2011 Senate Predictions

1. Mickey Chohany, R d. John Miller, D
2. Mamie Locke, D d. Tom Harmon, R
3. Tommy Norment, R
4. Ryan McDougle, R
5. Yvonne Miller, D
6. Ralph Northam, D d. Ben Loyola
7. Frank Wagner, R
8. Jeff McWaters, R
9. Don McEachin, D
10. John Watkins, R d. David Bernard, D
11. Steve Martin, R
12. Walter Stosch, R
13. Dick Black, R d. Shawn Mitchell
14. Harry Blevins, R 
15. Frank Wagner, R
16. Henry Marsh, D
17. Edd Houck, D d. Bryce Reeves, R
18. Louise Lucas, D
19. Ralph Smith, R d. Brandon Bell, I
20. Bill Stanley, R d. Roscoe Reynolds, D
21. John Edwards, D d. Dave Nutter, R
22. Tom Garrett, R d. Bert Dodson, D
23. Steve Newman, R d. Robert Short, D
24. Emmett Hanger, R
25. Creigh Deeds, D d.  TJ Aldous, R
26. Mark Obenshain, R
27. Jill Vogel, R d. Shaun Broy, D
28. Richard Stuart, R
29. Chuck Colgan, D d. Tom Gordy, R
30. Adam Ebbin, D d. Tim McGhee, R
31. Barbara Favola, D d. Caren Merrick, R
32. Janet Howell, D d. Patrick Forrest, R
33. Mark Herring, D d. Patricia Phillips, R
34. Chap Petersen, D d. Gerarda Culipher, R
35. Dick Saslaw, D d. Robert Sarvis, R
36. Jeff Frederick, R d. Toddy Puller, D
37. Dave Marsden, D d. Jason Flanary, R
38. Adam Light, R d. Phil Puckett, D
39. Miller Baker, R d. George Barker, D
40. Bill Carrico, R d. John Lamie, D

-FINAL:  Republicans - 23, Democrats - 17

-Some quick thoughts.  The only race I can't make my mind up is Edd Houck/Bryce Reeves.  Everything tells me that Reeves should win, but from what I've seen (my in-laws live in this district) Houck is fighting like crazy.  And I will never discount Houck's past election victories.  This area isn't where Southside and Soutwest are in regards to just turning completely on Democrats (which is why I picked Colgan, too) or the President yet.  Past service still matters andHouck (and Colgan) have deep deep ties.  But this is a gun-to-head prediction post, so I'm going with the home team and picking Houck.

-Then why am I picking Stanley over Reynolds but not Nutter over Edwards?  I worry about theBlacksburg base in Edwards' district for Nutter.  Even though Nutter works at Tech, college towns have a way of going D over and over.  Edwards should survive thanks to than.  As for Reynolds, he unfortunately IS in a part of the country where it is no longer a good thing to have a "D" next to your name.  Stanley is a rising star in the party and I think youth and conservatism is served here.  Its great that Reynolds has been there forever, but I don't see an anchor like a college town that Edwards has to save him.

-And yes, before people get on me about not knowing what I'm talking about . . . your right.  A lot of these races are choices I've made anecdotal.  Sorry.  

-In Northern Virginia . . . Baker and Frederick are going to win because they are just flat out better candidates than Barker and Puller.  They've worked harder.  Flanary has run hard, but as a friend of mine said to me . . . he's run a race mechanically sound, just as a campaign manager (which he is) would.  But the "art" of politics, if you will, might be a bit lost.  Marsden has been running just as hard, has a history of winning election after election in this district, and is just killing him in the mail.  Petersen is too tough in that district with his monstrous base in Fairfax City.

-In the end, Democrats are going to be kicking themselves over redistricting.  Instead of using Arlington and Alexandria as needless incumbent protection in Northern Virginia (Howell and Barker would have arguably been safer in their old districts), and they needlessly exposed Puller by throwing in Frederick's old stomping grounds.  The Dems could have carved out maybe two more seats out of Arlington/Eastern Fairfax.  They got too cute.  

Comments

[Robert Kenyon]

I thought Patricia had a great chance until this fumble with the mailer. As Herman Cain is finding out, you have to have a strong, professional political team. A shame.

On the upside, I think Culipher could still pull it off against Chap. I'll be voting early and hanging out part of the day at the polls for Jeff! I cannot WAIT to send Puller packing.

[anon]

Don't count Caren Merrick out! She will make a great Senator.

[Burberry Online]

http://masonconservative.typepad.com/the_mason_conservative/2011/10/seems-about-right.html