by a Tennessee resident. It’s deadwood spam; turf mail. Google various parts of it and you’ll get the White House Web site, AARP, the American Chronicle, Democratic Women of Clifton and my.barackobama.com. Oh, and you’ll also get marketingofcampaignemails.blogspot.com.”

local gop

Realistically speaking I would be utterly shocked if either Allen, Marshall, McDonnell, or Cuccinelli ran.

Allen: Like you said, he represents Old Virginia. And further, I think he secretly knows this. Besides, these days anyone who walks around with a can of Skoal in their pocket needs a serious reality check.

local gop

Marshall: Do the words "Delegate Marshall claimed that children with disabilities are God's punishment on women who receive an abortion," ring a bell? I can see the commercials now.

McDonnell & Cooch: Wont leave office for Senate. Cooch couldn't win state wide against an incumbent. Even with all the anti-washington sentiment, Webb will run up the middle and take swing voters that vote on single issues. Cooch has kind of shot himself in the foot for 2012 with all the anti-gay stuff anyway (that's how it is perceived).

not local gop

Davis could never win a Republican nomination in Virginia.

Prior to 2008-2009, I would have said it was at least possible (perhaps even likely at one point), but certainly not anymore. The things he's said about the party, the consevative movement, and the Tea Party movement on CNN, MSNBC, Politico, etc. would come back to haunt him.

You simply don't go on national television to trash talk your base and then ask for their votes.

He's done. Finished. Gone.

Dan

"Davis could never win a Republican nomination in Virginia."

That may not be accurate. Depends on the method of choosing the nominee.

The open primary would be more favorable to him. In a primary you not only have truly independent voters participating but both wings of the Republican Party, the right wing and the far right wing are on a more even footing. So he would have a decent chance.

In a convention he is toast. He is far too sane to win there.

By 2012 any comments made about the tea people are going to be largely irrelevant. That "movement" will be in the rear view mirror. Freedom Works and AFP and the other Republicans who created it will have likely moved on to a new strategy by 2012.

They will have great gobs of corporate cash thanks to the Citizens United decision. They will have plenty of resources with which to be creative. Their tea party toy will be very stale by then. Not likely to be a factor. If it ever truly was.

Lee Talley

Chris,

George Allen = Conservativism with no glue behind it. WHAT IN THE H#LL are you talking about! George Allen practically invented Conservatism based on issues and the "Big Idea".

Also in the scheme of things Senator Allen lost from on the field technical mistakes in his campaign not from Macaca as the general wisdom says.

You really think Bob Marshall has a chance. Ha, have you seen the petitions and groups ripe for any opponent of him to mine over his vile statements about special needs kids. Marshall may not even win his HoD seat back (I pray for a primary opponent). George Allen made some mistakes. Bob Marshal is just plain evil and a user. George Allen fought for our conservative issues with big idea's from when he was in College. Bob Marshall is just Pat McSweeny's lapdog.

not local gop

Davis has maligned not merely the Tea Party movement, but also the base, social conservatism, Sarah Palin, downstate Virginia, etc, etc. etc.

I don't think there will be enough cross over, even in an open primary, to make up for the anger the base has toward him or would quickly rediscover if a primary opponent simply replayed Davis's TV appearances in advertising or on YouTube.

Primaries, even open primaries, primarily feature the electoral power of a party's base. You cannot win a statewide primary in Virginia without the conservative base. There are too many of them.

Moreover, most of Virginia's electorate is still downstate. Northern Virginia is growing, but we are not the majority. Much of Virginia's electorate remains suspicious of Northern Virginia politicans of BOTH political parties and Davis is the sort of Northern Virginian who excites all of those suspicions.

We sometimes forget in Northern Virginia that despite our growing electoral power, the only Northern Virginians to win contested nominating contests in the past decade are Ken Cuccinelli, Leslie Byrne, and Don McEachin. Of those, only Cuccinelli won the resulting election.

Mark Warner and Steve Shannon both ran unopposed and only Mark Warner won the resulting election.

Meanwhile Terry McAuliffe, Brian Moran, Michael Signer, Dave Foster, Bob Marshall, and Sean Connaughton all lost to candidates from downstate.

In over 10 years, the only candidates Northern Virginia has successfully nominated and elected to statewide office are Mark Warner and Ken Cuccinelli. Both succeeded where all others failed because they managed to appeal to downstate voters (both of them on the basis of guns, among other issues).

Davis is no Warner and he is no Cuccinelli.

not local gop

The situation is even more stark if you only look at Northern Virginians who won MAJORITIES in contested nominating contests.

The only one do that in decades is Ken Cuccinelli.

If you want a preview of what a Tom Davis statewide nominating campaign would look like, you need look no further than the candidate Davis endorsed last year: Dave Foster.

Ron

You didn't want to include Bill Bolling in your poll?

Dan

I think the assumption is that Bolling will be running for governor in 2013.

The comments to this entry are closed.