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January 21, 2012


Let's Be Free

Excellent observations. Romney is soft and doesn't and can't reach out to communicate, which means the whole I'm electable Mitt thing is probably a mirage anyway.

I've tried really really hard to get behind Romney for 6 months. I've decided he just doesn't have it. He is the push button, control panel MBA who is above it all, and doesn't get or understand on a grass roors level the power of free market economics and the underlying value production process. He just sees it as something that fits in with his system for keeping score.

Loudoun Insider


Tom Seeman

Pretty good analysis of the current situation in the primary, I think. Mitt Romney is in trouble, and Newt Gingrich has the momentum, and for the reasons you say.

A few comments:

"(Newt Gingrich)can't beat Barack Obama by running against the news media."

I don't see Gingrich beating Obama period. What we have to remember is that right now the candidates are only talking to the Republican/conservative base. Get outside of that circle and everything changes dramatically.

Let's take a look at the latest polling numbers. If you look at the Favorable/Unfavorable ratings as posted in the Washington Examiner for Obama and the top two GOP candidates here's what we have:

Fox News, 1/12-1/14:
Obama, fav/unfav, 51%/46%, +5
Romney, fav/unfav, 45%/38%, +7
Gingrich, fav/unfav, 27%/56%, -29

CBS/NYT, 1/12-1/17:
Obama, fav/unfav, 38%/45%, -7
Romney, fav/unfav, 21%/35%, -14
Gingrich, fav/unfav, 17%/49%, -32

PPP, 1/13-1/17:
Obama, app/dis, 47%/50%, -3
Romney, fav/unfav, 35%/53%, -18
Gingrich, fav/unfav, 26%/60%, -34

As the author of the Washington Examiner piece comments, "America does not love Romney, but boy do they hate Newt."

No kidding.

Don't think it's just the polls above that have Gingrich so far down, because the RealClearPolitics composite of polls
show Obama destroying everyone except Mitt Romney:

Obama v Romney
46.9% Obama
45.0% Romney

Obama v Gingrich
50.6% Obama
39.6% Gingrich

Obama v Santorum
50.1% Obama
40.3% Santorum

This has got to give even the most ardent Gingrich supporter pause. It's one thing to not have a high favorable as long as your negatives are low (meaning people aren't sure about you, the number need not add up to 100). This simply means you have to come across well the a vast body of undecideds. Hard, but hardly impossible.

But high negatives mean you have to first convince them not to actively dislike you, then second convince them to vote for you. This is not just hard, it's just about impossible.

The point is that once you get outside of Republican/conservative circles, Newt Gingrich is hated. And this isn't just a recent development; it's been this way since a year or two after he took over as Speaker.

Mitt Romney can't close the deal with the Republican/conservative base, and Newt can't close it with the independent swing voters. However, if nominated, most of the Republican/conservative base will vote and even campaign for Romney, if for no other reason than because he will most-likely pick a hard-right Tea Party type running mate like Senators Jim DeMint or Marco Rubio, or Representative Michelle Bachmann.

Newt Gingrich, on the other hand, will have the Republican/conservative base all sewn up if he wins. However, he will never win the independent swing voters.

So I retain my assessment of a few weeks ago; it'll be hard for Mitt Romney to beat Obama, very difficult for Rick Santorum, and impossible for Newt Gingrich.

Tom Seeman

Darn, the links I included to the Washington Examiner and RealClearPolitics posts didn't take. Apparently the comments here doesn't take html tags.

Chris, if you want the links please send me an email. Thank you,

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