Winners, Losers, and Questions

Winner #1:  Bill Bolling - Remember, though he as McDonnell's "running-mate," he got elected on his own and constitutionally he doesn't answer to anyone.  He effectively controls the state senate so long as Tommy Norment can keep the boys (and girls) in line.  Which leads me to my next winner . . . 

Winner #2:  Conservatives - though the Senate didn't flip outright, conservatives Ralph Smith and Bill Stanley are now joined by Dick Black, Tom Garrett, and Bill Carrico.  That makes for a merry-band of mischief makers and, effectively, ending the days of the stodgy old Senate of Chichester and Potts is officially gone.  Old Bulls like Stosch remain, but with these six conservatives joining with the likes of Ryan McDougle, Mark Obenshain, Jill Vogel, Steve Newman, and others this is not longer the senate of old.  Good.

Winner #3:  Fairfax Democrats - Nobody was safe . . . Puller, Marsden, and Barker turned their reelections squeakers into laughers (though Barker's margin was Alexandria).  We all bought the notion of how hard the three Repubs were working, but Frederick got smashed in Fairfax. Flanary just couldn't get anything going past the margins, and Baker did well in Fairfax but couldn't overtake the 3,000 or so votes from Alexandria.  Of the three, its Marsden who should be the most vulnerable moving forward.

Winner #4:  Bill Howell - lost in the hubub of the Senate drama, the Republican picked up SEVEN seats in the House of Delegates.  Gone are Robin Abbott, Bill Barlow, and Minority Leader Ward Armstrong among many others.  It was a bloodbath, and the House of Delegates is resembling something close to the Byrd days (no, not that close, I know) but the disparity is shocking compared to how close everything else in Virginia is.  Bill Howell might be the most powerful man in Richmond right now.

Winner #5:  Partisan Redistricting - It worked . . . kind of.  The Senate could have been a whole lot worse for Democrats, but in the end Howell and Barker did enough to prevent an outright takeover AND lets be clear - the Reeves-Houck election will still have a recount so I'm not celebrating completely until that is certified.

Winner #6:   Phil Puckett and John Edwards.  The Democrats aren't dead yet in Southwest, and Puckett and Edwards showed that rural, old-school Democrats can still win if the race is localized.  Light threw everything at Puckett he could handle.  Now they just have to worry about these young delegates like Will Morefield and now Rick Morris.  But four years is a long way away.

Winner #7:  Braddock Supervisor John Cook and Del. Barbara Comstock - the last two Republicans standing in Fairfax that were in contested races.  Comstock was simply a better candidate than Danner, and her stock is rising.  As for Cook, they threw everything at him.  To be able to win twice now in Sharon Bulova's Braddock is astounding.  Its clear that Chris Wade probably would have beat Cook, and the Dems will again look back and wonder if nominating Janet Oleszek to prove some progressive point didn't just launch ANOTHER Republican star.  

(and since I've gotten to know a few of the Cook people - congrats to Kalia, Rien, Ben, and everyone over there.  Well done.)

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Loser #1:  House Democrats - Yikes, where do you start?  Your already in the minority, now your in the uber-minority and you just lost your leader.  Ouch, Mr. Speaker.  I expect, with a shrunken party down to the base, that you will see a more liberal and combative Democrat take the reigns in Richmond in the HoDs.  Watch for Del. Jennifer McClellan.

Loser #2:  Well I went one way, now to go the other, Fairfax Republicans - We were snookered again!  Every cycle we think it a breakthrough, and its clear that the McDonnell 2009 sweep was an outlier because Deeds was such a terrible candidate and couldn't connect to anyone up here.  There was also some internal stuff going on that wasn't helpful with Pat Herrity playing different sides in the School Board races (but that's a story for another day).

Loser #3:  Gov. Bob McDonnell - I'm going to catch hell for this, but expectations coming from the Governor was that this was going to be a banner night, a triumphant march to the senate on his way to the vice-presidency.  Not so fast.  Its kind of a half-win, nowhere near what was expected but better than what was potentially unfolding.  The Gov has more leveridge, but not much.

Loser #4:  Janet Oleszek - I pile on, I know.  But this is the second time now she's blown a winnable race for the Democrats, and it could have far-reaching complications.  Cook now has four years to cement himself in Braddock, this was the time to pick him off.  And he has options . . . you know he's in Dave Marsden's Senate district, right?  He could run for chairman, but who would want to try that?  Hell, he could run for Congress!  Both of her loses have been close, yes, but with the machine the Democrats have built in Fairfax Braddock district should be winnable.  Unreal.  I hope this poor women can now go off and enjoy her life and not be used by progressive hacks looking to score points inside the party and, in the end, blowing the entire elction.

