(Note: This could all be meaningless. I've talked to very smart people about whether this will happen, and its about 50/50)
The dynamics have changed, that's for sure. Bill Bolling is now more than simply the governor's right-hand-man, taking meetings and doing ribbon cuttings. He's worked very hard these last two years, but much of his work has been quiet and most of the credit goes to the governor. Bolling made the decision to become McDonnell's partner at the expense of his short-term political future. In the last two years, he's slipped further back.
Ken Cuccinelli has spent the last two years making himself a national conservative star. Suing to end Obamacare on his own, taking on the global-warming crowd in Charlottesville, and advocating for every conservative issue imaginable, he has surged. But as Attorney General, he has no function within the General Assembly, and all he can do is essentially advocate and hopes that he is popular enough to sway legislators. That was enough for the first two years.
But things have changed.
Now, with Edd Houck's concession, Bill Bolling's one minuscule constitutional job suddenly becomes very important. Dick Saslaw and Tommy Norment can be very convincing men, and I think we will see a lot of 20-20 votes. Bill Bolling now has the practical power that Cuccinellidoes not to directly effect important legislation. He will be able to go before voters in a primary and say "I made that happen. I didn't talk about it, I am the reason its law." We are talking about important conservative issues like school choice and abortion that had been bottled up in the senate. And now that body doesn't have the fake-Republicans like Chichester and Potts who worked with Democrats to end stuff like that.
But this newfound power is high risk/high reward. If one law passes that suddenly becomes unpopular, that's just as much as a game-changer. He also has to balance his loyalty to McDonnell against his own future. McDonnell is looking for a national future, Bolling simply to become governor. What if those two are divergent.
For Cuccinelli, he now has to share the spotlight, so to speak. For the last two years, its been McDonnell and Cuccinelli in all the headlines, and now Bolling is moving back into the forefront. McDonnell is looking to run for vice-president, so on a statewide level Bolling will step up and in for him. Cuccinelli has a vast army of supporters, people who might not necessarily be regular voters, and they want to move with him. Bolling cannot match Ken's grand game, I don't think anyone can argue with that. What Cuccinelli, if he wants to run for governor, has to worry about is Bolling starting to win by headlines. Bolling can now become high-profile, and high-profile on issues that matter to voters in the state and issues that will be active in a statewide race. Ken's made headlines for battling the federal leviathan, but if Bolling can show he's done more practically he might begin to catch up.
This also has huge implications for what happens in the other 2013 races. The rumors of who is running for LG are huge: Keith Fimian, Mark Obenshain, Corey Stewart, Jill Vogel (though I hear maybe not), Tim Hugo, and Jeff McWaters. And if Ken runs for governor, we may get an AG primary between Rob Bell and Mark Obenshain. A lot of chairs on the deck are being shuffled and waiting.
This is why I felt Bill Bolling was the big winner two nights ago. Before, if Ken ran for governor I felt Bolling would be toast. Now? Maybe not so much . . .
Die Schuhe sind daher relativ leicht und bieten Ihren Fuessen einen angenehmen Tragekomfort.
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Posted by: wwoqbqjc | October 20, 2012 at 08:28 AM