Guest Post by Edmund Randolph:
Barring mistakes in a recount - which are distinctly possible, the
race for Attorney General is still up for grabs with a razor thin margin of 541
votes separating the two candidates. In addition to proving that one person
canvassing a neighborhood, making phone calls, and generally participating at a
grass-roots level can make a difference, this race shows how important every
little vote is - including absentee ballots. There are two precincts plus one
set of absentee ballots left in the AG’s Race. South Hill
Precinct in Mecklenburg County and McGaheysville
Precinct in Rockingham County plus the absentee ballots in Mecklenburg County.
To analyze how these votes will likely break, here is a quick analysis. In 2009 when voting for Bob McDonnell, South
Hill went for McDonnell by 490 votes and McGaheysville went for McDonnell by
433 votes. Absentee in Mecklenburg went for McDonnell by 114. So if these votes
break the way they did for McDonnell in ’09, Obenshain will end up +937 votes -
giving Obenshain more than the 541 he needs to win.
In 2009 when voting for Mitt Romney, South Hill
went for Romney by 230 votes and McGaheysville went for Romney by 641 votes.
Absentee in Mecklenburg went for Obama by 62 votes. So if these votes break the
way they did for Romney in ’12, Obenshain will end up +809 votes - giving
Obenshain morethan the 541 he needs to win.
It really was an razor thin margin. Due to calculation facts, 2009 story got this much votes.
Posted by: Richard Maxton | November 11, 2013 at 01:12 PM