Loser #5:  Chuck Colgan - Yes, he won, but he's won every election for forty years.  So now what?  He did all that and he's going to be in the minority again (for now)?  What was the point?  And the Republicans have a line out the door of candidates who could win that in an open race . . . namely Del. Jackson Miller.  I wonder now if Reeves hangs on that Colgan doesn't just say its over.  Who wants to spend the twilight years of their life in the minority?  I'm not going to say I predict his retirement, but I think the thought of ending up like Harry Parrish isn't far from his mind.  Colgan has served Virginia a long time, the man is due retirement.  

Loser #6:  Brian Moran - I bet they pulled down the champagne and tarp faster than the '86 Red Sox (or '11 Rangers).  Nothing has gone right since he took over as Chairman of the party, and though I'm sure he's protected by Jim Moran and Mark Warner, there is going to be some serious soul-searching among Democrats about their statewide leadership.  Warner and Webb were basically faceless in this election while McBollinelli was everywhere.  

Loser #7:  Me.  Its 1:00 am and I can't fall asleep.  

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1.  Where do the Democrats go for leadership?  State Party Chairman and House Minority Leader are all now in question.  Where was Mark Warner and Tim Kaine?  

2.  What does Bob Marshall do now?  Safely reelected, will he make the run against George Allen and really allow Virginia Republicans a choice and not a coranation?

3.  How is 2013 stacking up?

• GOV R possibles:  Bolling, Cuccinelli
• GOV D possibles:  McAuliffe, Petersen, Surovell
• LGOV R possibilities:  McWaters, Stewart, Fimian, Vogel, Obenshain, Hugo
• LGOV D possibilities:  Armstrong, Morrisey, Surovell, McEachin
• AG R possibilities:  Cuccinelli, Obenshain
• AG D possibilities:  Petersen, Herring, Shannon, Edwards

Have a great night!

Comments

[Another Chris]

Republican performance in Fairfax was an absolute disaster. There needs to be some serious introspection as to what went wrong and what can be corrected in the future.

It's my sense that performance in Arlington and Alexandria was worse than it should have been as well (worse being a relative term) although I'm not sure there what could be changed.

[Edtheman]

The Republican endorsed FC School Board candidates got crushed. Hard to believe Lolita came in 5th place...despite the WP and both teacher unions support. Again I offered my support in my precinct and was never contacted by her campaign. In my precinct the turn out was about 2 to 1 female. I heard over and over from women voters how negative the Frederick campaign was.

[SE VA MWC Alum]

I liked the humor in loser number 7! On a more seruous note I would think Warner is still a possibility for gov on the D side in 2013. Especially if Obama loses.

[Aaron]

Add Perriello to the Dem gov consideration

[Bwana]

Also, GOP-Corey Stewart/Lt Gov

[Bwana]

oooops...sorry, reading too fast...

[Anthony Bedell]

How can Fairfax GOP be a loser when we didn't lose any incumbents? Losing means we lost something and we didn't... we didn't gain anything for sure... but we didn't the Fairfax election was status quo... Dems held theirs... we held ours... end of story.

[Chris]

Its a reflection on expectations . . . Frederick, Flanary, and Miller were all, at some point, considered to be possible winners. Plus, we got swept in School Board races and the Dennis Husch beating was especially embarassing given expectations. And I think expectations were high because of what McDonnell was able to do in 2009. We came back to earth. Its just my opinion.

[Another Chris, ie the Chris from upthread]

Anthony,

I love ya'. I think you've been one of the best Fairfax chairs in recent memory and I was disappointed to hear you were stepping down today.

Nevertheless, I can't see how this is anything other than a loss for FCRC. County Republicans were on the verge of extinction after 2008 (60-39 Obama, Senate seats almost completely wiped out in 2007, down to a handful of delegates) & gained significant ground over the next two years - picking up the Braddock seat, coming close in the chairman's race, winning back several HOD districts, almost unseating Connolly last year after a bitter primary (+ McDonnell's outright win in Fairfax in 09).

This year's results are a pretty depressing setback. Perhaps Barker couldn't have been unseated with the Alexandria result regardless, but last I checked, Mr. Baker lost the Fairfax portion of the district as well. Frederick's Fairfax performance was abysmal. Flanary's might have been the least distressing under the new lines, but he still lost in what was supposed to be a good year. Merrick only got 53% in Fairfax. With her landslide defeat in Arlington it wouldn't have mattered, but if she had held her own there 53% wouldn't have been enough.

There were no net gains on the BoS & we couldn't break 40 in Dranesville. Moreover, our School Board endorsed candidates got slaughtered.

Again, it seems hard not to quantify this as a serious defeat.

[KingCranium]

If Bob Marshall is going to mount a serious bid, he needs to get going. I'm no Allen fan, but he's the giant in the field on the Republican side right now. The Obama team will pour tons of money and organizers into Virginia next year, and part of their strategy will include emphasizing that not only is the Presidential nominee too extreme, but so is the Senate nominee. We need to be united behind the candidate by the time that happens. I don't want to sit down to watch returns next year to see Kaine pull it out somehow.