Guest Post: Razor Thin Margin trends for Obenshain in AG’s Race

Guest Post by Edmund Randolph:

Barring mistakes in a recount - which are distinctly possible, the race for Attorney General is still up for grabs with a razor thin margin of 541 votes separating the two candidates. In addition to proving that one person canvassing a neighborhood, making phone calls, and generally participating at a grass-roots level can make a difference, this race shows how important every little vote is - including absentee ballots. There are two precincts plus one set of absentee ballots left in the AG’s Race. South Hill

Precinct in Mecklenburg County and McGaheysville Precinct in Rockingham County plus the absentee ballots in Mecklenburg County. To analyze how these votes will likely break, here is a quick analysis.  In 2009 when voting for Bob McDonnell, South Hill went for McDonnell by 490 votes and McGaheysville went for McDonnell by 433 votes. Absentee in Mecklenburg went for McDonnell by 114. So if these votes break the way they did for McDonnell in ’09, Obenshain will end up +937 votes - giving Obenshain more than the 541 he needs to win.

In 2009 when voting for Mitt Romney, South Hill went for Romney by 230 votes and McGaheysville went for Romney by 641 votes. Absentee in Mecklenburg went for Obama by 62 votes. So if these votes break the way they did for Romney in ’12, Obenshain will end up +809 votes - giving Obenshain morethan the 541 he needs to win.

The trends indicate that, all things being normal, Obenshain will be ahead going into the recount. That said, the margin will be so thin that the recount could truly make a difference.

 

Comments

[Richard Maxton]

It really was an razor thin margin. Due to calculation facts, 2009 story got this much votes.